aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: Trolls gonna troll man no troll, all good....carry on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 30 minutes ago, frd said: yeah I See Wait so Ralph was been running the GEM all this time????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 no troll, all good....carry onLol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Nice snowstorm on the GFS Jan 26th im sure that will hold..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 7 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: Nice snowstorm on the GFS Jan 26th im sure that will hold..... Snowy all the way down to Pensacola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 27 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: Nice snowstorm on the GFS Jan 26th im sure that will hold..... Not really, mostly southeast of us. DC gets fringed. I get nothing. I mean it’s in fantasy range but that’s a pretty pathetic fantasy. Looks nice for like Richmond and the southeast though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 That is the best GFS run I have seen in days. It literally gives SNE (particularly Boston) nothing but heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: Not really, mostly southeast of us. DC gets fringed. I get nothing. I mean it’s in fantasy range but that’s a pretty pathetoc fantasy for our area. Looks nice for like Richmond and the southeast though. Hey, it precipitates every weekend it seems...so we always have a chance at SOMETHING, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Not really, mostly southeast of us. DC gets fringed. I get nothing. I mean it’s in fantasy range but that’s a pretty pathetoc fantasy for our area. Looks nice for like Richmond and the southeast though. Alternating episodes of Boston SECS and Richmond SECS we will get ours, Capital Weather Gang said so. Navy has a big storm as well later next week . Hey, where is the Midwest Blizzard HM was talking about ? Is it on guideance? I admit I have not checked about that, he stated that was a player in the NAO flip or at least part of the improving pattern of late month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Not really, mostly southeast of us. DC gets fringed. I get nothing. I mean it’s in fantasy range but that’s a pretty pathetic fantasy. Looks nice for like Richmond and the southeast though. #northtrend eta...what's the EPS look like storm-wise past D10? Looks like the D8 event has a huge spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 11 minutes ago, eurojosh said: That is the best GFS run I have seen in days. It literally gives SNE (particularly Boston) nothing but heavy rain. Who gives a crap what Boston gets??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: Who gives a crap what Boston gets??? The amount I care about how much rain Boston gets is an inverse function of the amount of snow we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: #northtrend eta...what's the EPS look like storm-wise past D10? Looks like the D8 event has a huge spread. Pretty dry. Mean precip doesn’t go up much after day 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 15 minutes ago, frd said: Alternating episodes of Boston SECS and Richmond SECS we will get ours, Capital Weather Gang said so. Navy has a big storm as well later next week . Hey, where is the Midwest Blizzard HM was talking about ? Is it on guideance? I admit I have not checked about that, he stated that was a player in the NAO flip or at least part of the improving pattern of late month. Guidance has trended away from that but it could go back. If the PV drops a lobe in and phases the whole thing will bomb to our west. But right now guidance is ejecting everything in weak waves. Wave one will go to our north but it could drive the boundary through then something behind it could swing out around the front side of the trough. If anything consolidates it will likely cut but multiple waves rotating around the PV works for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 the Op gfs is being stubborn with the blocking. Ever since this run 18z yesterday it’s gone to this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: the Op gfs is being stubborn with the blocking. Ever since this run 18z yesterday I would say that is rather remarkable for 24 hours and all across the entire top, not just the Atlantic side. but also the Pac. No connection either across the EPO regions to near Greenland. OK, so it is the GFS but what the heck would have caused such a drastic change like that. MJO related ? Yet the EPS was good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 “We’re people, too!” - Richmond folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 @psuhoffman 18z gefs looks great and BN heights in the 50/50 area as well. No pushback of blocking and an unusually strong -epo signal with a closed ridge way out in time. That's not very common at 16 day leads. All we can do is hope all these blocked looks actually happen in some fashion. I noticed the EPS d10+ was pretty dry also. Goes along with what i was thinking yesterday that during the transition when the tpv drops down that moisture laden storms would be hard to come by. Which would be only a temporary problem anyways. Not including tomorrow night, it looks like 2-3 precip chances over the next 10 days. Would be great if one or more is at least partially frozen but even if it doesn't work things still look as promising as you can ask at this lead for Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, frd said: I would say that is rather remarkable for 24 hours and all across the entire top, not just