Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I had 30 thank you very much! I suppose my recollection of the exact amounts "fringed" you with only 25!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ji said: based on the active storm track weve had..it sure feels like an El Nino--And most El Ninos shutdown for a bit..but there has been no rest from Precip since Fall I am going to hold you to that Ji . I know you want snow as badly as I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Ji said: dang...how did i not lose my mind that you got 20 inches more than me......i must of been in some kind of funk. Id love to see some pictures maybe in another thread lol I will see if I can find any...but unfortunately I think they are gone. I had them posted on eastern but obviously that is no more...and both the computer and external drive I had them saved on died a long time ago...so I am not sure I have them anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: dang...how did i not lose my mind that you got 20 inches more than me......i must of been in some kind of funk. Id love to see some pictures maybe in another thread lol Probably because you got 34" a few days earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, frd said: I am going to hold you to that Ji . I know you want snow as badly as I do. hold me to what lol...im just saying we have been tracking some kind of storm every week since Fall...so whether or not its El Nino..its felt like it...ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Here's the footage I got in that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yes to the 30 from Feb 10...but it was only about 25" here from the Feb 5 storm. The miller b on the 10th was just perfect here... Manchester was under that crazy heavy band of WAA snow that set up along the mason dixon line the night before...before the coastal even started to form...and I had a few hours of the heaviest snow I have ever seen. I had 12" from that in like 3 hours. Then when the coastal bombed it was a perfect wind trajectory for the upslope enhancement here...heavy snow just kept going all day the next day. It was at least 30" but it was very hard to measure...wind was crazy, blowing things into just amazing drifts. I had pictures of snow up to roofs around town. Some of the people around me put down more than 30 but I have no way to know for sure...it was a sh!t ton of snow...that much I know. That 2nd storm Feb. 9-10 was damn near impossible to measure accurately, especially with all the other snow from a few days prior and with it blowing around all over. I marked down 12.0" where I'm at, but that might have been a bit of an underestimate. At least I saw a few other nearby reports on the order of ~14", so my measurement (such as it was) was in the ballpark anyhow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I got 28 inches from the first storm and 18 from the second near Baltimore. Was the most thrilling experience of my life so far. Remember my side street had 2-3 feet of snow for like a week afterwards. Couldn't drive even if you wanted to, unless you had a giant plow attached. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: That 2nd storm Feb. 9-10 was damn near impossible to measure accurately, especially with all the other snow from a few days prior and with it blowing around all over. I marked down 12.0" where I'm at, but that might have been a bit of an underestimate. At least I saw a few other nearby reports on the order of ~14", so my measurement (such as it was) was in the ballpark anyhow. Yup. I just used my sidewalk to measure. I was completely shoveled out from the first one, so I think that was fairly accurate when measured in several different spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I think we are all going to have to deal with a Miller B heartbreak this year....i still think its better than a Southern Slider hearbreak that we got back in December..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: I think we are all going to have to deal with a Miller B heartbreak this year....i still think its better than a Southern Slider hearbreak that we got back in December..... Don't even speak that into existence!!!!! Did we not just deal with that two winters in a row? Time to change the tide, hoepfully...Remember, government shutdowns can bring good (or even big) snows! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 16 minutes ago, Ji said: I think we are all going to have to deal with a Miller B heartbreak this year....i still think its better than a Southern Slider hearbreak that we got back in December..... Looks like it for now. The potential saving grace is with blocked flow it's less likely (how much less is a debate in itself) to get totally shutout into a deep pit of despair. Hard to worry about anything like that 10 days in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Looks like the GFS is in the follow up idea camp at 12z today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 14 minutes ago, Ji said: I think we are all going to have to deal with a Miller B heartbreak this year....i still think its better than a Southern Slider hearbreak that we got back in December..... Well benchmark did say he thought more Miller Bs , of course thats fine for them. I know a weaker El Nino lowers the ceiling on snow events for us. However, wondering the implications of severe or moderate blocking later in the month and in Feb. Also, maybe a stronger push of moisture in the STJ can over ride at times issues to our North. I was hoping for a steep decline in the SOI for that very reason seems the SOI goes negative and then the moisture arrives. Not sure what will happen if the SOI is only slightly negative at that. Psu talked about why is it like it is ( the SOI ) this morning. I am simply focusing on the