yoda Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 12z CMC continues to go for a cutter/Ohio Valley track for the 23rd-25th time period threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, yoda said: 12z CMC continues to go for a cutter/Ohio Valley track GFS looks good through 138 again. The NS vort on the CMC just washes out so the boundary never gets past us so it opens the door for it to run west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, LP08 said: GFS looks good through 138 again. The NS vort on the CMC just washes out so the boundary never gets past us so it opens the door for it to run west. Yeah it sure does, looks like its setting up for a nicer hit than 06z with the higher heights on the east coast....we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, LP08 said: GFS looks good through 138 again. The NS vort on the CMC just washes out so the boundary never gets past us so it opens the door for it to run west. Agreed... next few panels should be good for our region even if it is a little south looking at 144 I am hoping the EURO repeats with its monster storm but about a hundred miles further east lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 GFS looks tasty af. That's my (non)professional analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 IWM has a SLP down in SC at 156 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, DCTeacherman said: Yeah it sure does, looks like its setting up for a nicer hit than 06z with the higher heights on the east coast....we shall see. Coming in two parts this go round. Might be another hit after 156 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 156 500 map looks ripe for a Miller A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Wow, that 114 piece is juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: As the look evolves up top to more blocking centered on the Atlantic side vs the Pacific years like 2007 should drop off and I am curious what replaces them. I'd be happy to finally get that analog off the books, lol (it's been annoying me since late fall!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, LP08 said: Coming in two parts this go round. Might be another hit after 156 SLP looks a lil strung out at 162 on IWM... but seems to have a lower pressure near HSE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 That period around the 25th is a powder keg. There is a LOT of energy floating around the trough to our west. What we don't want is a perfect consolidation of energy and a big huge phase to our west...but we also don't want all those vorts floating around the NS and STJ totally seperate and weak waves suppressed. But often the in between is the most likely scenario and there is an in between option here for a monster up the east coast IF once that front clears the east coast some of that NS energy decides to dive in and phase into the STJ wave along the coast. The GGEM never pushes the boundary to the coast and so it wraps everything up to our west. The Euro almost did exactly that last night but the boundary never cleared enough and the system rode up just a small bit too far inland. It was a nice hit for the NW part of our forum. The WAR means an inside track is on the table...but there are enough things right that a coastal track isn't out of the question. It's an "interesting" period imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 I am happy not to be the bullseye this far out! Looked good to me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 It's almost surely wrong but don't let PSU look at the 12z gfs. It would be bad for his health. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, Bob Chill said: It's almost surely wrong but don't let PSU look at the 12z gfs. It would be bad for his health. Or let Ji see it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The 6z GFS kind of accelerated the blocking a bit so I was curious what the analogs for that op run day 11 would show...sure enough some more interesting dates pop out. February 1996 and January 1961 suddenly show up. And a couple days before the one good snowstorm in 1995 still is in there. The 1961 date falls right in the middle of one of our best epic snow runs with multiple MECS events surrounding that date. There are still some less stellar years...mostly they seem to be bad fits though...for instance years that had been just painfully dry, that doesn't seem to fit this years MO. And a few were years where the upper pattern might have fit the anomalies but years where there wasn't much cold around...again that doesn't seem to fit. As the look evolves up top to more blocking centered on the Atlantic side vs the Pacific years like 2007 should drop off and I am curious what replaces them. If you believe the SSWE vodoo then expect a turn in the next 24 to 72 hours along with the evolution at range of a possible SECS , meaning the models see the strat to trop connection and blocking advances even further and more favorably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 1 minute ago, yoda said: SLP looks a lil strung out at 162 on IWM... but seems to have a lower pressure near HSE Looking at TT, it appears the main low is in the Gulf around 144h, then comes up to the FL panhandle area. But appears that it comes in "discrete" pulses, though there is a main center of sorts. Looks like an interesting time, if that cold front actually goes through in time and there is SS energy to rotate up toward us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's almost surely wrong but don't let PSU look at the 12z gfs. It would be bad for his health. It's going to get better. I think it's a pretty decent bet that we get this follow up wave now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 6 minutes ago, yoda said: SLP looks a lil strung out at 162 on IWM... but seems to have a lower pressure near HSE Doctor: Sir, you were choking to death in that restaurant and you were turning blue. But I saved your life by doing a tracheotomy. Yoder: But now I will have a scar on my neck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Or let Ji see it Unless it shows 30"or more for his yard, shouldn't let Ji see any model! And he still might not be happy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, stormtracker said: It's going to get better. I think it's a pretty decent bet that we get this follow up wave now. Besides in this case, trending north actually IS more likely to happen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, stormtracker said: Doctor: Sir, you were choking to death in that restaurant and you were turning blue. But I saved your life by doing a tracheotomy. Yoder: But now I will have a scar on my neck. I prefer when Ji called me Yogi lol Just saying what it looked like. If it had been more consolidated, then we would have had a bigger hit IMO. DT has 15 inches from the combined waves as the jackpot from the combined two part system lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Just now, stormtracker said: It's going to get better. I think it's a pretty decent bet that we get this follow up wave now. I hope so, 6Z EPS strongly disagrees with the GFS on the timing of the boundary crossing our area. At 144 the GFS has the boundary south of our area in southern VA while the 6z EPS has the boundary running from Pittsburgh to upstate NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It's going to get better. I think it's a pretty decent bet that we get this follow up wave now. Yeah, for some reason the "follow up" wave next week seems to be more likely than the one we were hoping for this weekend. Obviously some differences between the two cases, and the thing next week has support from several models at this point (whereas this weekend, it showed up on a couple of runs here or there but nothing consistent). ETA: But one way or another we need that front to go through the region before the wave gets up here of course! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's almost surely wrong but don't let PSU look at the 12z gfs. It would be bad for his health. A foot of snow in SBY at this juncture is a pretty good indicator that a Parrs pummeling is on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 GFS with a pretty stout -NAO block throughout the period after this weekends storm. Looks nice up top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 From the SE Forum Here... but just to show u the difference in a few miles if the GFS is taken verbatim... I'm where the blue dot is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's almost surely wrong but don't let PSU look at the 12z gfs. It would be bad for his health. lol thanks...but check this out. The GFS just misses the boat here...the NS and SS vorts don't phase and instead the NS acts as a kicker...but look what could have been...and the flow on top is not that suppressive this can definitely be a monster that runs the coast if there is just a little bit more coordination here. Somewhere between the GFS and the GGEM is a monster snowstorm for us. Either way this look on the GFS would almost certainly correct more amplified and west. I am more worried about rain than OTS att. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Doctor: Sir, you were choking to death in that restaurant and you were turning blue. But I saved your life by doing a tracheotomy. Yoder: But now I will have a scar on my neck. It's about as good a setup as you can get for a followup. Reminds me of some of the events in JFM 14&15. If anyone remembers the specifics of those... we really didn't have a clear picture on what's going to happen until 72 hours out or so and even then it was fraught with wobbles and such. We were in and out multiple times in the med range. I don't see this being any different and I have no confidence one way or the other right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It's going to get better. I think it's a pretty decent bet that we get this follow up wave now. Seems end of Jan has some real potential ! The looks from the GFS lend some positive vibes . Cue Marley !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.