January/February Medium/Long Range Disco

[Maestrobjwa]

19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Bob Chill at least the 12z gfs op shows some signs at the very end that the pacific reversion was only temporary and the expected pattern MIGHT be resuming...ridging heading up towards AK and the trough in the west progressing east... maybe it is a delay caused by the MJO into warm phases again..but we are getting a little late for more delays.  I guess if the pattern gets there in early Feb vs late Jan its not the end of the world...we got some snow on the board already, you more than me, and I know the sun angle crew will be working hard by then but with good blocking we are still in prime snow climo into early March...even later if its epic blocking as we saw last year.  But at some point this has to stop teasing and progress into the medium range.  

If this winter doesn't quite work out...who gets the blame? The MJO or the PAC? To me, those two seem like the big villains of the winter, smh (and why is it so hard for long range guidance to predict them right?)

[Ji]

It's hard to imagine because it's so rare but the GEFS is delaying the -NAO. 

I kept trying to tell you based on the weeklies we were behind schedule

[Bob Chill]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

If this winter doesn't quite work out...who gets the blame? The MJO or the PAC? To me, those two seem like the big villains of the winter, smh (and why is it so hard for long range guidance to predict them right?)

Don't overthink. Weather is going to weather and no detailed explanation is always needed. 

The reason long range guidance moves around so much is because we are literally decades away from a high level of accuracy beyond a week. Models are MUCH better than just 5 years ago but a LONG ways away from nailing anything 10 or 15 or 30 days out in time. 

[yoda]

I'd like this... though the ridge out west isn't great

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

The discussion is scary on this forum but you all are using OP runs at 384..that's a ji move

There are some troubling trends on the ensembles...the blocking signal is not growing stronger as it moves closer..and the 12z just slowed the progression about 24 hours.  That isn't a big deal in itself...could be noise at that range,  BUT it's been a general trend for 2 days now across guidance.  As the blocking moves closer the height anomalies SHOULD be increasing as divergent members fall away.  That is not happening because if anything divergence is increasing. That is a red flag sometimes.  This isn't a 4 alarm fire yet.  Right now it is just a somewhat troubling trend.  But ignoring it won't make it not so.  

[DDweatherman]

We really need to split this thread up, regardless of the weekend implications. 

Its wednesday, and Saturday is in the long range thread. 

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

three runs ago

12z 

 

 

On the bright side...if we are going to get a severely displaced PV into Hudson Bay with arctic cold into the CONUS (and that part is 100% across guidance) then having that WAR there might actually help us get systems up the east coast in the day 8-12 period.  

[psuhoffman]

@Bob Chill before we panic everyone, the delay is only about 24 hours, and it does still get to the exact same idea...ridge centered over greenland linking the EPO and NAO ridge...PV in eastern canada and this run even has hints of some PNA ridging trying to get going...

The delay is troubling but a 24 hour difference can be noise at that range so this isn't a reason to be jumping yet but its not the trend we want to see either.  

[Bob Chill]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

On the bright side...if we are going to get a severely displaced PV into Hudson Bay with arctic cold into the CONUS (and that part is 100% across guidance) then having that WAR there might actually help us get systems up the east coast in the day 8-12 period.  

I'm not all up in arms about anything honestly. I just like freeking Ji out. It's a sadistic pleasure that I can't explain why it's so satisfying. 

At the end of the day (or any winter season) 90% of our events happen during flawed (or strange) setups. Big dogs are different. We can fluke a big dog every once in a while but they far more often than not need the pretty reds and blues to be mostly in the right places. Like I said last night, I don't expect a shutout for the rest of Jan (not even including tomorrow night's deal) but I also don't see an easy path to a clean/big snowstorm anytime soon. That's really all I was saying last night. To expect events if they happen to be jacked up or mixed or flawed or whatever you want to call it. 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Don't overthink. Weather is going to weather and no detailed explanation is always needed. 

The reason long range guidance moves around so much is because we are literally decades away from a high level of accuracy beyond a week. Models are MUCH better than just 5 years ago but a LONG ways away from nailing anything 10 or 15 or 30 days out in time. 

So ya really can't know?...Hard not to get sucked in (especially with the words like "classic" being thrown around...) But no matter how good it looks, I guess we really can't know. We want LR guidance to tell the story, but...perhaps we are asking too much!

[Jandurin]

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So ya really can't know?

[Bob Chill]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

So ya really can't know?...Hard not to get sucked in (especially with the words like "classic" being thrown around...) But no matter how good it looks, I guess we really can't know. We want LR guidance to tell the story, but...perhaps we are asking too much!

Think of it this way...

When long range stuff looks like a money or classic and amazing pattern, expect a toned down (but still good) version in reality. When models show a complete disaster, expect it to be far worse than even your worst nightmares. If you use that approach you will be right far more often than wrong. Our climo is very hit and miss for a reason. We underperform in winter way more often than overperform. That's never going to change. However, when we overperform we can double or triple or even quadruple our average snowfall. Boom/bust is very real here. The huge winters give a false impression that we can get big snow years anytime when in reality expecting every winter to be so-so and not memorable wins the guessing game.  