desire to have a long sustained -SOI or at least a short term steep drop to -20. So many elements to watch and they all play off each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 and here it is.....the last chance of January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, LP08 said: Looks like the GFS is in the follow up idea camp at 12z today. Yup, nice hit. I like the setup if we can get some consistency. Basically we want the northern s/w to outrun the southern s/w and then that southern s/w makes a turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Right off OBX at 168. So we have the FV3, CMC, and GFS now showing the follow up idea. What could go wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, frd said: Well benchmark did say he thought more Miller Bs , of course thats fine for them. I know a weaker El Nino lowers the ceiling on snow events for us. However, wondering the implications of severe or moderate blocking later in the month and in Feb. Also, maybe a stronger push of moisture in the STJ can over ride at times issues to our North. I was hoping for a steep decline in the SOI for that very reason seems the SOI goes negative and then the moisture arrives. Not sure what will happen if the SOI is only slightly negative at that. Psu talked about why is it like it is ( the SOI ) this morning. I am simply focusing on the desire to have a long sustained -SOI or at least a short term steep drop to -20. So many elements to watch and they all play off each other. The best El Nino/STJ I remember was PD2003...the SOI tanked right before the storm.....like really tanked. That was one of the most impressive mositure plumes ive ever seen. Didnt hurt having a 1050 high too Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Ji said: and here it is.....the last chance of January That is a text book SECS. Would love to see a clean solution like that just once this season. Its the only game in CONUS that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, LP08 said: Right off OBX at 168. So we have the FV3, CMC, and GFS now showing the follow up idea. What could go wrong CMC changed its mind to a cutter for the 24th on the 12z run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, LP08 said: Right off OBX at 168. So we have the FV3, CMC, and GFS now showing the follow up idea. What could go wrong We don't want what the 12z cmc is dishing out but it will violently change every 12 hours so maybe later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: That is a text book SECS. Would love to see a clean solution like that just once this season. Its the only game in CONUS that day. It’s a classic look, but we don’t get there classically. The GFS is almost like an extremely delayed Anafront lol....Wave develops on the frontal boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We don't want what the 12z cmc is dishing out but it will violently change every 12 hours so maybe later. we really need this storm. It will be more fun going dry and clippery with 8 inches of snow on the ground that wont melt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We don't want what the 12z cmc is dishing out but it will violently change every 12 hours so maybe later. Lol I hadn’t even seen the cmc yet. Should have prefaced 0z at 6z respectively Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We don't want what the 12z cmc is dishing out but it will violently change every 12 hours so maybe later. one of those Lows will get us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, Ji said: we really need this storm. It will be more fun going dry and clippery with 8 inches of snow on the ground that wont melt Can't disagree with that. My guess is the look beyond what appears to be another west track will swing wildly for a few days (probably longer). It's quite possible that a threat materializes out of nowhere as we move through time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 10 minutes ago, Ji said: What is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 If we are going to debate miller-b's the way they CAN work for us in the rare case where the NS system is healthy and coming across BELOW our latitude and the trough axis is centered west of our latitude...in other words the system is digging unusually far south in the midwest and the coastal is likely to develop close to the coast not way OTS then swing back in to clip Boston. It's rare to get that...and it takes extreme blocking usually, but it has happened. If you want to see an example look at the end of the ICON, that NS system coming across is likely to transfer to a coastal but where that is diving in at we would have a shot there. A system coming across the lakes is going to transfer to a low too far north for us. A general rule is the coastal will develop at the same latitude the NS vort is at when the transfer happens (the surface low will usually start to develop to the southeast along the inverted trough connecting the NS and coastal front but the coastal typically wont bomb out and really develop a healthy CCB until its at the same latitude as the NS vort and the whole system phases in)...AND once a coastal is north of our latitude we are pretty much done for...barring the kind of miracle stall/back in scenario that happens once in a lifetime. So...for us to win in a miller b we want to see the NS vort diving down pretty far south in the midwest and then we want the trough axis to be going neutral or negative at our longitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 At this point simply interesting seeing this. There may indeed be even more SSWE influence to enter the models in a week or two. Nonetheless, I expect the weeklies to show some off the charts blocking later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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