MillvilleWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Ji said: 4 minutes ago, Fozz said: Didn't Feb 9-10, 2010 start out as a Manitoba Mauler? That was an extreme block and still barely got into the action We barely got into a Blizzard? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Are the below zero temps still a possibility the last week in January? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 6 minutes ago, Fozz said: Didn't Feb 9-10, 2010 start out as a Manitoba Mauler? That was an extreme block and still barely got into the action It was my favorite storm of all time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 14 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: We barely got into a Blizzard? lol Ha! Yeah, I woke up to barely white-out conditions with 40MPH wind gusts through much of that day, and barely recorded a foot of wind-driven snow! To be fair, there was a sharp cut-off close to northern VA I think, but even those areas got some solid amounts. And even DCA got over 10"! Granted, central and northern MD scored best with like 15-25". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 16 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: Are the below zero temps still a possibility the last week in January? During the extremely cold month of Feb. 2015, DCA cracked into the single digits for lows in the middle to later part of the month. BWI got close to zero, and IAD actually did record a below zero reading in the second half of that month.. So yeah, I don't think it's impossible to get sub-zero in late January (not that it will happen, but you get the idea). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 45 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Similar to what the CMC has been showing. I was just looking at that. The CMC has had that storm for three runs in a row, and now the FV3 has had it for its last two. It's still out in fantasy land though, and it doesn't have a lot of support in either the GEFS or GEPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Like a little more concensus here. Seems some members deviate , I like to see a mostyl solid line going down, very jumpy last day or so. Sure what is - 4 SD to to + 3 SD among friends. I guess this indicates model volatility. You have to check the cpc site having issues posting it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 40 minutes ago, Fozz said: It was my favorite storm of all time. I got 3". One of the biggest gut punches of my life. Impossible for me to cash in on Miller bs (apostrophe purposely omitted). Hate any pattern that offers such an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 24 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: During the extremely cold month of Feb. 2015, DCA cracked into the single digits for lows in the middle to later part of the month. BWI got close to zero, and IAD actually did record a below zero reading in the second half of that month.. So yeah, I don't think it's impossible to get sub-zero in late January (not that it will happen, but you get the idea). I know it's possible, but I was wondering if it is still showing up on the forecast maps for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, snowmagnet said: I know it's possible, but I was wondering if it is still showing up on the forecast maps for next week. I see...sorry if I misunderstood what you were looking for there (thought you meant "last week of January" in general!). As for whether sub-zero temps are still showing up for next week, I don't know at this point. Maybe some areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 8 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: I got 3". One of the biggest gut punches of my life. Impossible for me to cash in on Miller bs (apostrophe purposely omitted). Hate any pattern that offers such an event. This past weekend storm was a gut punch here. 4" IMBY, with 9" totals 15-20 minutes away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 hour ago, Fozz said: Didn't Feb 9-10, 2010 start out as a Manitoba Mauler? Saskatchewan Screamer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, Fozz said: This past weekend storm was a gut punch here. 4" IMBY, with 9" totals 15-20 minutes away. That is a bummer ! Yeah, I was upset too , about 4 inches here, but not really that far SW of me places with 8 inches and Bob's area with 11 inches and DC with a big win. Missed the second area of snow on Sunday. Was very close. But, the snow is still here from that event ! So, it looks nice still. Seems luck has left me for a while , the Blizzard last year to my East, This year snow to my South, and this weekend to my North. Crazy !! Still trying to get the snow to be on the ground when the extreme cold hits. That has not worked great either. I really need my spirits lifted, I think my expectations were too high for late Jan. Very optimistic still, eh, maybe impatient , thats it ! Of course my sensible wife would say is it Feb 28 th already ? Or, remember last March. (cough cough ) Well, back to reality and tracking and attempting to put 2 plus 2 together again for Feb and March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 18 minutes ago, Fozz said: This past weekend storm was a gut punch here. 4" IMBY, with 9" totals 15-20 minutes away. Yeah from Balt. City to areas north and west was definitely a screw zone. So needless to say, some of us still need over a foot to just hit climo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Long awaited transition to a blocked/cold longwave pattern is looking more like a lock every ens run. Should come as a big relief to everyone who's been concerned it never develops. Very attractive h5 pattern cracking into the sub d10 range. Next week's hints at a followup wave potential is the best chance we have at another decent (all snow) event. However, you only have to go back to the storm hitting this weekend where models showed the same thing in the mid/long range. It's a razor thin margin to have one of those followups work. Best to just let the entire system get closer in time before picking apart the potential. And also know that these types of events are low probability and extremely difficult to model a week out in time. Beyond that looks great in the sense that any precip will likely be snow but as others have said dry could be a problem. Gefs/eps show enough promise after the stable cold gets here to be optimistic but we're a long ways from knowing how any discrete shortwave will track and produce something. Still good odds we don't get shut out through the end of Jan. I'm not making any guesses as to how or what drops snow on our region. All in all, after next week's probable west track it looks like we'll have the best winter pattern of the season to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I love this Apps signal as a prelude to next storm. It's held there by +AAM Ensembles are warm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 hours ago, frd said: That would