January/February Medium/Long Range Disco

[frd]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I know it’s not exactly the same but my god i cringe every time someone mentions 1985. And they seem to throw it around like it’s a good thing. That year SUCKED.  It was the least snowy winter here of the whole decade and like the 4th lease snowy winter ever from 124 years of records. That event everyone keeps talking about was a week of extreme cold and then it warmed up. No snow. Total fail. Unless my memory fails me I don’t think there was a big storm of note anywhere along the east coast so it’s not like we just got unlucky. Seriously a part of me screams every time someone says that year. Why does anyone get excited at a comparison to one of the least snowy winters ever???   Because it has a week of cold?  Wtf 

Exactly,  I ran the winter climate numbers for 1985 for my area. A sudden crash of temps and then back up. 

I think JB needs the cold to hit his aggressive minus departure forecast. 

I simply brought it up because I think this Feb might have the cold, ( and more than  a week of it ),  plus storms as well, that were lacking in 1985.

Sort of like the best of both worlds.   I have to do a lot more research as to the whys of that year's lack of snowfall. 

 

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Depends on what you mean by "not that cold"...I remember there being some pretty bitter cold that winter (I have a distinct memory of our water cooler jugs getting completely frozen out on the porch once, lol)

I think the 85 and 94 vortices had -40 to -45C 850s when they entered the US so places well into the Oh Valley and Tn Valley went below 0 both times and by decent margins 

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 Not every vortex entry into US has the same cold with it.  The 2014 visit just wasn’t that cold.  I don’t think 850s were ever below -32C with it so no notable big cities outside of I believe BOS in the northeast went below 0.  The 94 and 85 PV entries into the US were much colder.  

That’s not my point. Why do some seek to be excited by the comparisons to 1985?  That winter was a total fail. 

[clskinsfan]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That’s not my point. Why do some seek to be excited by the comparisons to 1985?  That winter was a total fail. 

How does the upcoming modeled pattern compare to 82? I cant find any upper level maps from that winter. We had some incredible arctic dumps that year.

[Ji]

I dont believe there are any free sites that have indiviudal member outputs except psu ewall but that doesn't have snow output. Just precip and thicknesses. Here's the 18z gefs for NC. Looks pretty good. Most of the snow down south is d8+. Expect it to keep getting better as time goes by.

Remind me to never move down there

[HighStakes]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That’s not my point. Why do some seek to be excited by the comparisons to 1985?  That winter was a total fail. 

I'm not sure either what is so appealing to some about 85. There were several bad bust that year. Early storm in February was supposed to be 6-10 plus ended up 1-2. Another predicted 3-6 in January turned into 1 inch. There were a couple front end thumps that were ok but they went to mix and rain. It basically was a winter that earned a reputation off of one historical arctic blast. 

[HighStakes]

3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

How does the upcoming modeled pattern compare to 82? I cant find any upper level maps from that winter. We had some incredible arctic dumps that year.

Not sure but I would think 82 was more Pacific driven. Probably a pretty significant -epo but that's a guess as I dont remember a lot of blocking that year but I could be wrong. The cold was center in mid January. Most notably the afc championship game in Cincinnati on jan. 10th. The following Sunday the 17th was brutal cold as well. In between the 2 sundays was the decent snow event responsible for the Florida air disaster. 

[Heisy]

Fun times ahead, that is for sure, just be a little patient. The Day 6 event has a shot, but it is an outside shot. Would need initial front and low associated with it to clear as far E as possible. Need good spacing/timing as always. 

Regardless, if that fails it is fine, many possibilities after. Honestly, even though Miller Bs tend to be long shots in our region I have always personally favored them over As only because of their explosive characteristics. 

Imagine a December 30 2000 event that dug deeper & cut off farther W....It isn’t impossible. Especially if the upcoming pattern is progged correctly. 

[Isotherm]

28 minutes ago, frd said:

Exactly,  I ran the winter climate numbers for 1985 for my area. A sudden crash of temps and then back up. 

I think JB needs the cold to hit his aggressive minus departure forecast. 

I simply brought it up because I think this Feb might have the cold, ( and more than  a week of it ),  plus storms as well, that were lacking in 1985.

Sort of like the best of both worlds.   I have to do a lot more research as to the whys of that year's lack of snowfall. 

 

 

54 minutes ago, frd said:

I never post JB but I will once, sorry @psuhoffman

I think severe cold is possible, as we are center stage possibly for the direct impacts of the long duration SSWE. Still ongoing, still to be percieved by the models fully,  but you already see what they are modeling. 

