yoda Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Lol What is that? Super -NAO? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 I'd like to know if this pattern really is meteorologically possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: I'd like to know if this pattern really is meteorologically possible The -NAO so strong that it encompasses the CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I'd like to know if this pattern really is meteorologically possible We'll find out in two weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'd like to know if this pattern really is meteorologically possible That is the most Fd up thing I’ve ever seen. Just wow. If that happens ok. That would be a new way to fail but im not wasting any time analyzing that hot mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Shocked but GEFS doesn’t agree with that mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Unfortunate that there is not any cold air around... 00z Euro would have been nice 126 to 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 5 hours ago, Ji said: Last weeks storm was not an enjoyable track. We all had settled on being happy with 1 -2 inches. Bob said his threshold was 1. We didn't even know we were getting 12 till 4 hours before the storm ended. I thought last week’s was quite an event. Overperformers and surprise 8-12 feet snows are really fun to track. If they were all like January ‘16, it wouldn’t be an interesting hobby. People always tell me I should move to somewhere that has snow on snow all winter. But that wouldn’t be fun. I love the MidAtlantic because it’s an adventure every winter. And we do Coastals pretty well when we have the right ingredients. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 You all are Jipolar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 4 hours ago, yoda said: Unfortunate that there is not any cold air around... 00z Euro would have been nice 126 to 144 Where did it all go Yoda isn't it gonna be -300 on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 5 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Gfs just lost the -nao So did the GEPS FWIW and while its the GEPS it's still an ens worth noting and not a bouncy op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: So did the GEPS FWIW and while its the GEPS it's still an ens worth noting and not a bouncy op. A bit too much hyperbole lately with the talk of epic and historic blocking. Not a slam dunk IMO. Its mostly been the GFS/GEFS advertising the strong west based -NAO idea, and it seems to have more of a tendency to go a little nuts with NA blocking in the LR without necessarily verifying. EPS has been pretty consistent in depicting generally higher heights in the NA, but not exactly a blockbuster negative NAO look. I don't like seeing the area of highest h5 height anomalies focused in the WA near the Maritimes- that seemed to be a transient feature previously but it keeps showing up run after run across guidance. I know that can 'work' for us down here in some set ups, and if the TPV hammer really is going to drop, then that would be one case. Your "WAR call" might end up being a decent one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Seriously folks...go back 10-15 pages and read this thread. Its quite amusing the ups and downs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 0z EPS looks generally boring over the next 10 days in the snowfall dept. Maybe something right around day 10 or just beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: A bit too much hyperbole lately with the talk of epic and historic blocking. Not a slam dunk IMO. Its mostly been the GFS/GEFS advertising the strong west based -NAO idea, and it seems to have more of a tendency to go a little nuts with NA blocking in the LR without necessarily verifying. EPS has been pretty consistent in depicting generally higher heights in the NA, but not exactly a blockbuster negative NAO look. I don't like seeing the area of highest h5 height anomalies focused in the WA near the Maritimes- that seemed to be a transient feature previously but it keeps showing up run after run across guidance. I know that can 'work' for us down here in some set ups, and if the TPV hammer really is going to drop, then that would be one case. Your "WAR call" might end up being a decent one. But what are/were the weeklies seeing or missing that were giving those sustained epic looks? I know its not final but I want to learn from this because clearly we arent heading towards those 'epic' blocks up top more of a dampened out look at best.....which isnt necessarily a 100% fail either just so people know. Is this still completely MJO driven? Is this a Nina lag with the NS just ripping and generally progressive still? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Seriously folks...go back 10-15 pages and read this thread. Its quite amusing the ups and downs. Almost everything in nature is a sine wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: But what are/were the weeklies seeing or missing that were giving those sustained epic looks? I know its not final but I want to learn from this because clearly we arent heading towards those 'epic' blocks up top more of a dampened out look at best.....which isnt necessarily a 100% fail either just so people know. How do you know that? Honest question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 12 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Almost everything in nature is a sine wave. And Chuck's posts are the tangent? Eta: wrong poster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: How do you know that? Honest question I dont. I am basing it off the ens starting to mute the signals as we get closer. Maybe 'clearly ' was a poor choice and I should have said 'seems/appears like' instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: But what are/were the weeklies seeing or missing that were giving those sustained epic looks? I know its not final but I want to learn from this because clearly we arent heading towards those 'epic' blocks up top more of a dampened out look at best.....which isnt necessarily a 100% fail either just so people know. Is this still completely MJO driven? Is this a Nina lag with the NS just ripping and generally progressive still? Not sure the weeklies were missing anything. They initialize off of an EPS run as you know. We all know the caveats with LR forecasting, and the weeklies are essentially extrapolating starting from D15. Each run is discrete, and the way we interpret it in evaluating multiple runs going forward is the guidance is continually making adjustments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I dont. I am basing it off the ens starting to mute the signals as we get closer. Maybe 'clearly ' was a poor choice and I should have said 'seems/appears like' instead. You read this thread yesterday as late as 9pm right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: You read this thread yesterday as late as 9pm right? Check-in daily, sure. Lots of ups and downs. I'm not immune to those swings either. I think they are more defined 2nd half of the season particularly during one of wait and frustration for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 I'm not trying to be difficult fellas...I definitely don't know jack but you honestly can't read this thread over several days or weeks and not get vertigo. I get it...its fun to extrapolate and guess that's part of the joy...but nobody here knows what is going to happen down the road...you have an envelope of scenarios and either end or everything in between is in play. I will shut up now...I have to get ready for my 34 and rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I'm not trying to be difficult fellas...I definitely don't know jack but you honestly can't read this thread over several days or weeks and not get vertigo. I get it...its fun to extrapolate and guess that's part of the joy...but nobody here knows what is going to happen down the road...you have an envelope of scenarios and either end or everything in between is in play. I will shut up now...I have to get ready for my 34 and rain This was advertised to be an epic MA snowstorm on guidance not too terribly long ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: This was advertised to be an epic MA snowstorm on guidance not too terribly long ago. Exactly and last weekend was advertised to be a rainstorm for a time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Didnt think eps looked too bad with block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 18z gfs drops another subtle hint that legit blocking is on the wayLets do it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 7 minutes ago, Ji said: 13 hours ago, Bob Chill said: 18z gfs drops another subtle hint that legit blocking is on the way Lets do it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 19 hours ago, psuhoffman said: These long range models are jumping all over the place. Very hard to take them even remotely serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Welp, here we basically are PSU's Jan 20th pattern change, and shockingly enough, its still just two weeks away. I guess the mid week storm is rain now too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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