psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, jaydreb said: There is always a path to failure but the ensembles are still showing a path to victory so for now we can take comfort in that. The reality will probably lie somewhere in between an epic pac puke disaster and historic 2010-ish blocking. Many of us are just one more decent storm away from calling this a solid winter. i wasn't saying i believe the operationals...but arguing the idea of a "flip back" in February...what they are showing is more like no flip at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 ICE Storm for the Winchester crew though 90 on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Looks pretty decent, some good improvements through 78 with location of the low, flatter evolution at h5, and the high pressing down a bit. It should come 30-50 miles SE of where 0z was. Let's see what the next few frames have in store. Euro has a pretty smooth eastward trend the last few days. The kicker is faster every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, LP08 said: ICE Storm for the Winchester crew though 90 on the Euro Looks like west of FDK and north of OKV stays below freezing through the whole event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 EURO at 96. Western area of the forum look to never go above freezing, potential for some backside snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, Amped said: Euro has a pretty smooth eastward trend the last few days. The kicker is faster every run. Truly, us northern MD folk aren't far from getting a pretty good outcome, even on the Euro. Also a good sign as Will said in the NE forum is that the Euro isn't holding back on QPF. This is going to be a moisture laden event. A few more smooth shifts like you said and we would have a solid thump. Euro barely gets us above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 IBM Deep Thunder was shared somewhere! Posting to refer back to.. will this be something to use later? I dunno.. interesting Nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, midatlanticweather said: IBM Deep Thunder was shared somewhere! Posting to refer back to.. will this be something to use later? I dunno.. interesting Nonetheless. No thanks. I'll pass on 1 inch of ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Yes please to a great ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, MDstorm said: No thanks. I'll pass on 1 inch of ZR Not sure about amounts but the dividing line is pretty text book for some of our CAD events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: wxbell only archives a few days of EPS runs but the eps has also started pushing back the -nao. d10 from the 12z run on the 14th 0z last night \ Like I just said, a delay is fine and something that's completely normal. Not happening at all would deflate the balloon To be fair...that 12z EPS run was a blip, it went heavy and hard with blocking and sped it up a couple days faster than previous runs...remember we were comparing it to the weeklies that evening that were based on the night before...and they were progressing faster and better. The very next run of the EPS reverted to the previous look and the runs since have held. If we exclude that one run from 12z on the 14th the progression and timeline on the EPS and Weeklies has been consistent for a while now with no more than a minor move in either direction. Comparing it to that 12z run is a bit unfair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 Low single digits even in the cities Monday morning. Well below 0 in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: To be fair...that 12z EPS run was a blip, it went heavy and hard with blocking and sped it up a couple days faster than previous runs...remember we were comparing it to the weeklies that evening that were based on the night before...and they were progressing faster and better. The very next run of the EPS reverted to the previous look and the runs since have held. If we exclude that one run from 12z on the 14th the progression and timeline on the EPS and Weeklies has been consistent for a while now with no more than a minor move in either direction. Comparing it to that 12z run is a bit unfair. I only picked it because it was the farthest back I could get. I just looked at the inbetween ones and agree with everything you just said. Let's see how it looks in an hour or 2 when 12z eps comes out. Like I've said a couple times, I don't mind a delay. It's only Jan 16th. We're not racing against the clock at all. If the entire thing evaporates I may melt worse than Ji. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: To be fair...that 12z EPS run was a blip, it went heavy and hard with blocking and sped it up a couple days faster than previous runs...remember we were comparing it to the weeklies that evening that were based on the night before...and they were progressing faster and better. The very next run of the EPS reverted to the previous look and the runs since have held. If we exclude that one run from 12z on the 14th the progression and timeline on the EPS and Weeklies has been consistent for a while now with no more than a minor move in either direction. Comparing it to that 12z run is a bit unfair. I did a fairly quick look earlier and thought the same thing wrt the EPS. As for the GEFS, it still gets there but is delayed a couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 I think @Bob Chill needs to start a separate thread for the weekend event. Only him though because he's magical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I only picked it because it was the farthest back I could get. I just looked at the inbetween ones and agree with everything you just said. Let's see how it looks in an hour or 2 when 12z eps comes out. Like I've said a couple times, I don't mind a delay. It's only Jan 16th. We're not racing against the clock at all. If the entire thing evaporates I may melt worse than Ji. I am sorry I didn't mean to imply you were cherry picking or misrepresenting on purpose...I figured you just used that because it was the furthest back run archived...but I remembered that run was an anomaly and just wanted to point it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: I think @Bob Chill needs to start a separate thread for the weekend event. Only him though because he's magical. Ice storm Warning would be a nice treat. But we all know to get a good ice storm you need sub 30F...sub 25F preferred. 