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January/February Medium/Long Range Disco


nj2va

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7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Lol. Eps looks very good. Far better than anything we've seen this winter. Even colder than 0z from next weekend through the end of the run. Very nice trough axis in the east, -epo, +pna, and -ao/nao. Not sure what EPS you're looking at but if you don't think it looks good then you should consider a new hobby. 

F him, he would say it looked like crap no matter what but it is dry. Could be a blip but this run suddenly lost that nice train of systems in the long range. 

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Just now, frd said:

I love the looks of it and I like hour 288. There is potential , thats all you really want to see.  Good run  

Getting another decent event may be tough this month for the same reason I've mentioned multiple times... our region tends to do better after a cold pattern sets in for a little while first. If we do get another good event before Feb then this Jan will be top tier for this region. 

For now I'm mostly focused on the first arctic shot next weekend materializing. Without that, the following week doesn't hold much promise. It's unanimous agreement for the artic shot moving in so confidence is pretty high. Never know until you're shivering. Once we cross that bridge I feel pretty good about increasing chances of a meaningful snowfall. 

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26 minutes ago, Snowstorm5921 said:

Yeah.  Not much to get excited about per the EPS

Did you even look at the 500's.  Honestly dude.  Far better than what we've been dealing with.  And if thats not good enough, look at the GEFS/GEPS.  They are all rather similar through 228.  What more do you want?

ecmwf-ens_z500a_us_9.png

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12 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

I think he was referring to the storm chance next weekend which doesn’t look very good on the EPS. 

It's a crappy upper level setup for a coastal. Sharp and progressive troughs rarely work out. Within the realm but I won't spend much time thinking about it unless it's showing up inside of 4-5 days.

The more lilely way something could work would be a light event from a northern stream shortwave tracking close enough. Even if it tracked north of us the antecedent conditions could potentially still be good enough. 

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42 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

F him, he would say it looked like crap no matter what but it is dry. Could be a blip but this run suddenly lost that nice train of systems in the long range. 

The 500’s do look solid but the snowfall mean is pretty anemic right?  Would be nice to see that bump up a bit considering we are in prime climo.  

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52 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

  Lets get it cold, and see what we can gin up from there.  Clippers...whatever.

This. Arctic air is coming down and it's not that much of surprise given how cold the EPS are that qpf is meager. Comes with the territory. I'm totally good with a 1-3/2-4 deal with temps well below freezing. I like seeing the depth of the cold pushing all the way into the deep south. If antecedent conditions are cold enough, we can still snow fairly easy with above normal heights and slp track to the west. Happened in 2014 and was a great storm region wide. I beleive you guys up in PA scored on that one too. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

This. Arctic air is coming down and it's not that much of surprise given how cold the EPS are that qpf is meager. Comes with the territory. I'm totally good with a 1-3/2-4 deal with temps well below freezing. I like seeing the depth of the cold pushing all the way into the deep south. If antecedent conditions are cold enough, we can still snow fairly easy with above normal heights and slp track to the west. Happened in 2014 and was a great storm region wide. I beleive you guys up in PA scored on that one too. 

I think that was Feb 2015. But yes, great storm here.

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1 hour ago, jaydreb said:

The 500’s do look solid but the snowfall mean is pretty anemic right?  Would be nice to see that bump up a bit considering we are in prime climo.  

yeah, thats a fair point, but we've got to change the base state, cause this aint workin, so I'll take the cold, and see where we go from there.

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