Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 @Ji Here's what I'm talking about 12z run yesterday @ 192 12z run today at 168. Only slight differences... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I take back what I said about good track. There's a pesky lakes low creating weakness and it runs west of us. when this storm fails...we got the one right behind it to help us fail again haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: @Ji Here's what I'm talking about 12z run yesterday @ 192 12z run today at 168. Only slight differences... yes...but thankfully its consistent with the 50/50 high:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Ji said: yes...but thankfully its consistent with the 50/50 high:( If the tpv drops down the 50/50 high could be our best friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 even with todays awful Euro run...ill still take that than bitter cold/dry and congrats panama city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Euro.. Look at those 2 meter temps in the northern plains day 9...wow It's coming here too but check out this gradient before the onslaught. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 And now the euro spits a full continental block. lol. Wild times are brewing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 @buckeye should frame this run. One of the nicest ohio weenie runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Day 10 850s approaching -30 across the area... that's vodka cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Considering what the euro op just spit out with the progression d5-10, I'm expecting some interesting ensemble solutions here shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: And now the euro spits a full continental block. lol. Wild times are brewing... Ha, many blizzards are coming, traversing West to East..... Did someone say there was a concern with blocking not showing up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: And now the euro spits a full continental block. lol. Wild times are brewing... That’s too much of a good thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: That’s too much of a good thing Not when you extrapolate the huge ridge above the tpv sliding into the Davis straight area and trapping the tpv in SE canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: And now the euro spits a full continental block. lol. Wild times are brewing... Funny, we are not looking at week 4 anymore on the weeklies ! Getting closer . Whatever it is getting closer, it's getting closer, so get ready. Seriously though, very impressive ! EPS should be an eye openner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 For fun, check out the WCs at 240. -20 to -25 in DC and approaching -45 out in the mountains 2mT are below zero as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, yoda said: For fun, check out the WCs at 240. -20 to -25 in DC and approaching -45 out in the mountains Now that is my idea of fun! Wind Chill Warning? Maybe so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Wind chills are -50 to -65 at 240 in MN/IA/SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anyweather Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 To track...per chance to dream... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I'm going to be honest, even though snow is no guarantee, I'm very happy that at least it appears the next couple weeks will be cold for the most part. A little bummed we're going to go from teens on Monday to rain on Wednesday of next week, but the prospect of the snow event right after that is nice! Just glad we're out of that December pattern! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 14 minutes ago, yoda said: Wind chills are -50 to -65 at 240 in MN/IA/SD This is the Mongolian express I referenced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Things look pretty good today. Heopefully holds the line over next 3-5 days then I think we start digging into some real chances. Interesting note about the next week (Thursday-Friday deal) 12z gfs is probably wrong about multiple waves riding the boundary — will most likely consolidate and form one wave for better or worse. But if we were to receive to independent bouts of snow from the same front and it again lasted more than 30hrs, it would be (by my estimation) the first time in my 34 years I’ve seen two 30+ hour continuous events for the same winter in my life time in NoVA. Please correct me if I’m wrong Looking forward to good times next 3-4 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Follow up wave doesn't look good at all on the eps (could be group think or could be a sign it's not going to work). Next weekend is wild. Quite a bit of agreement that sub zero temps get close or overhead. A number of ens members do snow on us but they do it all kinds of different ways. The takeway is very cold air is probably coming and there's a chance it combines with precip. That's about all I can say. Spread is crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: There's some sort of multi-decadal cycle with the NAO. I don't have a theory or any knowledge as to why but if you look at the historical NAO data, phases happen in bunches. 10 years ago and goose could fart flying over the Davis Straight and a block would form. Then the big blue ball took over. It's possible that this year marks the beginning of another cycle of -NAO winters. Not every winter but more often than not. We'll see how it goes over the next 3-5 years. Huh...that's interesting! (And let me guess...the snowy 60s' were a decade where the -NAO was on? Lol And if that's true, I wonder if we had the opposite in the early-mid 70s? Ack) And let's get these geese some beans, shall we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 The GEPS have been consistently signaling rain for the 24th, and they still are. But now a couple of members are showing big snowstorms around the 30th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Will be cool if it's consistent for at least one more run this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Follow up wave doesn't look good at all on the eps (could be group think or could be a sign it's not going to work). Next weekend is wild. Quite a bit of agreement that sub zero temps get close or overhead. A number of ens members do snow on us but they do it all kinds of different ways. The takeway is very cold air is probably coming and there's a chance it combines with precip. That's about all I can say. Spread is crazy. Can you be a little less specific? LOL! Cold seems a lock! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Follow up wave doesn't look good at all on the eps (could be group think or could be a sign it's not going to work). Next weekend is wild. Quite a bit of agreement that sub zero temps get close or overhead. A number of ens members do snow on us but they do it all kinds of different ways. The takeway is very cold air is probably coming and there's a chance it combines with precip. That's about all I can say. Spread is crazy. @Bob Chill o you recall the evolution last year, early Jan 2018, and what caused that bomb cyclone to form and produce blizzard warnings at Dewey Beach and you and I missed it. Any similarities or options such as that on the table with the leading edge of below zero F airmass coming this way. And the blocking in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 25 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Follow up wave doesn't look good at all on the eps (could be group think or could be a sign it's not going to work). Next weekend is wild. Quite a bit of agreement that sub zero temps get close or overhead. A number of ens members do snow on us but they do it all kinds of different ways. The takeway is very cold air is probably coming and there's a chance it combines with precip. That's about all I can say. Spread is crazy. There are several members including the control that have a south to north storm that runs the whole coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 12 minutes ago, frd said: @Bob Chill o you recall the evolution last year, early Jan 2018, and what caused that bomb cyclone to form and produce blizzard warnings at Dewey Beach and you and I missed it. Any similarities or options such as that on the table with the leading edge of below zero F airmass coming this way. And the blocking in place. It's possible. The only thorn I see is Ji's favorite 50/50 high. lol. If a big storm ran the coast the threat of it coming inland is bigger than scraping the coast or OTS. EPS strongly agrees with the frigid outbreak d9-11 and ends up looking pretty similar to the GEFS @ d15. From how it looks right now, our chances for wintry precip go way up starting next weekend and beyond. Not a dry look on either the GEFS or EPS at the beginning of Feb. Another good run even though the follow up wave looks pretty crappy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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