January/February Medium/Long Range Disco

[Bob Chill]

11 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I’d give up the snow for Orlando to get it.  Snow in Disney...that would be something. 

Me too. No kidding either. If we're really heading towards a rare and extreme blocking regime it would be very cool for people who have never seen snow in their life get a freak storm. That kind of stuff never leaves a person's memory. 

[Bob Chill]

18z gefs actually looks half decent for the follow up wave. Better than 12z. Even if it doesn't work out everything looks great next weekend and beyond. Nearly all precip on the ind gefs member solutions is snow from next saturday through the end of the run. 

[clskinsfan]

That arctic dump has a chance to break DC's lowest recorded temperature ever if the models are accurate. That is some severe cold right there.

[Ji]

18z gefs actually looks half decent for the follow up wave. Better than 12z. Even if it doesn't work out everything looks great next weekend and beyond. Nearly all precip on the ind gefs member solutions is snow from next saturday through the end of the run. 

I'm trying to come up with the timing of our Heather A. about 3 weeks from when the block starts will be Pd weekend

[Ji]

Tysons corner this morning. Eerie

[frd]

3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

That arctic dump has a chance to break DC's lowest recorded temperature ever if the models are accurate. That is some severe cold right there.

All we need are several inches of snow and records could fall with snowcover. Some of the 18z model runs were simply insane looking.    

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

18z gefs actually looks half decent for the follow up wave. Better than 12z. Even if it doesn't work out everything looks great next weekend and beyond. Nearly all precip on the ind gefs member solutions is snow from next saturday through the end of the run. 

I'm trying to come up with the timing of our Heather A. about 3 weeks from when the block starts will be Pd weekend

As good a guess as any. If these crazy extreme blocks showing up materialize then it's pretty reasonable to expect a neg ao/nao for all of Feb. Maybe into March. Long duration blocking pulses over time. We could have multiple shots at a big storm as the ao and or nao relaxes before rebuilding. I'll dig up my 7 day AO graphs centered on big storms in the past. 

It's entirely possible that the block will be shortlived but there's a good historical precedent arguing that it won't be hit and run. 

[CAPE]

Hopefully we get some snow before/as this happens..

[Wonderdog]

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

Hopefully we get some snow before/as this happens..

If this verifies, Havana will be digging out while we freeze to death.

[CAPE]

Just now, Wonderdog said:

If this verifies, Havana will be digging out while we freeze to death.

Maybe not Havana, but a decent chance Savannah will be.

[frd]

Like psu said if blocking is extreme and other pieces of the flow fall into place maybe redevelopment can take place further South than a typical Miller B. HM  spoke of 1978 a week or more ago. Earthlight is mentioning a <synoptic support for amplification of arctic disturbances in the Northeast US. >

All sort of possibilities coming up. 

If the atmosphere is going to time the connection from downwelling I would guess that takes place near Feb 15th.  Other factors like increasing AAM and the better phases of the GWO would increase the duration of the best blocking.   So we may see two peak blocking episodes end of Jan into early Feb and later Feb into March. 

 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, Wentzadelphia said:

We’d likely see our shot at a majo event as the PV starts to lift NE obviously & block starts to calm...Heather A event. 

Yep that was our Nov storm an Archambault event.

[psuhoffman]

18z fv3 is wave after wave coming at us 

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

18z fv3 is wave after wave coming at us 

18z gefs agrees

[eurojosh]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

18z gefs agrees

I'll pray for E16 and put my money on E11.

[Bob Chill]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

18z fv3 is wave after wave coming at us 

I remember getting burned out tracking storms in March 2014. I was literally looking forward to the end of it all. It was the ultimate snow event tracking winter second to none. I want to feel that way again but not until April 10th. 

[CAPE]

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

18z fv3 is wave after wave coming at us 

That is a pretty epic run.

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

18z gefs agrees

The war might turn out to be our best friend. Yea it opens the door to some systems flipping but it’s also allowing every wave to amplify and turn up the coast. Given the cold we’re facing that’s not such a bad idea.  

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I remember getting burned out tracking storms in March 2014. I was literally looking forward to the end of it all. It was the ultimate snow event tracking winter second to none. I want to feel that way again but not until April 10th. 

That was a super fun winter overall. Good times.  I think it also featured the lame Tenman "cold" thread turned epic poetry thread.

[Chris78]

20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

18z fv3 is wave after wave coming at us 

Storm chances every 3 days. Gotta like that. And all coming at us from the southwest. 

[frd]

I never post JB but I will once, sorry @psuhoffman

I think severe cold is possible, as we are center stage possibly for the direct impacts of the long duration SSWE. Still ongoing, still to be percieved by the models fully,  but you already see what they are modeling. 

@Isotherm talked about 1985 a few times in the ever progressing SSWE. When the peak cold reaches us I am still not sure, but there was a delay in 1985. This event after tracking it is different in terms of duration and other elements. Even if we do not challenge long term records I am sure the weather will be exciting. 

