Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Non joking post... I went back and compared ens runs for the last 4 days and being totally honest it looks like we're going to struggle for snow through close to the end of the month. Will it get cold to very cold before then? Yes, it's getting close to a lock that much of the conus east of the rockies is going to get hit flush as the tpv gets displaced southward and the neg nao builds. That should evolve during d10-15 because every piece of guidance show the same thing. When it drops down I have a strong hunch it's going to (temporarily) crush storm chances. Prior to that we will get cold shots but they will be progressive and fairly short lived. Clippers or weak shortwaves are always possible but I don't think we're getting any juiced snowstorms until the tpv retreats to eastern Canada (prob not until sometime during the last 4 days or so of January at the earliest from what I'm seeing). Unfortunately we're going to have to deal with 2 or maybe 3 storms that track overhead or west of us. Could one of these snow on us? Maybe but imho the best chance will be eroding CAD as a storm approaches. I don't see any obvious features that could lock in a cold HP. I'm not expecting any confluence at all to slow the escape of hp to the north or shunt a storm underneath us due to the ridging in general 50/50 area. However, you can never rule out a well timed transient 50/50 or something like that. If you go back and look at previous neg nao periods it's far more commom for us to get a good snowstorm when the nao is rising and not falling ( hopefully it will start falling around d9-11). I'm not expecting a total shutout through the end of Jan. Anytime there's cold air around our area and active flow we can get an event in a flawed pattern. We're not out of the game but strong shortwaves will likely rain on us through the next 10 days. Once we get to the 25th or so it looks like suppressed/dry pattern until the tpv starts to retreat (hopefully retreating and hitting a block in the Davis Straight). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: That was the one! My parents had "estimated" 16" with 3-4' drifts. Pics and video from my dad were insane. The satellite image of that storm is super impressive, not to mention the rate at which it deepened. It's a shame that it missed us to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 hours ago, Ji said: the 3 towns that irk me the most when they get more snow is Raleigh, Richmond and Columbus smarta**.....You know I actually have reason to root for DC now....my daughter moved there for her job this fall and she definitely has the snow weenie gene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 17 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: Looking at today’s runs for the ops and ensembles I know pessimism is certainly understandable but here’s my take moving through end of January through early February: The WAR seems to be progressing on models to the NAO domain and flipping it negative towards the end of these runs. Been pretty consistent on GFS and seems like it’s heading that way on the euro. Having the AO flip very negative gives us an opportunity when it starts to relax. Some of our bigger events tend to come on the tail ends of big telleconnection changes (NAO flip, or AO, etc) If we can maintain some semblance of a split flow and a decently active SS, I really think we can see the first or 2nd week in February pop. I know there’s a lot of unknowns in my hypothetical but I really like that the AO flips strong and the NAO seemlying is going to do the same. Get through the cold suppressive period for a short time and hopefully there’s a nice surprise at the end of the tunnel. Lol- we were typing at the same time and conveyed the same thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: Lol- we were typing at the same time and conveyed the same thoughts Wow, that’s a huge compliment. I feel honored, no bs! I’ve read yours and psu’s and other really good posters on here for years. I started back in the Eastern weather forum days before the conversion. Never spoke cause I had no clue what to say. Everything I’ve learned I’ve picked up from you guys. I know my analysis needs work and is more remedial in nature then yours and the other experience Mets, etc. but it’s nice to know it’s come full circle. I appreciate that. Means a lot to just another winter weather weenie hoping for a little snow in his life Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Non joking post... I went back and compared ens runs for the last 4 days and being totally honest it looks like we're going to struggle for snow through close to the end of the month. Will it get cold to very cold before then? Yes, it's getting close to a lock that much of the conus east of the rockies is going to get hit flush as the tpv gets displaced southward and the neg nao builds. That should evolve during d10-15 because every piece of guidance show the same thing. When it drops down I have a strong hunch it's going to (temporarily) crush storm chances. Prior to that we will get cold shots but they will be progressive and fairly short lived. Clippers or weak shortwaves are always possible but I don't think we're getting any juiced snowstorms until the tpv retreats to eastern Canada (prob not until sometime during the last 4 days or so of January at the earliest from what I'm seeing). Unfortunately we're going to have to deal with 2 or maybe 3 storms that