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January/February Medium/Long Range Disco


nj2va

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Just now, Ji said:
12 minutes ago, Cobalt said:
At the very most the day 8-9 storm looks more interesting. 

Dont waste your time on it

Only wasting time when you lose sleep over it. We've got nothing other than the Thurs/Friday system until the pattern change so no reason to just be intrigued by model solutions rather than getting full on invested in the storm and having your hopes let down. 

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20 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

the snow just wants to visit @Jebman =)

We take.

 

"This is Jeb, reporting to you LIVE from south central Texas where we are expecting 10 - 15 inches of snow overnight, Local forecasters say this is a one in 50,000 years snowstorm for us lol."

 

In 2004, Victoria, TX much closer to the Gulf, recorded 13 inches of snow. So, it CAN happen lol

 

 

Snow is very fun but I want The Mid Atlantic to get the 15 inches. I dont need it here lol, you guys DO NEED IT!

You get a general 15 inches of snow with the infamous Leesburg/HoCo/MoCo Deathband dumping 22 inches in that arc.

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5 minutes ago, Ji said:
22 minutes ago, BristowWx said:
Imagine Jeb doing snow obs from south Texas.  Him running around in a t-shirt Jebwalking.  

Nothing more overrated than a triple phaser for us. #cutterlol

Falls in that mythical category of wrap around snow, storm making its own cold air, and you saying “it’s ok we need the rain”....

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58 minutes ago, Ji said:

All the showmethesnow windows have ended in disaster. He needs a little bob chill negativity

Who said anything about snow for the 20-22 window? All I said was that there was a signal for a strong storm. :)  

ETA. I will work on my negativity but I will never hope to attain chill status. 

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3 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

What is the last triple phase storm that stayed on the beaches? Obviously we all know 1993 went up the apps

93 actually went up the coastal plain with low pressure center tracking from Tallahassee up to Dover and over LI. The heaviest snowfall was concentrated from AL and up the spine of the Apps and mixing occurred east of the mountains due to the warm air advection that transpired at 925-800mb as the storm climbed the eastern seaboard. Deformation axis had the single largest coverage of any storm in the satellite era with snow occurring in the western FL panhandle up to western PA while the low was still down around 30N latitude. The storm to end all storms in terms of high scale impact. 

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Looking at today’s runs for the ops and ensembles I know pessimism is certainly understandable but here’s my take moving through end of January through early February:

The WAR seems to be progressing on models to the NAO domain and flipping it negative towards the end of these runs. Been pretty consistent on GFS and seems like it’s heading that way on the euro.

Having the AO flip very negative gives us an opportunity when it starts to relax. Some of our bigger events tend to come on the tail ends of big telleconnection changes (NAO flip, or AO, etc)

If we can maintain some semblance of a split flow and a decently active SS, I really think we can see the first or 2nd week in February pop.

I know there’s a lot of unknowns in my hypothetical but I really like that the AO flips strong and the NAO seemlying is going to do the same. Get through the cold suppressive period for a short time and hopefully there’s a nice surprise at the end of the tunnel. 

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7 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

93 actually went up the coastal plain with low pressure center tracking from Tallahassee up to Dover and over LI. The heaviest snowfall was concentrated from AL and up the spine of the Apps and mixing occurred east of the mountains due to the warm air advection that transpired at 925-800mb as the storm climbed the eastern seaboard. Deformation axis had the single largest coverage of any storm in the satellite era with snow occurring in the western FL panhandle up to western PA while the low was still down around 30N latitude. The storm to end all storms in terms of high scale impact. 

id kill for a storm like that now with all the modeling that we have available...i cant believe we havent gotten close to getting a storm like this since 1993 with all the "global warming"

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

id kill for a storm like that now with all the modeling that we have available...i cant believe we havent gotten close to getting a storm like this since 1993 with all the "global warming"

That storm was just the perfect interaction of 3 different energy pieces. Probably a once in 100 year occurrence, but you never know. We basically had one like it last January, but it phased too late and it only tickled the eastern seaboard. 150 miles further east, and we'd be talking about that one for the rest of our lives. We'll get another monster in the next decade. Hell, we could see one this winter before all said and done. 

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3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

That storm was just the perfect interaction of 3 different energy pieces. Probably a once in 100 year occurrence, but you never know. We basically had one like it last January, but it phased too late and it only tickled the eastern seaboard. 150 miles further east, and we'd be talking about that one for the rest of our lives. We'll get another monster in the next decade. Hell, we could see one this winter before all said and done. 

Was that the storm in which CAPE went to Rehoboth, or was it another system after that?

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