CAPE Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: So much for powder here. See busts don’t just happen for us. When I picked a spot 2 days ago Killington was north of the best snow on most guidance but I anticipated a north trend. Not enough apparently as it looks like a sleet fest here now. 12 km NAM LOL. Looks like a close call for awhile on the 3k. Might see some pingers mixed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: So much for powder here. See busts don’t just happen for us. When I picked a spot 2 days ago Killington was north of the best snow on most guidance but I anticipated a north trend. Not enough apparently as it looks like a sleet fest here now. Head up towards Stowe. My boss is spending next week in Smugglers Notch and they have had a ton of snow. He’s been following it all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Didn't everyone know I was straight trolling last night? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Does it make me a bad person that I get joy if NYC/Boston flop on storms like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Didn't everyone know I was straight trolling last night? Lol Since the opinion/analysis of people like you or psu carries much weight here, if either of you troll, perhaps it can be hard to decipher if you're being serious or not, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 31 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I don't think much about it tbh. Looks like it's emerging from the COD, and even though the forecast takes it through some of the bad phases, it looks low in magnitude and heads back towards the COD. Given that, my thought is it shouldn't be having that much impact, and if it is, this isn't much of a Nino. I don't think this really is much of an El Nino, and because of that I am concerned by the MJO. But, the complexities of the MJO make forecasting it very challenging, especially this year for some reason. Not even sure right now how the Pac will evolve in Feb. Conflicting signals are present. Seems very hard to get a cooperative Atlantic and Pacific this year. (so far ) Not making a forecast just sharing longrange thoughts. On a brighter note, I did like seeing the cpc ensembles with more concensus for a diving - AO. I agree with you that if the NJO decays we should be looking better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 16 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Since the opinion/analysis of people like you or psu carries much weight here, if either of you troll, perhaps it can be hard to decipher if you're being serious or not, lol Whenever I post a long range op panel to scare people it's a straight troll. 100% of the time. Looks like all the other regional subs read this thread overnight too. Lol. We had a good week of winter. It was a nice run. Only a week or so away and we can start discussing next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Get your shovels... I mean brooms ready. Sparky storm on tap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Get your shovels... I mean brooms ready. Sparky storm on tap. All snow is good snow, as we inch along towards our statistical mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psurulz Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Looks like the CMC has something cooking in the GOM on the 27th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: So much for powder here. See busts don’t just happen for us. When I picked a spot 2 days ago Killington was north of the best snow on most guidance but I anticipated a north trend. Not enough apparently as it looks like a sleet fest here now. You'll be alright is my hunch. But worse comes to worse drive the 2 hours and you're at Stowe. They'll be all snow unless this thing pulls a 180* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Whenever I post a long range op panel to scare people it's a straight troll. 100% of the time. Looks like all the other regional subs read this thread overnight too. Lol. We had a good week of winter. It was a nice run. Only a week or so away and we can start discussing next winter. Wild emotional swings aside, I think it is completely rational to be concerned that the advertised good H5 look might disappear at any second, never to be seen again. Or else be eternally delayed. As of last night, my perception was that the good look was common across all the guidance (not talking about long-range ops) to varying degrees and was moving forward in time quite nicely. Is that still accurate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Am I wrong to not be giving up on late next week? I know the models are in agreement on all rain middle of the week but I can't help but feel like there's a lot of moving parts and there's still potential. Maybe I'm just being desperate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, Steve25 said: Am I wrong to not be giving up on late next week? I know the models are in agreement on all rain middle of the week but I can't help but feel like there's a lot of moving parts and there's still potential. Maybe I'm just being desperate. No reason at all to bail on a storm that’s like 75 miles off at 6 day leads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 15 minutes ago, psurulz said: Looks like the CMC has something cooking in the GOM on the 27th Somehow how rains on us even though it passes well to our SE in the heart of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 12 minutes ago, Steve25 said: Am I wrong to not be giving up on late next week? I know the models are in agreement on all rain middle of the week but I can't help but feel like there's a lot of moving parts and there's still potential. Maybe I'm just being desperate. I feel the same way. I'm likely wrong, but I think the models are still trying to figure out this pattern. I tend to stay optimistic through the winter. I keep hoping for something to show up again for the storm around Thursday or this weekend. If not, then onto the next week. We still aren’t tracking February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 37 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Wild emotional swings aside, I think it is completely rational to be concerned that the advertised good H5 look might disappear at any second, never to be seen again. Or else be eternally delayed. As of last night, my perception was that the good look was common across all the guidance (not talking about long-range ops) to varying degrees and was moving forward in time quite nicely. Is that still accurate? A significant change is coming no matter what. Of course if it doesnt immediately flipping to cold/snow the acknowledgement of a pattern change will be subjective.... lol. Model skill decreases greatly on the front side of changes and the upcoming period through the end of the month will be no different. Not sure about your area but the mid atlantic generally doesnt do well on the front side of changes towards a colder and blockier regime. The longer it lasts the chances for winter precip keep going up. Will we flip to a classic big snow pattern before Feb? You can never be sure until it's happening. I'm forecasting and steep increase in lack of patience and steep decrease in post quality and critical thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: A significant change is coming no matter what. Of course if it doesnt immediately flipping to cold/snow the acknowledgement of a pattern change will be subjective.... lol. Model skill decreases greatly on the front side of changes and