the Atlantic side. but also the Pac. No connection either across the EPO regions to near Greenland. OK, so it is the GFS but what the heck would have caused such a drastic change like that. MJO related ? Yet the EPS was good. It’s odd. The GEFS disagrees and so does the eps. But the op gfs and fv3 have been consistent in having the complete opposite look for 4 runs in a row now. They didn’t trend that way if just flipped on a dime. 18z yesterday had that great blocking look and then the next run was a raging positive AO/NAO and it’s been that way ever since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s odd. The GEFS disagrees and so does the eps. But the op gfs and fv3 have been consistent in having the complete opposite look for 4 runs in a row now. They didn’t trend that way if just flipped on a dime. 18z yesterday had that great blocking look and then the next run was a raging positive AO/NAO and it’s been that way ever since. Fantasyland Fv3 strongly agrees with the insane closed ridge idea on the gefs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 we need to score desperately on the Jan 26 moisture event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s odd. The GEFS disagrees and so does the eps. But the op gfs and fv3 have been consistent in having the complete opposite look for 4 runs in a row now. They didn’t trend that way if just flipped on a dime. 18z yesterday had that great blocking look and then the next run was a raging positive AO/NAO and it’s been that way ever since. You are correct, it really is odd. I would think the GFS and the upgrade share some of the same modeling physics but the question remains, what caused the FLIP. For know it is a mystery. The GEFS and the EPS do well it seems with the HL , so if they are not showing anything negative I guess no need to worry. I was just very curious, thats all . Thanks psu ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: @psuhoffman 18z gefs looks great and BN heights in the 50/50 area as well. No pushback of blocking and an unusually strong -epo signal with a closed ridge way out in time. That's not very common at 16 day leads. All we can do is hope all these blocked looks actually happen in some fashion. I noticed the EPD d10+ was pretty dry also. Goes along with what i was thinking yesterday that during the transition when the tpv drops down that moisture laden storms would be hard to come by. Which would be only a temporary problem anyways. Not including tomorrow night, it looks like 2-3 precip chances over the next 10 days. Would be great if one or more is at least partially frozen but even if it doesn't work things still look as promising as you can ask at this lead for Feb. I’m pretty sure the gfs op drank some of jobu’s rum and will come around to the right idea eventually but it’s odd it’s been so consistently off the same way. It’s seeing something different for some reason. That look there is excellent. So was the eps today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I’m pretty sure the gfs op drank some of jobu’s rum and will come around to the right idea eventually but it’s odd it’s been so consistently off the same way. It’s seeing something different for some reason. That look there is excellent. So was the eps today. It is VERY bad to drink Jobu’s rum. VERY bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: the Op gfs is being stubborn with the blocking. Ever since this run 18z yesterday it’s gone to this... This is a major learning moment for me. If you feel like it, could you explain how to analyze the sensible weather impacts from the GFS version, especially with regards to temperature anomalies.? My current understanding is on a very simplistic level. I see a big trough in the east and ridge in the west and think "good, must be cold". Obviously I have a lot to learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, cbmclean said: This is a major learning moment for me. If you feel like it, could you explain how to analyze the sensible weather impacts from the GFS version, especially with regards to temperature anomalies.? My current understanding is on a very simplistic level. I see a big trough in the east and ridge in the west and think "good, must be cold". Obviously I have a lot to learn. You're not wrong. But I hope you like ice skating and hate snow messing it up because that's also dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: You're not wrong. But I hope you like ice skating and hate snow messing it up because that's also dry. I'll take my chances down here in NC. Storms seldom run across the gulf coast and ots. We get some overrunning even up this way if only a semblance of amplification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 12 minutes ago, CaryWx said: I'll take my chances down here in NC. Storms seldom run across the gulf coast and ots. We get some overrunning even up this way if only a semblance of amplification I would prefer for everybody to get some snow Push come to shove, I love cold, so I could survive cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 46 minutes ago, CaryWx said: I'll take my chances down here in NC. Storms seldom run across the gulf coast and ots. We get some overrunning even up this way if only a semblance of amplification Good thing it’s 300 hours out and won’t verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 hour ago, Ji said: we need to score desperately on the Jan 26 moisture event. Kinda feel like we need that as insurance policy just in case things don't go as advertised in February! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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