[frd]

9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm not all up in arms about anything honestly. I just like freeking Ji out. It's a sadistic pleasure that I can't explain why it's so satisfying.

This brings character to the long range thread.

I like this side of Bob.  I myself need a break from model comments every tenth post,  and this way I don't have to go to banter.  :-) 

[nj2va]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Bob Chill before we panic everyone, the delay is only about 24 hours, and it does still get to the exact same idea...ridge centered over greenland linking the EPO and NAO ridge...PV in eastern canada and this run even has hints of some PNA ridging trying to get going...

The delay is troubling but a 24 hour difference can be noise at that range so this isn't a reason to be jumping yet but its not the trend we want to see either.  

After reading the posts here, I expected a week delay or something like that.  24 hours isn't a big deal at range.  

[Bob Chill]

Just now, frd said:

This brings character to the long range thread.

I like this side of Bob.  I myself need a break from model comments every tenth post,  and this way I don't have to go to banter.  :-) 

I can be like a dog that gets left alone at home too long. The more the boredom sets in, the stronger the urge to start trouble. I'm a little bored again so...

[psuhoffman]

@Bob Chill I went back to see when the gfs twins op runs lost the blocking...it started to lose it 2 days ago...instead of the PV dropping in after the cutter next week and the atlantic ridging retrogressing over the top of it and setting off the whole chain reaction, they started to show the PV rotating through then retreating back up to Greenland instead...deflecting the WAR off...knocking that down but also preventing the NAO from flipping.  At the same time it starts to knock down the EPO ridge, which I think is linked...it was the weakness over the top from that that was allowing the atlantic ridging to link up, no weakness from the Pac side and no retrogression of the atlantic ridge.  But the idea of the PV retreating back up and the AO not flipping has been on the operationals now for a few runs.  At this range the ensembles are still way more important but it is odd that the operationals and the control of the euro have such a different progression consistently for several runs like that.  Red flag or just an oddity or fluke of percentages?

[winterymix]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

I can be like a dog that gets left alone at home too long. The more the boredom sets in, the stronger the urge to start trouble. I'm a little bored again so...

Giant dorper behind the armoire.

[CAPE]

Just now, nj2va said:

After reading the posts here, I expected a week delay or something like that.  24 hours isn't a big deal at range.  

EPS has continued to look good to me. Matches the weeklies progression pretty well. I will go with the best global model in the world, for now.

Let them continue to fuss about the GFS op backing off the -NAO in the LR.  

[EastCoast NPZ]

30 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's hard to imagine because it's so rare but the GEFS is delaying the -NAO. 

No biggie; it'll be here just in time for April.

[Bob Chill]

Just now, nj2va said:

After reading the posts here, I expected a week delay or something like that.  24 hours isn't a big deal at range.  

The key is to not lose 24 hours every 24 hours. I don't take ops seriously with backyard wx in fantasy land but with that said, I do want ops to mirror the ensembles in fantasy range more often than not because it adds confidence. Last couple gfs runs were not confidence builders. Prior to that both the gfs and fv3 were building attractive blocking during the same time the ens were. We're seeing some divergence. Could be noise. Could be typical terrible accuracy. Or it could be a warning shot across the bow. I don't mind a reasonable delay at all. Been through countless delays. What I do mind is a total bust and reversion to a pac barf. That would suck because those patterns take several weeks to recover from and once we hit Feb, a couple weeks puts us in a difficult position to pull it off before the calendar shuts us down. 

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

@Bob Chill I went back to see when the gfs twins op runs lost the blocking...it started to lose it 2 days ago...instead of the PV dropping in after the cutter next week and the atlantic ridging retrogressing over the top of it and setting off the whole chain reaction, they started to show the PV rotating through then retreating back up to Greenland instead...deflecting the WAR off...knocking that down but also preventing the NAO from flipping.  At the same time it starts to knock down the EPO ridge, which I think is linked...it was the weakness over the top from that that was allowing the atlantic ridging to link up, no weakness from the Pac side and no retrogression of the atlantic ridge.  But the idea of the PV retreating back up and the AO not flipping has been on the operationals now for a few runs.  At this range the ensembles are still way more important but it is odd that the operationals and the control of the euro have such a different progression consistently for several runs like that.  Red flag or just an oddity or fluke of percentages?

While the same size is small I believe someone looked at El Niños where we had SOI issues in December.  Either ones that averaged near 0 or above.  The tendency was for January to be decent thereafter but then February tended to revert right back to what the December pattern was.  Even if the SOI in February was decently negative.  I know that Will in the New England forum has said many times before that in winters where the GOA low or trof is a problem in December it often will vanish for a period in January and boom most of those winters it’s back in February and your lousy pattern resumes. We saw that with 96-97, 98-99, 99-00, 01-02, 11-12.  January was by far coldest in all those winters but the bad December pattern came back after.  

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

No biggie; it'll be here just in time for April.

