JakkelWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, StantonParkHoya said: Quick question for my own understanding: at what point does sun angle start making a difference in marginal events? Early Feb? Mid-Feb? Oh boy. Sun angle doesn't really matter until March.. By that point, you need heavy rates to cave surfaces and the snow would melt a couple days later anyways depending on what time of march it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: dude a full CONUS trough with that kind of blocking is a great look. A HUGE full lat PNA/EPO ridge is great if you want to hit -20 but not necessarily what we want to get a lot of snow if we have blocking. Now in a progressive pattern without any NAO blocking...a PNA ridge is a must. This is all a game of moving parts and different ways to get the longwave pattern right for us. There are multiple ways to do it but the one that gives us by far the most wiggle room and leeway is a west based NAO block. There are a LOT of ways to work with that. What is the advantage of a broad trough over a sharp one? I would think a sharper one with greater amplitude would create stronger storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, JakkelWx said: Oh boy. Sun angle doesn't really matter until March.. By that point, you need heavy rates to cave surfaces and the snow would melt a couple days later anyways depending on what time of march it is I'm not sure that is true considering February sun angle is similar to that of late October, early November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, StantonParkHoya said: Quick question for my own understanding: at what point does sun angle start making a difference in marginal events? Early Feb? Mid-Feb? Depends how marginal...it can start to matter in late February if we are talking a very light event with near freezing temperatures during the middle of the day. Generally though if we are talking decent rates and surface temps around freezing or below...we are good through the first week of March. But even after that... we have seen SO MANY examples of how it can work if we get the right pattern and a cold enough profile even after March 10th. The issue is it becomes increasingly hard to get that as we move later in the year. The much bigger problem is the dumb angle which seems to have a major impact 365 days a year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, JakkelWx said: Oh boy. Sun angle doesn't really matter until March.. By that point, you need heavy rates to cave surfaces and the snow would melt a couple days later anyways depending on what time of march it is Depends on rates. I just watched 6 hours of light snow and snizzle melt on contact on hard surfaces at 29F on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said: What is the advantage of a broad trough over a sharp one? I would think a sharper one with greater amplitude would create stronger storms? Sharp trough can help spin up stronger storms but the tradeoff is a much narrower qpf field. Broad troughs allow storms to really draw in the moisture so a weaker lp system can dump more QPF over a wider area. Personally, I prefer a broad trough and more W-E trajectory vs a sharp trough with a S-N trajectory. The margin for error is typically a lot larger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said: What is the advantage of a broad trough over a sharp one? I would think a sharper one with greater amplitude would create stronger storms? If you have a monster ridge in the west along with blocking and a 50/50 low its going to create an extreme NW to SE flow into the east and just overwhelm the pattern with cold and likely push the baroclinic zone way off to our southeast. A broad trough like that will allow systems to come at us from the west...without a block that would be bad but with a block they will generally be forced under us. They might not be BIG HECS level storms but we could be talking waves every few days coming at us and lately just about anything seems to have a ton of QPF with it so... Sometimes something that would be bad in one pattern is good in another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 15 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: It didn't work last March. Aleutian region I would argue is more important than the NAO. Chuuuuuuck. Guess what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Thanks @Bob Chill and @psuhoffman Indeed, it would be nice to have a larger than normal margin of error and less white knuckle tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Chuuuuuuck. Guess what? I’m worried about the pattern in between this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We had two accumulating snow events into DC last March. One was a borderline warning level event on March 20th! I am almost 100% certain that would have been a HECS level event had it been February and not March 20th. Not sure what "didnt work" about the pattern last year except it came too late to reach full potential. Drive up I-5 in California to Washington state and tell me if you see any snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 11 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Oh boy. Sun angle doesn't really matter until March.. I wish.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, Yeoman said: I wish.. doesn't matter and doesn't really matter are different things obviously we'd snow a lot more here if the sun never came out at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Didn't realize I was talking about sun angle in January! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 7 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Drive up I-5 in California to Washington state and tell me if you see any snow. No thanks. Why don’t you and report back to us in about 8 weeks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Euro at 144 has a 1000mb SLP near Mobile, AL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Jesus Christ we have the best pattern since 2010 heading into our prime climo and now we’re going to talk about sun angle and snowpack in Oregon? Oooooook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Sun is still dead right now, increasing influence of a marginal nature thru Feb and then rapid increase in influence after first week of March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Jandurin said: doesn't matter and doesn't really matter are different things obviously we'd snow a lot more here if the sun never came out at all Just speaking for myself living near sea level, the reduced sun angle of Dec and Jan can overcome the challenges that folks at increased elevation don't have to worry about until late Feb and March. To make a blanket statement that sun angle isn't an issue until March goes entirely against what I see year in and year out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 19 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Depends on rates. I just watched 6 hours of light snow and snizzle melt on contact on hard surfaces at 29F on Sunday. Exactly. There's so much more to consider beyond sun angle. Honestly, if you get a good snow storm with rates it doesn't matter, even in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, yoda said: Euro at 144 has a 1000mb SLP near Mobile, AL looks odd 850s seem really warm everywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Euro holds the big trailing storm idea but there's no hp anywhere near where we need it for a cold feed. However, 6 days out and a lot can change. Track is good. Temps are not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, ryanconway63 said: looks odd 850s seem really warm everywhere The cold front hasn’t passed yet so it makes sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said: The cold front hasn’t passed yet so it makes sense to me. There's not even really a "cold front'. It's a cool front at best as there is no effective HP behind it. We're going to get a lot of looks on this one and there's plenty of time for things to change (in any direction). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Lol 168... Euro 968mb on the border of Canada and Vermont Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I take back what I said about good track. There's a pesky lakes low creating weakness and it runs west of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Euro holds the big trailing storm idea but there's no hp anywhere near where we need it for a cold feed. However, 6 days out and a lot can change. Track is good. Temps are not. is there anything dr no will ever not say no to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Ji said: is there anything dr no will ever not say no to? I have a hunch it's going to toss out a snowstorm solution before the weekend is over. Probably won't look anything like what we're seeing right now. The changes going on in the high latitudes are going to cause significant swings in model solutions until further notice. That's my theory and I'm sticking to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: is there anything dr no will ever not say no to? Nope. Edit: On to 0z. Then the baby ones are always fun. I gotta say I was hoping for more today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 btw.....these storms are racing. the Euro goes from the gulf to Maine in one day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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