@Isotherm talked about 1985 a few times in the ever progressing SSWE. When the peak cold reaches us I am still not sure, but there was a delay in 1985. This event after tracking it is different in terms of duration and other elements. Even if we do not challenge long term records I am sure the weather will be exciting. 

I am not hyping cold, nor do I desire cold and no storms, I feel we get both. 

It apperars the atmosphere is finally responding and interference is lessening and impact is increasing. 

  

 

 

@frd -- sometimes I see people misusing analogs. A significant commonality on one front does not necessarily intimate that the analog's every attribute should be projected upon the current year. Concordantly, this year will continue to be different from 1985 in terms of sensible weather. The reason I broached 1985 was entirely due to the stratospheric similarities, timing, of the tropospheric response (which has verified well). However, 1985, as a lower AAM year, with low-orbit GWO circuits and Nina-esque background, had a feeble STJ, and thus, moisture was generally lacking. Snowstorms originally almost entirely from the northern stream. This year, we will have a heightened AAM state, w/ nino-esque GWO cycling, and split flow structure w/ much more opportunity for moisture laden storms. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

The war might turn out to be our best friend. Yea it opens the door to some systems flipping but it’s also allowing every wave to amplify and turn up the coast. Given the cold we’re facing that’s not such a bad idea.  

So you finally conceded the war is a bigger player than expected? Going to make or break this stretch heading from late month thru 3rd week Feb imo.

[psuhoffman]

18 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

 

 

@frd -- sometimes I see people misusing analogs. A significant commonality on one front does not necessarily intimate that the analog's every attribute should be projected upon the current year. Concordantly, this year will continue to be different from 1985 in terms of sensible weather. The reason I broached 1985 was entirely due to the stratospheric similarities, timing, of the tropospheric response (which has verified well). However, 1985, as a lower AAM year, with low-orbit GWO circuits and Nina-esque background, had a feeble STJ, and thus, moisture was generally lacking. Snowstorms originally almost entirely from the northern stream. This year, we will have a heightened AAM state, w/ nino-esque GWO cycling, and split flow structure w/ much more opportunity for moisture laden storms. 

I don’t fear a repeat...that year just bugs me like nails on a chalkboard. Lol

[zac1245]

1 hour ago, Waiting on snow said:

It does look good! Thanks for posting!

Lol E13, 10+ inches of snow for almost the whole State of South Carolina. 1 in a million year storm!

[benjammin]

1 minute ago, zac1245 said:

Lol E13, 10+ inches of snow for almost the whole State of South Carolina. 1 in a million year storm!

The blizzard of February 1973 brought some areas of South Carolina two feet of snow and a large area of one foot plus fwiw. 

[Waiting on snow]

4 minutes ago, zac1245 said:

Lol E13, 10+ inches of snow for almost the whole State of South Carolina. 1 in a million year storm!

Lol yeah. I'm in the far nw corner of SC thankfully. I keep my expectations in check and never, ever expect snow to pan out until I see it falling. We fail 90% of storms. I'm sitting on 6 inches for the winter and would love to just break double digits. Even if I have to do it one inch at a time. Lol

[stormtracker]

4 hours ago, yoda said:

For the northern and central part... south and South and east of DCA looks rainy

Homeless guy, here is a house, a stipend for food, 2 weeks worth of clothes and shoes and $50 per month for entertainment

Homeless guy:  Yeah, but that house  isn't all brick and it doesn't have a view.

[jacindc]

Homeless guy, here is a house, a stipend for food, 2 weeks worth of clothes and shoes and $50 per month for entertainment
Homeless guy:  Yeah, but that house  isn't all brick and it doesn't have a view.

This food is terrible! And such small portions!

[Jebman]

2 hours ago, frd said:

All we need are several inches of snow and records could fall with snowcover. Some of the 18z model runs were simply insane looking.    

What kind of minimum temps are we talking about up there? Negative 10? WITHOUT wind, that is

[Jebman]

1985 was a low snow year, but Dale City got in on 2 inches of snow. I remember the night the arctic front hit, the temps on my old Heathkit kept falling, thru the 30s then 20s then TEENS! Then incredibly, into the single numbers!!!!! The low hit -2. We got treated to an absolutely refreshing 35 mph northerly breeze. The high that day was 2 above then that night was scrumptious! It fell to -14, thats without wind chill. I took a nice sweet jebwalk. Fourteen below with that nice breeze was pure heaven. Plus, I jebwalked on pure fresh snow.

[Yeoman]

How are the trailing waves looking?