I'll take it. Maybe we wont hit 80 until May this year.

[Maestrobjwa]

11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Think of it this way...

When long range stuff looks like a money or classic and amazing pattern, expect a toned down (but still good) version in reality. When models show a complete disaster, expect it to be far worse than even your worst nightmares. If you use that approach you will be right far more often than wrong. Our climo is very hit and miss for a reason. We underperform in winter way more often than overperform. That's never going to change. However, when we overperform we can double or triple or even quadruple our average snowfall. Boom/bust is very real here. The huge winters give a false impression that we can get big snow years anytime when in reality expecting every winter to be so-so and not memorable wins the guessing game.  

Now this here...What really helps make that reality clear is to just look at our snow records going all the way back to 1883/84. That shows you just how hit-or-miss things can be. I have been pouring over those snow records all winter to get better idea...and maybe try to guess where we might be headed, lol. Trend is...big winter, 2-3 years (and in only three or four cases...4 years) below average, then big again. So if ya wanna long range guess...the longer we go below average snowfall, the more likely that 3rd or 4th year is gonna be better, lol

[frd]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Bob Chill I went back to see when the gfs twins op runs lost the blocking...it started to lose it 2 days ago...instead of the PV dropping in after the cutter next week and the atlantic ridging retrogressing over the top of it and setting off the whole chain reaction, they started to show the PV rotating through then retreating back up to Greenland instead...deflecting the WAR off...knocking that down but also preventing the NAO from flipping.  At the same time it starts to knock down the EPO ridge, which I think is linked...it was the weakness over the top from that that was allowing the atlantic ridging to link up, no weakness from the Pac side and no retrogression of the atlantic ridge.  But the idea of the PV retreating back up and the AO not flipping has been on the operationals now for a few runs.  At this range the ensembles are still way more important but it is odd that the operationals and the control of the euro have such a different progression consistently for several runs like that.  Red flag or just an oddity or fluke of percentages?

 

@psuhoffman This echoes your thoughts and Europe is having an issue as well.

So far the SSWE has not brought upon the expected outcomes

 

 

[WEATHER53]

Breaks down like this

low moves right over or just east of DC. Snow on front end then DC gets into 35-39* ranged with a drizzly, foggy, light rain mess. Norfolk hits 60. Low moves northeast late Saturday night/early Sunday morning, temps fall 20 degrees in 3 hours, back to all snow and ending near noon Sunday

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

While the same size is small I believe someone looked at El Niños where we had SOI issues in December.  Either ones that averaged near 0 or above.  The tendency was for January to be decent thereafter but then February tended to revert right back to what the December pattern was.  Even if the SOI in February was decently negative.  I know that Will in the New England forum has said many times before that in winters where the GOA low or trof is a problem in December it often will vanish for a period in January and boom most of those winters it’s back in February and your lousy pattern resumes. We saw that with 96-97, 98-99, 99-00, 01-02, 11-12.  January was by far coldest in all those winters but the bad December pattern came back after.  

Yea but the GFS/fv2 operationals never actually flip the pattern to have a flip back.  We are in what is supposed to be the "transition" to a blocking pattern right now, but as isotherm and HM have said it's being delayed and destructively interfered with by the MJO wave.  The ops though revert right back to a pacific jet driven pattern before we ever fully get into a better pattern.  Remember, places north of Baltimore still have not had any snow and coastal areas are likely not to have much the next 10 days...if the pattern reverts right back to a fully crappy pattern after only a kinda sorta crappy pattern that isnt really a flip back...it would be more like a total fail straight through to me.  

[MD Snow]

Hearing the euro is coming in south and flatter.

[Bob Chill]

wxbell only archives a few days of EPS runs but the eps has also started pushing back the -nao.

d10 from the 12z run on the 14th

 

0z last night

\

 

Like I just said, a delay is fine and something that's completely normal. Not happening at all would deflate the balloon 

[DDweatherman]

5 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

Hearing the euro is coming in south of 6z. 

Looks pretty decent, some good improvements through 78 with location of the low, flatter evolution at h5, and the high pressing down a bit. It should come 30-50 miles SE of where 0z was. Let's see what the next few frames have in store. 

[jaydreb]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea but the GFS/fv2 operationals never actually flip the pattern to have a flip back.  We are in what is supposed to be the "transition" to a blocking pattern right now, but as isotherm and HM have said it's being delayed and destructively interfered with by the MJO wave.  The ops though revert right back to a pacific jet driven pattern before we ever fully get into a better pattern.  Remember, places north of Baltimore still have not had any snow and coastal areas are likely not to have much the next 10 days...if the pattern reverts right back to a fully crappy pattern after only a kinda sorta crappy pattern that isnt really a flip back...it would be more like a total fail straight through to me.  

There is always a path to failure but the ensembles are still showing a path to victory so for now we can take comfort in that.  The reality will probably lie somewhere in between an epic pac puke disaster and historic 2010-ish blocking.  Many of us are just one more decent storm away from calling this a solid winter.