Chris78 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, yoda said: 12z UKIE remains pretty much the same.... SLP at 72 is along the OK/AR border and at 96 the SLP is in SW VA I didn't see a map posted for last night. I assume it's a big step back from yesterday's 12z run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 36 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It was a really nice event... from a few days out models were forecasting rain even though we had an arctic blast with below 0 temps the day before but the main wave was taking a west track. Then as we got inside 72 hours the guidance started trending colder and colder...but it wasn't really the track that changed just the guidance started to see the cold wasn't going to be evacuated so quick and we would get a nice WAA thump. In the end I had about 7" up here...some places just south of me in central MD got about a foot. I think DC and Baltimore ended up with like 4-6". Then we got some ice on top just to protect our snowpack! One of the best late positive trend fluke bootleg track storms ever! It kind of reminded me a little of the one frontal wave system in 1994 that dumped a foot of snow just north of our area in PA from a west track...only displaced slightly south. If you put arctic air in the way of a storm it gives us a lot more wiggle room for flaws. Yep! Remember it well! Started off cold and almost powdery, and slowly got wetter and then some freezing drizzle/light rain at the end, but got my snow and I was surprised I barely had any rain or melt! Did the ULL also get involved later for some regions? I seem to remember people turning back to snow, but I never got any love from that part of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 hug the ICON front end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: The gfs tries something similar to the ggem but a day slower and doesn't quite pull it off but the overall evolution is similar enough to think that type of progression has a chance. Did you see the crazy CMC for late next week? Has areas far up North with a modeled SECS, or more. Seems the snow rain line is close by to us. Low to the BM I think. But, I never see that model getting a surprise win. I think verificatioin top 3 are: EPS Euro Ukmet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, frd said: Did you see the crazy CMC for late next week? Has areas far up North with a modeled SECS, or more. Seems the snow rain line is close by to us. Low to the BM I think. But, I never see that model getting a surprise win. I think verificatioin top 3 are: EPS Euro Ukmet yea that was the h5 progression I posted above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: yea that was the h5 progression I posted above Fantasy gfs seems to be throwing out some warning signs for the neg nao not going as planned last few runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 GFS op is stubbornly not wanting to flip the AO or NAO negative... again it does it by reverting the pacific pattern which relieves the forcing on the high lat from the EPO side which prevents the atlantic ridge from retrograding and the AO remains negative...transient cold then the east goes back into pac puke ridge. Just an op at range but its been doing it for several runs in a row. ninja'd by @Bob Chill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: yea that was the h5 progression I posted above Your on the ball psu. I am going to miss your updates when you are skiing next week LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: GFS op is stubbornly not wanting to flip the AO or NAO negative... again it does it by reverting the pacific pattern which relieves the forcing on the high lat from the EPO side which prevents the atlantic ridge from retrograding and the AO remains negative...transient cold then the east goes back into pac puke ridge. Just an op at range but its been doing it for several runs in a row. ninja'd by @Bob Chill Multiple runs is alarming for sure. Hoping ensembles do not agree and we see this go away next run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Fantasy gfs seems to be throwing out some warning signs for the neg nao not going as planned last few runs... yea its troubling...as long as we don't see that start to show up on the ensembles its ok I guess but its a total disaster...not even close to the progression we are expecting. I really do think the key is on the pac side though...the NAO is a response to the initial ridging from the pacific side into the AO space...which the atlantic ridge takes advantage of to retrograde and link up. No pacific ridge and no NAO ridge. THe gfs and fv3 have been reverting the pacific to the previous pattern which destroys the EPO ridge and the rest of the pattern breaks down before it even gets started. That would be an epic fail if it went down that way. Euro control did the same thing actually...but the majority of the ensembles, especially at 6z said that was not how this goes down. But at what point would you start to worry that the more skilled operational and control runs seem to see things differently? