January/February Medium/Long Range Disco

[Maestrobjwa]

54 minutes ago, yoda said:

00z Euro is a monster storm day 6 into 7... but runs basically along i95 corridor and is just a tad warm 

Day 6 is 1002mb SLP in S GA and day 7 its 973mb SLP just northeast of Boston by 50 miles or so

That's kind of a big move from 12z, isn't it?

[yoda]

9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

That kind of a big move from 12z, isn't it?

Yes, by like 400 miles lol.  12z was running through the Great Lakes 

[Heisy]

EPS looks like it is picking up on this Day 7-8 event now as well...all comes down to timing and positioning of the front...and spacing of course. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 days to go til the Jan 20 date many had circled for the warm winter welcome towards a much better pattern up top. Everything still a go I hope? Missing @showmethesnow 

[snowmagnet]

3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

2 days to go til the Jan 20 date many had circled for the warm winter welcome towards a much better pattern up top. Everything still a go I hope? Missing @showmethesnow 

I was wondering about Showmesnow too. Wondering if he’s staying in Vegas until we another good snow threat! 

[psuhoffman]

52 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

2 days to go til the Jan 20 date many had circled for the warm winter welcome towards a much better pattern up top. Everything still a go I hope? Missing @showmethesnow 

Eps overnight sped up the NAO flip. Interesting pattern week 2. Epo pna ridge, -NAO, deep eastern trough with a WAR. That full latitude ridge/trough/ridge alignment is how you can get a storm that runs the whole east coast and snows NC to Maine. The risk from a war is something could run inside and flip but with the kind of overwhelming cold we’re looking at that’s not high probability. And that can be the type of pattern where DC snows and NYC to Bos rains with a storm that hugs the coast. One of my analogs that also had a sswe keeps coming to mind. Wish the composites were available to check on my hunch but the blizzard of 66 was that kind of storm. 

Day 15 is a pretty good look. Cold relaxing but with epo/pna ridge and -NAO and signs the stj is back and undercutting along the gulf coast. The PV is suppressed in eastern Canada. That’s close to our ideal look just need some lower heights in the 50/50 space and it’s perfect. 

Ok that’s my analysis now back to bed...2 hour delay. Driving my son up to Killington tonight so need the rest. 

@showmethesnow safe travels home my friend. We miss you. 

[psuhoffman]

Oh forgot to mention the 6z gfs just accelerated the NAO flip like the euro also. By a couple days. 

Like Bob said we’re now into the territory where the flip up top is almost guaranteed and soon it will be time to start looking at the specific details in the pattern that will impact storm chances. Guidance will be jumpy during the long wave pattern change so don’t buy into anything too quickly. 

[showmethesnow]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

2 days to go til the Jan 20 date many had circled for the warm winter welcome towards a much better pattern up top. Everything still a go I hope? Missing @showmethesnow 

 

1 hour ago, snowmagnet said:

I was wondering about Showmesnow too. Wondering if he’s staying in Vegas until we another good snow threat! 

 

35 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Eps overnight sped up the NAO flip. Interesting pattern week 2. Epo pna ridge, -NAO, deep eastern trough with a WAR. That full latitude ridge/trough/ridge alignment is how you can get a storm that runs the whole east coast and snows NC to Maine. The risk from a war is something could run inside and flip but with the kind of overwhelming cold we’re looking at that’s not high probability. And that can be the type of pattern where DC snows and NYC to Bos rains with a storm that hugs the coast. One of my analogs that also had a sswe keeps coming to mind. Wish the composites were available to check on my hunch but the blizzard of 66 was that kind of storm. 

Day 15 is a pretty good look. Cold relaxing but with epo/pna ridge and -NAO and signs the stj is back and undercutting along the gulf coast. The PV is suppressed in eastern Canada. That’s close to our ideal look just need some lower heights in the 50/50 space and it’s perfect. 

Ok that’s my analysis now back to bed...2 hour delay. Driving my son up to Killington tonight so need the rest. 

@showmethesnow safe travels home my friend. We miss you. 

Thanks for thinking about me. Once wife gets me out of debtors jail I will be flying back.

Flight gets in tomorrow evening so hopefully any ice can hold off till we get home. Will be nice to be tracking once again. Just never found the time between my bouts of losing money. 

[WxUSAF]

6z FV3 has the trailing wave, but doesn't quite get enough separation to strengthen.  6z GEFS looks like a step back relative to 0z.  More spread.  Some timing spread, but also some inland runners and a few suppressed waves.  

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

LR models have a strong -NAO, more than usual. It seems Stratosphere driven, as there is no progression wave. The dates for "10mb warming becomes -NAO" are Jan 17 - Feb 21, and Feb 5,10,15 the greatest probability. 

El Nino is really kicking into gear with a constant +PNA, especially in the Pacific. No more Hawaii ridge. 

[BlizzardNole]

59 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

...Driving my son up to Killington tonight so need the rest. 

@showmethesnow safe travels home my friend. We miss you. 

WOW you're going to Killington for the long weekend?  Oh man you're in for some serious cold and snow!  LOL Saturday night 10-14 inches with low of 6 degrees.  I went to Killington this same weekend in 1995 and it rained and reached 50. 