track overhead or west of us. Could one of these snow on us? Maybe but imho the best chance will be eroding CAD as a storm approaches. I don't see any obvious features that could lock in a cold HP. I'm not expecting any confluence at all to slow the escape of hp to the north or shunt a storm underneath us due to the ridging in general 50/50 area. However, you can never rule out a well timed transient 50/50 or something like that. If you go back and look at previous neg nao periods it's far more commom for us to get a good snowstorm when the nao is rising and not falling ( hopefully it will start falling around d9-11). I'm not expecting a total shutout through the end of Jan. Anytime there's cold air around our area and active flow we can get an event in a flawed pattern. We're not out of the game but strong shortwaves will likely rain on us through the next 10 days. Once we get to the 25th or so it looks like suppressed/dry pattern until the tpv starts to retreat (hopefully retreating and hitting a block in the Davis Straight). ...i just remember what certain people were saying just 12 days ago about our prospects for the rest of January.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, MD Snow said: ...i just remember what certain people were saying just 12 days ago about our prospects for the rest of January.... Yea, looked like cold and precip chances would be likely (which is still true) but getting them to combine overhead over the next 10 day looks more challenging now that leads have shortened and the picture is becoming more clear. We did score a nice storm and have another potential light event in the short range so Jan definitely broke in our favor already. Wall to wall? Nasomuch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Via tombo from the SNE thread. Probably already too late for us, but good post to read 13 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: I know we all want what the ukmet shows, and that is a non phase with the tpv lobe that swings around. Here are the last 3 runs of the euro, including the 18z run. Can see each run of the euro continues to delay the northern stream interaction and almost tries to make it just a separate southern stream wave by itself. Can also see in response to the pac nw low the ridge in the west is losing amplitude and rolling over pushing east. Just thought I would share Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 hour ago, Fozz said: Was that the storm in which CAPE went to Rehoboth, or was it another system after that? That was the one. Da "bomb cyclone". I mean. just look at this sat image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 45 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: For Saturday /....big timing spread (12z) Gfs- Top Euro Uk i think we want slower, so the high building in is out ahead of the ss or at least not lagging behind it. otherwise, it looks like the storm is finding a weakness and cutting too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: the snow just wants to visit @Jebman =) calling @MillvilleWx you may be close to some fluff too.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, losetoa6 said: I think it was a 956 mb ish low? ...just freakinnnnnn incredible Best legit blizzard I have experienced- maybe the second storm in Feb 2010 was very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Non joking post... I went back and compared ens runs for the last 4 days and being totally honest it looks like we're going to struggle for snow through close to the end of the month. Will it get cold to very cold before then? Yes, it's getting close to a lock that much of the conus east of the rockies is going to get hit flush as the tpv gets displaced southward and the neg nao builds. That should evolve during d10-15 because every piece of guidance show the same thing. When it drops down I have a strong hunch it's going to (temporarily) crush storm chances. Prior to that we will get cold shots but they will be progressive and fairly short lived. Clippers or weak shortwaves are always possible but I don't think we're getting any juiced snowstorms until the tpv retreats to eastern Canada (prob not until sometime during the last 4 days or so of January at the earliest from what I'm seeing). Unfortunately we're going to have to deal with 2 or maybe 3 storms that track overhead or west of us. Could one of these snow on us? Maybe but imho the best chance will be eroding CAD as a storm approaches. I don't see any obvious features that could lock in a cold HP. I'm not expecting any confluence at all to slow the escape of hp to the north or shunt a storm underneath us due to the ridging in general 50/50 area. However, you can never rule out a well timed transient 50/50 or something like that. If you go back and look at previous neg nao periods it's far more commom for us to get a good snowstorm when the nao is rising and not falling ( hopefully it will start falling around d9-11). I'm not expecting a total shutout through the end of Jan. Anytime there's cold air around our area and active flow we can get an event in a flawed pattern. We're not out of the game but strong shortwaves will likely rain on us through the next 10 days. Once we get to the 25th or so it looks like suppressed/dry pattern until the tpv starts to retreat (hopefully retreating and hitting a block in the Davis Straight). Hopefully this isn’t like 1985. That would be a nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying Bouncy House Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Hi all, I've been a lurker for a while now and decided to sign up. I haven't seen any posts regarding CAD signals for the start of the event this coming weekend. Any indication that may be a problem in certain areas along the I-81 corridor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 smarta**.....You know I actually have reason to root for DC now....my daughter moved there for her job this fall and she definitely has the snow weenie gene. If we were still one big forum...you would be insufferable right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 @Bob Chill one thing that could save us...the tpv drops pretty far west on some runs. That would open the door for systems to run the coast and could even open the opportunity for a monster phased system like the blizzard of 66. That was such a pattern I believe. If it comes down on top of us then your right. Squash city. I’m very curious what the analogs will show. I’m kinda frustrated I thought today’s day 11 centered on the 26 would start to indicate some blocking but even though it’s shoeing a bit on the GEFS by then it’s not on the analog height anomalies yet. Guess I have to wait one more day. But I want to see what it spits out once the -NAO -epo with the displaced tpv shows up in analogs. Might be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 6 minutes ago, Flying Bouncy House said: Hi all, I've been a lurker for a while now and decided to sign up. I haven't seen any posts regarding CAD signals for the start of the event this coming weekend. Any indication that may be a problem in certain areas along the I-81 corridor? as of now, from Chambersburg and pts NE yes, but right now you might be a little too far south for much trouble other than early on. Any flatter w/ the ridging/digging of the system and you might hold some cold especially if the HP in NNY holds. Good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 The flip to a -NAO stayed in place on the 27th on the eps and GEFS today so it’s moving forward in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AU74 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 17 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: For me .. #1 - (93') #2 - (2-10-10) 2nd Feb blizzard 1966 there were drifts over 10' in my White Oak Maryland neighborhood. Endless fun for my seven year old self. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I'm thinking from Frederick/ Hagerstown on north myself for front end frozen chances . Of note ...Saturday morning most wake up to lows in the 20-25 range and northern+west tier doesn't likely get above freezing . Yea...models are notoriously too quick moving low level cold out esp at range. Here we are about 100 hours out . I'm leaning frozen up this way at onset . Euro actually bumped the strength of the high pressure north of New York at 12z a bit as precip is approaching. yeah, I think your right that frozen starts down there, but as track is now, even w/ HP seeming to hold ground, LP track scours the 850's after a few hours. I'm in your camp and have been for days in that any less ridging out front, and track could adjust east as we have a major push of cold coming, so a correction SE isnt out of the realm IMO. Im rooting for you to be more right than wrong, and for a longer time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 20 minutes ago, Ji said: 2 hours ago, buckeye said: smarta**.....You know I actually have reason to root for DC now....my daughter moved there for her job this fall and she definitely has the snow weenie gene. If we were still one big forum...you would be insufferable right now I blame climo....that and spending years posting with one of the greatest forum trolls in internet history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 calling [mention=9895]MillvilleWx[/mention] you may be close to some fluff too..I’ll be back home, but that stuff will be way too my south. Plenty cold though....sigh . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, buckeye said: I blame climo....that and spending years posting with one of the greatest forum trolls in internet history. Did you know he is now uncanny? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Our favorite model just gave us the look we need at 84hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Hecs incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Our favorite model just gave us the look we need at 84hrsLittle early for the Cras don’t you think? . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 It's the NAM, but it is different out west at H5 vs globals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, stormtracker said: It's the NAM, but it is different out west at H5 vs globals Ridge on the west coast is like 200 miles further east than the GFS. That’s the change we need to see on the globals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ji said: Hecs incoming Because of the confluence pressing down and the h5 low in W TX and the location of the ridge out west? I know it wont happen, just trying to learn something here real quick Before the GFS gets on board lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, LP08 said: Ridge on the west coast is like 200 miles further east than the GFS. That’s the change we need to see on the globals Plus it has a vort diving down to the northwest of the great lakes that should suppress the flow over the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.