[Eskimo Joe]

2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 Not every vortex entry into US has the same cold with it.  The 2014 visit just wasn’t that cold.  I don’t think 850s were ever below -32C with it so no notable big cities outside of I believe BOS in the northeast went below 0.  The 94 and 85 PV entries into the US were much colder.  

2014 will always be remembered for the dry and wind.  We ran 6 working house fires in 6 days and the wind kicked our ass on every call.  Lines would freeze 10 minutes into the attack and the wind just wicked away any heat you had once you came out. 

[Buddy1987]

38 minutes ago, Jebman said:

1985 was a low snow year, but Dale City got in on 2 inches of snow. I remember the night the arctic front hit, the temps on my old Heathkit kept falling, thru the 30s then 20s then TEENS! Then incredibly, into the single numbers!!!!! The low hit -2. We got treated to an absolutely refreshing 35 mph northerly breeze. The high that day was 2 above then that night was scrumptious! It fell to -14, thats without wind chill. I took a nice sweet jebwalk. Fourteen below with that nice breeze was pure heaven. Plus, I jebwalked on pure fresh snow.

Lmao Jeb! I think you belong in the North Pole or Antarctica. Either one would suit you well for how quickly a wet T-shirt could freeze to your skin. I do miss having the wicked cold as well, previously living in the northeast all my life until 2011. There really is nothing like going outside and having your damn nose hairs freeze. Just take in a big breath and it really is like something you’ve never experienced. Weird to say but it is super refreshing. 

[frd]

1 hour ago, Isotherm said:

 

 

 

@frd -- sometimes I see people misusing analogs. A significant commonality on one front does not necessarily intimate that the analog's every attribute should be projected upon the current year. Concordantly, this year will continue to be different from 1985 in terms of sensible weather. The reason I broached 1985 was entirely due to the stratospheric similarities, timing, of the tropospheric response (which has verified well). However, 1985, as a lower AAM year, with low-orbit GWO circuits and Nina-esque background, had a feeble STJ, and thus, moisture was generally lacking. Snowstorms originally almost entirely from the northern stream. This year, we will have a heightened AAM state, w/ nino-esque GWO cycling, and split flow structure w/ much more opportunity for moisture laden storms. 

Thanks Tom, I look forward to the end of Jan and Feb, and honestly even into March as well this year. If you happen to provide an update about Feb and the pattern,  please let us know here. A lot of members in the Mid Atlantic forum look forward to them and your work.    

[T. August]

1 hour ago, Waiting on snow said:

Lol yeah. I'm in the far nw corner of SC thankfully. I keep my expectations in check and never, ever expect snow to pan out until I see it falling. We fail 90% of storms. I'm sitting on 6 inches for the winter and would love to just break double digits. Even if I have to do it one inch at a time. Lol

Wow 6”... that seems like a lot. Is it?

[Waiting on snow]

10 minutes ago, T. August said:

Wow 6”... that seems like a lot. Is it?

Depends on who you ask! It's quite common along and north of 85 to get a 6+ inch storm every winter. Problem is it's usually only one and that's your season. GSP used to get double digits every 2 or 3 years from when records started up until 93. Since then not one double digit snow year. And 100 miles southeast Columbia hasn't seen measurable snow in 5 years. Which even there is unusual to go that long. Been a rough decade for warmth and lack of snow down here. 

[Bob Chill]

44 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

How are the trailing waves looking?

Not good. Prob toast unless things change back to having a legitimate cold airmass behind the front. A few days ago the airmass behind the front was pretty good. Now it's weak sauce. Add in the SE ridge being stroger than first thought and the ingredients for a snow event aren't coming together right. Still have enough time for improvements. Needs to start soon though. 

[jaydreb]

GFS has a cutter for Thursday now.  CMC looks identical.  

[Ji]

We suck. Not one thing ever trends our way

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

We suck. Not one thing ever trends our way

Next weekend is when it starts getting good. Both eps and gefs are picking up on it. Cmc has a ns vort dig for oil and turn up the coast and another vort on its heels. I'm not stressed about the follow up deal. We need the cold entrenched first. It's coming. Basically a lock now. 

[WEATHER53]

82 was the famous “Cold Sundays” one weeek apart.

85 was inauguration and I recorded all time low for me -6.

94 was epic afternoon cold with the one day where I was 12 at 11am falling to 1 at 5pm, -6 overnight.

 

[jaydreb]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Next weekend is when it starts getting good. Both eps and gefs are picking up on it. Cmc has a ns vort dig for oil and turn up the coast and another vort on its heels. I'm not stressed about the follow up deal. We need the cold entrenched first. It's coming. Basically a lock now. 

Looking forward to getting some cold. Tired of the rain.