Anyone see the Washington Post article from a couple days ago about the Polar Vortex having split into three pieces?  Here is is in case anyone missed it:

Polar Vortex Fractures - Washington Post

[Ji]

6z FV3 has the trailing wave, but doesn't quite get enough separation to strengthen.  6z GEFS looks like a step back relative to 0z.  More spread.  Some timing spread, but also some inland runners and a few suppressed waves.  

Pretty much every solution known to weenies and non weenies

[Ji]

WOW you're going to Killington for the long weekend?  Oh man you're in for some serious cold and snow!  LOL Saturday night 10-14 inches with low of 6 degrees.  I went to Killington this same weekend in 1995 and it rained and reached 50. 
Anyone see the Washington Post article from a couple days ago about the Polar Vortex having split into three pieces? It said the cold could last for several weeks.

Yep one week for every piece

[frd]

16 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Will be nice to be tracking once again. Just never found the time between my bouts of losing money. 

I hope you had time for all the good food showme !!  

Missing your early AM posts by the way......I have been setting my alarm a little later since you have been so busy over there  :-) 

Safe travels  

[Ralph Wiggum]

10 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

LR models are pretty -NAO, more than usual. It seems Stratosphere driven, as there is no progression wave. The dates for 10mb warming becomes -NAO are Jan 17 - Feb 21, and Feb 5,10,15 the greatest probability. 

So 2nd and 3rd week of Feb will rock?

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

So 2nd and 3rd week of Feb will rock?

The start date of Jan 17th isn't so far off.. it's light -NAO now. Matches my Stratosphere warmings post for this date. 

 

[snowmagnet]

49 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

 

 

Thanks for thinking about me. Once wife gets me out of debtors jail I will be flying back.

Flight gets in tomorrow evening so hopefully any ice can hold off till we get home. Will be nice to be tracking once again. Just never found the time between my bouts of losing money. 

It will be great to have you back talking about snow! 

[PCT_ATC]

@showmethesnow interested to know how long the TSA lines are leaving vegas

[frd]

I hate the MJO, but maybe everything lines up very shortly. 

Fits in line with ocean and atmosphere connections and expectations.

From Ventrice on the matter of the MJO 

 

[frd]

GFS Super Ensembles 

 

 

[frd]

 

Based on this overall progression here, ( second animation ) you have to think the chances are very good we get several snowfall oppurtunities, and each one by a different evolution of the pattern from blocking and longwave locations. 

John makes a good point, that we all know, the NAO is the hardest to predict, but moving towards late Jen and Feb there is hope for a -NAO and Feb.

 

 

[psuhoffman]

29 minutes ago, frd said:

GFS Super Ensembles 

 

 

That’s not an overly inspiring list of analogs though.  However the blocking hasn’t fully matured yet at that point. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

This is the problem right here. Look how much the AO has verified above it's 7 and 10 day forecast since late November. 

[Bob Chill]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That’s not an overly inspiring list of analogs though.  However the blocking hasn’t fully matured yet at that point. 

I thought the same thing. They're not terrible analogs but also don't paint good chances at a moderate or large storm. Only through 11 days or so though. We'll see how the analogs look in another 5 days or so. 

[LP08]

ICON keeps the follow up wave, just a little to far south for next week. Seems like all guidance so far has some semblance of a storm after the front clears.  Results to be determined.

 

 

[StantonParkHoya]

Here in town, we've got about 6-7 weeks left to make it count. Better get going soon.

[frd]

18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That’s not an overly inspiring list of analogs though.  However the blocking hasn’t fully matured yet at that point. 

I am with you and Bob, I also thought that when I looked at all the dates, but it is at the beginning of hopefully good pattern that has more potential than long term averages. 

[yoda]

5 minutes ago, LP08 said:

ICON keeps the follow up wave, just a little to far south for next week. Seems like all guidance so far has some semblance of a storm after the front clears.  Results to be determined.

 

 

Looks like we get some precip from it anyway hours 144-156... but there is minimal cold air around

[LP08]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Looks like we get some precip from it anyway hours 144-156... but there is minimal cold air around

Yeah I found that strange when I checked temps that there isn't much cold air around. With that track I'm pretty sure that's the last thing we would need to worry about.

[psuhoffman]

35 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I thought the same thing. They're not terrible analogs but also don't paint good chances at a moderate or large storm. Only through 11 days or so though. We'll see how the analogs look in another 5 days or so. 

 

26 minutes ago, frd said:

I am with you and Bob, I also thought that when I looked at all the dates, but it is at the beginning of hopefully good pattern that has more potential than long term averages. 

The 6z GFS kind of accelerated the blocking a bit so I was curious what the analogs for that op run day 11 would show...sure enough some more interesting dates pop out.  February 1996 and January 1961 suddenly show up.  And a couple days before the one good snowstorm in 1995 still is in there.  The 1961 date falls right in the middle of one of our best epic snow runs with multiple MECS events surrounding that date.  There are still some less stellar years...mostly they seem to be bad fits though...for instance years that had been just painfully dry, that doesn't seem to fit this years MO.  And a few were years where the upper pattern might have fit the anomalies but years where there wasn't much cold around...again that doesn't seem to fit.  As the look evolves up top to more blocking centered on the Atlantic side vs the Pacific years like 2007 should drop off and I am curious what replaces them.