32 just is a lot of drip during the day. But CAD is often hard to break and seems to verify colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 @psuhoffman Haven't been looking at the CFS weeklies for a few days. Have you seen this for week 3? This would actually work really well here. It's about the only way you can have bn heights in the NW and welcome them. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Looks like some legit backside light snow on the euro? Western MD mountains stay all freezing/frozen this run. Pretty close to the Ukmet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 35 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: While the same size is small I believe someone looked at El Niños where we had SOI issues in December. Either ones that averaged near 0 or above. The tendency was for January to be decent thereafter but then February tended to revert right back to what the December pattern was. Even if the SOI in February was decently negative. I know that Will in the New England forum has said many times before that in winters where the GOA low or trof is a problem in December it often will vanish for a period in January and boom most of those winters it’s back in February and your lousy pattern resumes. We saw that with 96-97, 98-99, 99-00, 01-02, 11-12. January was by far coldest in all those winters but the bad December pattern came back after. Oh mercy...and only one those worked out in January here: 99-00. Kind of a big storm that month that put most of us at or above climo! Then February...practically nothing! Given that track record...I'd rather we try to score before January ends in case history wants to repeat itself (I hope not--only having January as a window is playing with longer odds) Again, some of this forum doesn't need to much more to hit climo...but those of us from Balt. City north? Yes, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 One other thing..when comparing the weeklies and the EPS on wxbell at least the color scale isnt the same. If you look at day 15 from last night and compare it to day 17 from the weeklies they are remarkably similar if you adjust for the different color scales being used. Example...for the weeklies day 17 its more red over greenland BUT if you look at the scale the heights are exactly the same as the day 15 EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Looks like some legit backside light snow on the euro? Western MD mountains stay all freezing/frozen this run. Pretty close to the Ukmet. Looks like not much falls after the 850 line passes at 18z, but snowmaps on stormvista do show some accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Looks like some legit backside light snow on the euro? Western MD mountains stay all freezing/frozen this run. Pretty close to the Ukmet. Very light but euro implies perhaps a flip back and some minor accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Looks like some legit backside light snow on the euro? Western MD mountains stay all freezing/frozen this run. Pretty close to the Ukmet. Sure looks that way. Ukmet did well so far, then the Euro followed. @mappy will be happy, maybe this time legit backside snows become a relaity and we crash to single digits afterward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: @psuhoffman Haven't been looking at the CFS weeklies for a few days. Have you seen this for week 3? This would actually work really well here. It's about the only way you can have bn heights in the NW and welcome them. lol Yea the CFS has fully flipped to support the Euro/UK/JMA pattern idea. The CFS started to cave early in January then had a few runs where it reverted to warm but for the last week or so has really gone strong with that look and is only getting better each day. To be fair the CFS nailed December and early January and the other seasonal guidance busted pretty badly on that period, but that only adds more weight to the fact the CFS has now come completely on board. The CFS monthly looks the same as the Euro for February now. It really is EVERYTHING vs the GFS/FV3 operationals at this point so I am not that worried. Sometimes when I point something out and discuss/analyze it people think that means I am worried about it. Noticing something and thinking critically about it is not the same thing as believing it or worrying about it. That said I will feel a LOT better once we get this look into the medium range and start tracking specific HECS threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, frd said: Sure looks that way. Ukmet did well so far, then the Euro followed. @mappy will be happy, maybe this time legit backside snows become a relaity and we crash to single digits afterward. 1-3 inches would be awesome on the backside with temps falling into the single digits overnight Sunday. I think that is probably best case scenario on the backend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 MLK weekend event thread started. Voodoo dolls and witchcraft or whatever else you can think of to avoid all rain would be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Really +NAO. Early Spring. I've seen this before when models have +NAO in the medium range and -NAO in the longer range.. the -NAO doesn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 6 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Really +NAO. Early Spring. I've seen this before when models have +NAO in the medium range and -NAO in the longer range.. the -NAO doesn't happen. Randy will be along shortly to tell you what to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: MLK weekend event thread started. Voodoo dolls and witchcraft or whatever else you can think of to avoid all rain would be good. Leesburg dosent make it past 34 per euro. So much for 60? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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