the upcoming period through the end of the month will be no different. Not sure about your area but the mid atlantic generally doesnt do well on the front side of changes towards a colder and blockier regime. The longer it lasts the chances for winter precip keep going up. Will we flip to a classic big snow pattern before Feb? You can never be sure until it's happening. I'm forecasting and steep increase in lack of patience and steep decrease in post quality and critical thinking. That forecast has already come to fruition. It started last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 14 minutes ago, MD Snow said: That forecast has already come to fruition. It started last night. Yea, i guess i accidentally started that. Lol. The trailing wave idea was always low probability. There's plenty of time for changes but for now the cold has really backed off. The strong cold front is now trailing behind that potential and the idea has good support for now. Next weekend is when more significant cold will push into the east coast. That's when the real change happens. Other than the long shot before the arctic front, there's nothing discrete to discuss. Just general ideas. A lot can happen in a weeks time with guidance. All we can do is watch and wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Let's hope all the bickering and panic is a distant memory in a few weeks while we're all getting buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Hypothetically, if our area did get another 4-8" event before Feb, statistically this would go down as a rare and big snow January. If nothing fell it would statistically be a rock solid January. Conversely, probably more than 75% of the people here would violently disagree with those stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 My thinking on the next 7 weeks is this. Mappyville will get plenty of chances. They’ll end up over climo easy. The I95 corridor section of the forum will get at least 2 more accumulating snows. That should put them at or above climo on the year. My reasoning is this... 1. There will not be a shortage of opportunities. Even if we get into extreme blocking/cold there will still be shots at clippers which may favor areas to the north and west. 2. Cold may not be prodominate everywhere but it will be lurking. In my opinion this is the best place to be. Do we really want arctic cold? We all know we don’t want the freezer because more often then not it will shut us out from snow. Give me cold in the neighborhood and I’ll taky my chances with 5-8 events and land a couple. 3. All we need is one coastal bomb and dca/Balt will hit climo. Looking at the LR it appears there will be some tight gradient type events that would favor areas to the north and west. Plenty of chances for everyone. I know this isn’t a real scientific post. I get that. We live in the MA though. A couple things are a guarantee. Super cold almost never verifies. Blocking almost never verifies for as long as forecasted. We almost never get weeks on end of snow on snow on snow. The thing to hang your hat on is this. If we can even get part of the blocking/cold to verify over the next 7 weeks everyone will be fine come the end of March. And at this point that looks very possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, Fozz said: Let's hope all the bickering and panic is a distant memory in a few weeks while we're all getting buried. I don't understand why there's any bickering or panic. I can't find anything other than 10-15 day ops that show anything worth getting mad at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: I don't understand why there's any bickering or panic. I can't find anything other than 10-15 day ops that show anything worth getting mad at. Me neither. The mood change between yesterday evening and late last night through this morning was way out of proportion to what actually changed on the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: I don't understand why there's any bickering or panic. I can't find anything other than 10-15 day ops that show anything worth getting mad at. GEFS 12z looks solid to me at h5 through 384. certainly not a warm pattern. We need the cold first anyway so half the battle is won if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Hypothetically, if our area did get another 4-8" event before Feb, statistically this would go down as a rare and big snow January. If nothing fell it would statistically be a rock solid January. Conversely, probably more than 75% of the people here would violently disagree with those stats. Those of you who received 8-12" last weekend pretty much already have a very good January on the books. And hilariously a lot of the complaining is coming from precisely some of those guys (not you of course). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, Fozz said: Those of you who received 8-12" last weekend pretty much already have a very good January on the books. And hilariously a lot of the complaining is coming from precisely some of those guys (not you of course). I ALWAYS want a regionwide event where we all share similar totals. Unfortunately that is rarely the case... always something in the mix that divides our area. It's uncanny. Miller As are probably the only reliable event that is capable and even those have a nasty habit of mixing south and east of the cities. If we get a miller B with a suppressed track it will even the playing field. That type of deal is very much in the pocket with what i'm seeing down the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 7 minutes ago, BristowWx said: GEFS 12z looks solid to me at h5 through 384. certainly not a warm pattern. We need the cold first anyway so half the battle is won if it verifies. I agree. Looking back over the last day of model runs there's nothing alarming to me. We probably strike out again mid week but then the fun should start by next weekend. Looks cold overall with chances. I gave up looking for the perfect pattern years ago. Just give me a cold enough pattern with enough chances and we can ussually score something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I don't understand why there's any bickering or panic. I can't find anything other than 10-15 day ops that show anything worth getting mad at. Everything still looks on schedule to me unless im missing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 13 minutes ago, BristowWx said: GEFS 12z looks solid to me at h5 through 384. certainly not a warm pattern. We need the cold first anyway so half the battle is won if it verifies. All ens remain solid. The only thing that's changed is the deep cold is going to be a few days later (next weekend) instead of behind the front with the followup wave. Whoop dee do da. If the increasing frequency of cold shots vaporize then damn right i'm going to melt. Lol. Not a damn thing is showing that though. Also, cold doesn't just blast in and stay out of the gate. Maybe once in a while (feb 15) but a carving process is far more common at our latitude. I foresee a carving process with a series of fronts. Gefs 5 day mean looks great to me. It's not perfect however we snow in non perfect far more often because perfect is rare. I do like this panel a lot Eta: 2015 was actually a long drawn out carving process that took 3 weeks to finally get right for us so my feb 2015 comparison is wrong. Jan 2014 was a true turn cold and snow transition after wearing speedos on Chirstmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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