LP08 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 12z eps building the -EPO to -NAO bridge around the 25th now. Should be busy in here starting sometime next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, LP08 said: 12z eps building the -EPO to -NAO bridge around the 25th now. Should be busy in here starting sometime next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 For an "ideal" long wave pattern, we want that ridging over top in Greenland and the Pole with a piece of the tropospheric PV stuck south of that and, importantly, ideally oriented in a more W-E fashion rather than N-S. A piece of that TPV stretching toward the 50/50 zone and the rest of it back north of or northwest of the Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Better PNA ridge on the long range EPS this run... also more WAR but that might not be a bad combo with a EPO/PNA full lat ridge out west and a -NAO...a war might actually help avoid suppression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: Cold shouldn't be an issue moving forward with that look, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, LP08 said: Cold shouldn't be an issue moving forward with that look, lol. no...but not sure I like seeing that blue ball centered right over us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I liked the look of 00z in the LR a little better. Looked more like the description USAF just posted....Any other year we would be excited and it's not a bad look....just more of a cold/dry look imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, LP08 said: Cold shouldn't be an issue moving forward with that look, lol. Nope. Here's the d10-15 5 day mean 850 departures. It gon git cold. Overall it's a good run and doesn't indicate a shutdown in precip d10-15 either. Everything remains on track for another day without surprises and degradation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: no...but not sure I like seeing that blue ball centered right over us... Agreed. Too much of a good thing I suppose. The temp anomalies show the center of the cold still over the Midwest. I bet our opportunities would come from some sort of relaxation of that as we move forward in time. The last couple of frames do try and stretch it E-W as the war continues to move into the NAO region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: no...but not sure I like seeing that blue ball centered right over us... We've had a bunch of those looks for the last 5 days of the month. One thing that's been consistent though is the inconsistency of d10-15 mean panels. We're just going to have to sit on our hands and hope for the best here. Doesn't look like ptype will be an issue as long as we have precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We've had a bunch of those looks for the last 5 days of the month. One thing that's been consistent though is the inconsistency of d10-15 mean panels. We're just going to have to sit on our hands and hope for the best here. Doesn't look like ptype will be an issue as long as we have precip I think there's a period of some duration (days to ~1-2 weeks) where we're northern stream dominated it looks like if that pattern manifests. But the Ops runs with those type of looks have still been active, so think some snow is still quite possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: that looks like a clipper/Miller B low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I think there's a period of some duration (days to ~1-2 weeks) where we're northern stream dominated it looks like if that pattern manifests. But the Ops runs with those type of looks have still been active, so think some snow is still quite possible. We have time, but we really can't get into a situation where the pattern doesn't settle in until the end of Jan/beginning of Feb and then we have close to two weeks of northern stream action if we want to have a big February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 as JB loves saying...after this next cutter...it will be Snow or No for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 19 minutes ago, poolz1 said: I liked the look of 00z in the LR a little better. Looked more like the description USAF just posted....Any other year we would be excited and it's not a bad look....just more of a cold/dry look imo. Agree. 12z GEFS has that look. Much more like what we want to see. 12z EPS has a 50-50 High lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Agree. 12z GEFS has that look. Much more like what we want to see. Euro has a 50-50 High lol. Oddly, that ridge may actually help. Looking through the members that have good hits, all the qpf shields are aligned much more S-N than what we usually see. Fits the general LW pattern on the ens so it makes sense. I'm not going to overthink or worry about much. I fully expect the current d10-15 to look somewhat or much different when it hits d5-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Oddly the eps isn’t dry at all. Snow mean jumps about 4” from day 9-15. That’s not insignificant for the eps which is much stingier than the GEFS. It’s shotgun around several threats with no one taking dominance. Or we could get another cutter in the middle of our arctic outbreak like the control lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Oddly, that ridge may actually help. Looking through the members that have good hits, all the qpf shields are aligned much more S-N than what we usually see. Fits the general LW pattern on the ens so it makes sense. I'm not going to overthink or worry about much. I fully expect the current d10-15 to look somewhat or much different when it hits d5-10 Yeah if nothing else we know this to be the case most of the time with the advertised NA look. I am not concerned about the subtleties with the NAO, just that it is at least somewhat negative most of the time. As long as the look up top and out west stays put going forward, we should be ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Oddly, that ridge may actually help. Looking through the members that have good hits, all the qpf shields are aligned much more S-N than what we usually see. Fits the general LW pattern on the ens so it makes sense. I'm not going to overthink or worry about much. I fully expect the current d10-15 to look somewhat or much different when it hits d5-10 Yep. If the pna goes up like that with a full lat ridge/trough alignment across the US the war would act to get the whole thing negative tilt enough to get a full latitude east coast runner. Those are so rare anymore most probably don’t even consider the look anymore. But that look is the one that can lead to the NC to Maine kind of storms of lore. It would be progressive fast mover that screams up the coast so we’re not taking about a stalled mid Atlantic monster but maybe the way we seem able to get prolific precip in short periods I shouldn’t assume anything anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Not sure why I feel this way but if it's going to be that cold I think we will get snow maybe not the big dogs like some only want but I just think that type of cold is going to ring out every ounce of moisture in the atmosphere with very little trigger. I think it would be pretty cool for it just to be snowing often regardless of the accumulation. 02-03 had that feel often...just seemed like every few days there was a light snow. My opinion....no real skill attached...just a hairy back standing on end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 @psuhoffman why do you think this is ? the spread > Is the model used for this, is that why? Not accurate. Because the globals have a - AO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, frd said: @psuhoffman why do you think this is ? the spread > I would imagine the same reason the ensembles show different snow solutions but we go with the majority. That looks like majority -AO to me..my 2 cents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, BristowWx said: I would imagine the same reason the ensembles show different snow solutions but we go with the majority. That looks like majority -AO to me..my 2 cents There was much greater concensus yesterday and earlier in the week . But thanks ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 16 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Not sure why I feel this way but if it's going to be that cold I think we will get snow maybe not the big dogs like some only want but I just think that type of cold is going to ring out every ounce of moisture in the atmosphere with very little trigger. I think it would be pretty cool for it just to be snowing often regardless of the accumulation. 02-03 had that feel often...just seemed like every few days there was a light snow. My opinion....no real skill attached...just a hairy back standing on end 02-03 wasnt really like that 13-14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ji said: 02-03 wasnt really like that 13-14 Probably...so long ago. I just remember there were always flurries or an occasional light snow...not much accumulation. 13-14 had so many accumulators but you're probably more right than I am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tplbge Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 hour ago, Ji said: as JB loves saying...after this next cutter...it will be Snow or Doctor No for a while Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Here's the eps meteo for Gburg. Similar all over the burbs though. Nice shotgun spray after the 25th. Not an insignificant # of solutions that figure out how to snow here but timing and intensity is all over the place. Looks good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 If I squint at that EPS snow chart, it looks like the clearest "signal" is around the 26th, which is after the time frame for that trailing wave the FV3 has been showing, but could be the same sort of deal I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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