work, SOI positive today, you think a few days and then the big drop? Daily contribution to SOI calculation1.56 Ehh...looking at the mslp anomalies going through the next 16 days...the soi looks neutral to positive right through. But that is not because of high pressure near Tahiti...there is some convection and forcing there where we want it...but there is even more lower pressure near Australia where we don't. How that shakes out is above my pay grade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 hours ago, Ji said: As bob says....congratulations to Panama city. I aslo dont think mjo is a big factor...it looks to die in phase 7 in cod by early feb Nope both the SOI and MJO look to be pretty ambiguous heading out in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 hours ago, MillvilleWx said: We barely got into a Blizzard? lol Well in fairness to Ji...had that storm been 20 miles further north and he had ended up with 4" instead of 12 or whatever he got...he would have been completely devastated that places 20 miles north of him got 12-20". So yea for his purposes it was a very close call...and he is right in that MOST miller b systems stay to our north with the significant impacts...we can get some snow but usually the 10" plus totals are Philly north. He doesn't care about 3", if he doesnt get the bullseye its crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 hour ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Ha! Yeah, I woke up to barely white-out conditions with 40MPH wind gusts through much of that day, and barely recorded a foot of wind-driven snow! To be fair, there was a sharp cut-off close to northern VA I think, but even those areas got some solid amounts. And even DCA got over 10"! Granted, central and northern MD scored best with like 15-25". I had 30 thank you very much! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 hours ago, MillvilleWx said: We barely got into a Blizzard? lol In Loudoun we did not get the best - just 9 to 11 inches and high winds. Since I was digging out from 33 inches of snow from a few days earlier, it was alright, but we fringed on the jackpots to the northeast of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 hour ago, Yeoman said: Saskatchewan Screamer British Columbia Bomber Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I had 30 thank you very much! you had 30 for the FEb 10 blizzard? Plus 30 from the Feb 5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Nope both the SOI and MJO look to be pretty ambiguous heading out in time. As you mention the MJO circles to the COD after going through 5 and 6 . I admit I am stumped, have no idea what will happen, last nights Euro was frigid but as Isotherm stated and the SOI indicates the El Nino impact is nill. If wrong , appoligizes in advance. Watch the moisture train shut down possibly. Some comments on other boards about 2013. Yuch ! The AO forecast on the CPC is whacky yet the look form the overnight Euro looks blocky as is the GFS. I bet the weeklies look amazong again, BUT we need storms and cold to lock in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 GFS back to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: you had 30 for the FEb 10 blizzard? Plus 30 from the Feb 5? I remember people in Maryland sharing that they had 50 to 60 inches on the ground. It was insanity that we had upwards of 40. Once in a lifetime I thought - until 38 inches on 2016 Blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Ji said: you had 30 for the FEb 10 blizzard? Plus 30 from the Feb 5? Yes to the 30 from Feb 10...but it was only about 25" here from the Feb 5 storm. The miller b on the 10th was just perfect here... Manchester was under that crazy heavy band of WAA snow that set up along the mason dixon line the night before...before the coastal even started to form...and I had a few hours of the heaviest snow I have ever seen. I had 12" from that in like 3 hours. Then when the coastal bombed it was a perfect wind trajectory for the upslope enhancement here...heavy snow just kept going all day the next day. It was at least 30" but it was very hard to measure...wind was crazy, blowing things into just amazing drifts. I had pictures of snow up to roofs around town. Some of the people around me put down more than 30 but I have no way to know for sure...it was a sh!t ton of snow...that much I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, frd said: As you mention the MJO circles to the COD after going through 5 and 6 . I admit I am stumped, have no idea what will happen, last nights Euro was frigid but as Isotherm stated and the SOI indicates the El Nino impact is nill. If wrong , appoligizes in advance. Watch the moisture train shut down possibly. Some comments on other boards about 2013. Yuch ! The AO forecast on the CPC is whacky yet the look form the overnight Euro looks blocky as is the GFS. I bet the weeklies look amazong again, BUT we need storms and cold to lock in. based on the active storm activity weve had..it sure feels like an El Nino--And most El Ninos shutdown for a bit..but there has been no rest from Precip since Fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Yes to the 30 from Feb 10...but it was only about 25" here from the Feb 5 storm. The miller b on the 10th was just perfect here... Manchester was under that crazy heavy band of WAA snow that set up along the mason dixon line the night before...before the coastal even started to form...and I had a few hours of the heaviest snow I have ever seen. I had 12" from that in like 3 hours. Then when the coastal bombed it was a perfect wind trajectory for the upslope enhancement here...heavy snow just kept going all day the next day. It was at least 30" but it was very hard to measure...wind was crazy, blowing things into just amazing drifts. I had pictures of snow up to roofs around town. Some of the people around me put down more than 30 but I have no way to know for sure...it was a sh!t ton of snow...that much I know. dang...how did i not lose my mind that you got 20 inches more than me......i must of been in some kind of funk. Id love to see some pictures maybe in another thread lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: hen when the coastal bombed it was a perfect wind trajectory for the upslope enhancement here...heavy snow just kept going all day the next day. It was at least 30" but it was very hard to measure...wind was crazy, blowing things into just amazing drifts. I had pictures of snow up to roofs around town. Some of the people around me put down more than 30 but I have no way to know for sure...it was a sh!t ton of snow...that much I know. Across the Northern De Bay here we lost the best forcing , I measured 15 inches but NWS here had forecasts as high as 24 inches. All day looked at the radar and said what ! Same feeling looking at the radar from Boxing Day. This time looking North versus West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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