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 I guess we won't really know until it happens or it doesn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 @Bob Chill at least the 12z gfs op shows some signs at the very end that the pacific reversion was only temporary and the expected pattern MIGHT be resuming...ridging heading up towards AK and the trough in the west progressing east... maybe it is a delay caused by the MJO into warm phases again..but we are getting a little late for more delays. I guess if the pattern gets there in early Feb vs late Jan its not the end of the world...we got some snow on the board already, you more than me, and I know the sun angle crew will be working hard by then but with good blocking we are still in prime snow climo into early March...even later if its epic blocking as we saw last year. But at some point this has to stop teasing and progress into the medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Now that is an interesting 12z UKMET track after hour 90... 90 -- 997mb SLP C KY/C TN border 96 -- SW VA 102 -- 996mb SLP South central VA 108 -- 994mb SLP 100 miles east of Ocean City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, yoda said: Now that is an interesting 12z UKMET track after hour 90... Will be interesting to see if the Euro looks like the UKMET. Too soon to give up hope of a front end thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: yea its troubling...as long as we don't see that start to show up on the ensembles its ok I guess but its a total disaster...not even close to the progression we are expecting. I really do think the key is on the pac side though...the NAO is a response to the initial ridging from the pacific side into the AO space...which the atlantic ridge takes advantage of to retrograde and link up. No pacific ridge and no NAO ridge. THe gfs and fv3 have been reverting the pacific to the previous pattern which destroys the EPO ridge and the rest of the pattern breaks down before it even gets started. That would be an epic fail if it went down that way. Euro control did the same thing actually...but the majority of the ensembles, especially at 6z said that was not how this goes down. But at what point would you start to worry that the more skilled operational and control runs seem to see things differently? This is why some of us track every little threat like our lives depended on it. We know that any long range epic pattern could vanish quickly...not saying it’s going to...blah blah... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 10 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I guess we won't really know until it happens or it doesn't We are who we thought we were Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Bob Chill at least the 12z gfs op shows some signs at the very end that the pacific reversion was only temporary and the expected pattern MIGHT be resuming...ridging heading up towards AK and the trough in the west progressing east... maybe it is a delay caused by the MJO into warm phases again..but we are getting a little late for more delays. I guess if the pattern gets there in early Feb vs late Jan its not the end of the world...we got some snow on the board already, you more than me, and I know the sun angle crew will be working hard by then but with good blocking we are still in prime snow climo into early March...even later if its epic blocking as we saw last year. But at some point this has to stop teasing and progress into the medium range. One out of 10 times the strat saves us but it sorta saved us last year so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 7 minutes ago, yoda said: Now that is an interesting 12z UKMET track after hour 90... 90 -- 997mb SLP C KY/C TN border 96 -- SW VA 102 -- 996mb SLP South central VA 108 -- 994mb SLP 100 miles east of Ocean City ehh just from that mslp track you posted I would guess the initial wave that gets up to our west wrecks the mids, perhaps that secondary wave that takes over to our south could do something but it would have some work to do to fix the damage from the initial wave to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 28 minutes ago, Ji said: hug the ICON front end If you're gonna hug something a German model isn't a bad choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Now that is an interesting 12z UKMET track after hour 90... 90 -- 997mb SLP C KY/C TN border 96 -- SW VA 102 -- 996mb SLP South central VA 108 -- 994mb SLP 100 miles east of Ocean CityIt's only interesting if it's a snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 I suspect we will see a solution in the next day or two that is a pure sleet bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, Ji said: It's only interesting if it's a snowstorm It destroys the NE so there's that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, Ji said: It's only interesting if it's a snowstorm You complained when I meh'd the 00z GEFS members... so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 It's hard to imagine because it's so rare but the GEFS is delaying the -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: One out of 10 times the strat saves us but it sorta saved us last year so... yea but I am not in the camp that thinks the strat has to save us...the seasonal guidance was showing a blocking look the second half of winter way before the idea of a sswe showed up back in the fall. The sswe might be helping now but it seemed the guidance wanted us to go there...and plenty of the analogs went there without a sswe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 The discussion is scary on this forum but you all are using OP runs at 384..that's a ji move Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, Ji said: The discussion is scary on this forum but you all are using OP runs at 384..that's a ji move three runs ago 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: The discussion is scary on this forum but you all are using OP runs at 384..that's a ji move uh oh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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