I am not hyping cold, nor do I desire cold and no storms, I feel we get both. 

It apperars the atmosphere is finally responding and interference is lessening and impact is increasing. 

  

[Waiting on snow]

27 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

18z gefs agrees

What's a good free site to see the GEFS down my way in the Carolina's?

[das]

45 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Long duration blocking pulses over time. We could have multiple shots at a big storm as the ao and or nao relaxes before rebuilding.

Exactly right, @Bob ChiII.  One of the things to watch for. 

[Bob Chill]

16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The war might turn out to be our best friend. Yea it opens the door to some systems flipping but it’s also allowing every wave to amplify and turn up the coast. Given the cold we’re facing that’s not such a bad idea.  

Maybe we'll actually need the mjo to cycle through warm phases to give us storms instead of an uber block 8-1-2 that does nothing except suppress to the gulf coast. 

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, frd said:

I never post JB but I will once, sorry @psuhoffman

I think severe cold is possible, as we are center stage possibly for the direct impacts of the long duration SSWE. Still ongoing, still to be percieved by the models fully,  but you already see what they are modeling. 

@Isotherm talked about 1985 a few times in the ever progressing SSWE. When the peak cold reaches us I am still not sure, but there was a delay in 1985. This event after tracking it is different in terms of duration and other elements. Even if we do not challenge long term records I am sure the weather will be exciting. 

I am not hyping cold, nor do I desire cold and no storms, I feel we get both. 

It apperars the atmosphere is finally responding and interference is lessening and impact is increasing. 

  

I know it’s not exactly the same but my god i cringe every time someone mentions 1985. And they seem to throw it around like it’s a good thing. That year SUCKED.  It was the least snowy winter here of the whole decade and like the 4th lease snowy winter ever from 124 years of records. That event everyone keeps talking about was a week of extreme cold and then it warmed up. No snow. Total fail. Unless my memory fails me I don’t think there was a big storm of note anywhere along the east coast so it’s not like we just got unlucky. Seriously a part of me screams every time someone says that year. Why does anyone get excited at a comparison to one of the least snowy winters ever???   Because it has a week of cold?  Wtf 

[Bob Chill]

9 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

What's a good free site to see the GEFS down my way in the Carolina's?

I dont believe there are any free sites that have indiviudal member outputs except psu ewall but that doesn't have snow output. Just precip and thicknesses. Here's the 18z gefs for NC. Looks pretty good. Most of the snow down south is d8+. Expect it to keep getting better as time goes by.

[Waiting on snow]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I dont believe there are any free sites that have indiviudal member outputs except psu ewall but that doesn't have snow output. Just precip and thicknesses. Here's the 18z gefs for NC. Looks pretty good. Most of the snow down south is d8+. Expect it to keep getting better as time goes by.

It does look good! Thanks for posting!

[Maestrobjwa]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I know it’s not exactly the same but my god i cringe every time someone mentions 1985. And they seem to throw it around like it’s a good thing. That year SUCKED.  It was the least snowy winter here of the whole decade and like the 4th lease snowy winter ever from 124 years of records. That event everyone keeps talking about was a week of extreme cold and then it warmed up. No snow. Total fail. Unless my memory fails me I don’t think there was a big storm of note anywhere along the east coast so it’s not like we just got unlucky. Seriously a part of me screams every time someone says that year. Why does anyone get excited at a comparison to one of the least snowy winters ever???   Because it has a week of cold?  Wtf 

Lol That's how I feel whenever I hear a low-snow analog year thrown around like it was epic...blech

[SnowGoose69]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I know it’s not exactly the same but my god i cringe every time someone mentions 1985. And they seem to throw it around like it’s a good thing. That year SUCKED.  It was the least snowy winter here of the whole decade and like the 4th lease snowy winter ever from 124 years of records. That event everyone keeps talking about was a week of extreme cold and then it warmed up. No snow. Total fail. Unless my memory fails me I don’t think there was a big storm of note anywhere along the east coast so it’s not like we just got unlucky. Seriously a part of me screams every time someone says that year. Why does anyone get excited at a comparison to one of the least snowy winters ever???   Because it has a week of cold?  Wtf 

 Not every vortex entry into US has the same cold with it.  The 2014 visit just wasn’t that cold.  I don’t think 850s were ever below -32C with it so no notable big cities outside of I believe BOS in the northeast went below 0.  The 94 and 85 PV entries into the US were much colder.  

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

 Not every vortex entry into US has the same cold with it.  The 2014 visit just wasn’t that cold.  I don’t think 850s were ever below -32C with it so no notable big cities outside of I believe BOS in the northeast went below 0.  The 94 and 85 PV entries into the US were much colder.  

Depends on what you mean by "not that cold"...I remember there being some pretty bitter cold that winter (I have a distinct memory of our water cooler jugs getting completely frozen out on the porch once, lol)