Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Maybe the WAR rolls over sooner than we think. Just a moment in time but it's nice to look at. TPV is strong enough to bully through anything though. I just like the pretty colors over the Davis Strait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 On 1/24/2019 at 6:40 PM, Bob Chill said: Maybe the WAR rolls over sooner than we think. Just a moment in time but it's nice to look at. TPV is strong enough to bully through anything though. I just like the pretty colors over the Davis Strait. Expand @Bob Chill making good vibes great again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Better and better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 On 1/24/2019 at 8:06 PM, LP08 said: Better and better... Expand Another tick in the right direction. EPS and GEFS have all but cancelled any "relax" or "disaster". How much better can it get in 10 days? I'm going with my gut and saying we're in good shape in general from here on out. EPS has shifted significantly colder in the mids coast to coast over the last 4 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 On 1/24/2019 at 8:13 PM, Bob Chill said: Another tick in the right direction. EPS and GEFS have all but cancelled any "relax" or "disaster". How much better can it get in 10 days? I'm going with my gut and saying we're in good shape in general from here on out. EPS has shifted significantly colder in the mids coast to coast over the last 4 runs. Expand It's nice too that the "reshuffle" when the PV lifts is setting up one of our better looks of the winter as well. Tracking 2 events within 10 days with the above map for the future...sign me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 On 1/24/2019 at 8:15 PM, LP08 said: It's nice too that the "reshuffle" when the PV lifts is setting up one of our better looks of the winter as well. Tracking 2 events within 10 days with the above map for the future...sign me up. Expand Yea, pretty good EPS run but tricky with the PNA/EPO ridge so far west. Blocking is required to keep the east cold and storm track suppressed. Which brings me to an example...lol...control run is close to a hecs look. Cold mids coast to coast...potential 50/50 on the way in... heh. Just need the west based NAO to flex and this panel would be excellent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 On 1/24/2019 at 8:13 PM, Bob Chill said: Another tick in the right direction. EPS and GEFS have all but cancelled any "relax" or "disaster". How much better can it get in 10 days? I'm going with my gut and saying we're in good shape in general from here on out. EPS has shifted significantly colder in the mids coast to coast over the last 4 runs. Expand I would like to think they are both seeing the better outcomes with the MJO. Maybe we do get the weeklies look afterall. I think first they ( EPS and the GEFS) sense the upcoming changes but as Earthlight alluded too they changes are washed out and smoothed over in the ensembles intially, but now they are all latching onto the positive changes in the Pac and the more favorable forcing as well and you are seeing those outcomes in the much improved EPS. Game time coming up . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Woah....so much for the circle of death Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 On 1/24/2019 at 9:47 PM, Ji said: Woah....so much for the circle of death Expand That's a big change from even just yesterday, isn't it? Or was that the Euro's forecast I'm thinking of? Either way, yeah, there were a lot of members going into the COD but also many pushing into 7 at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 If it goes to phase 8 with that much amplitude in feb....wowzers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 EPS weeklies look solid. A bit too much WAR still with western ridge axis a tad too far west through about mid Feb, then h5 look gets very good beyond that. -AO/NAO is prominent throughout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 On 1/24/2019 at 10:00 PM, Ji said: If it goes to phase 8 with that much amplitude in feb....wowzers Expand Cold and dry + congrats atlanta? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 PD3 look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 On 1/24/2019 at 10:51 PM, C.A.P.E. said: EPS weeklies look solid. A bit too much WAR still with western ridge axis a tad too far west through about mid Feb, then h5 look gets very good beyond that. -AO/NAO is prominent throughout. Expand Don't worry, EPS is speeding up the better pac already. It will prob knock down the war over the weekend so monday's weeklies will be perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 On 1/24/2019 at 10:58 PM, Bob Chill said: Don't worry, EPS is speeding up the better pac already. It will prob knock down the war over the weekend so monday's weeklies will be perfect Expand Me, worry? lol But yeah I think the really good look will move forward in time. EPS is moving that way pretty quickly. GEFS is too- better western ridge axis location last couple runs towards D15, and has been pretty gung-ho with legit NA blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Thoughts? It's an op but I'm trying to learn. Looks good to me? No? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 On 1/24/2019 at 10:55 PM, Bob Chill said: Cold and dry + congrats atlanta? Expand We need some snow before the TPV drops the Arctic hammer late next week. Snow followed by brutal cold would be awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 On 1/24/2019 at 11:08 PM, MD Snow said: Thoughts? Expand Keeps getting better but just wait a couple days when the -nao comes in even stronger with multiple big storms then don't look at any more models because it can only go downhill from there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 On 1/24/2019 at 11:03 PM, C.A.P.E. said: Me, worry? lol But yeah I think the really good look will move forward in time. EPS is moving that way pretty quickly. GEFS is too- better western ridge axis location last couple runs towards D15, and has been pretty gung-ho with legit NA blocking. Expand Lol- yea, I think this is the real deal now. May not hit perfection because it's really hard to never have too much of something and too little of something else. I'm really digging where the eps is going. Broad continental trough with na blocking is one of the few patterns where you can get an long track mecs that drops snow on a really large piece of real estate. In the mean time, fast flow and northern stream activity seems like a lock in the mid range. Def no chance of a long track with that regime. Guidance is showing enough support for some snow before the hammer to keep us optimistic for now. If a real pattern seems imminent and we fail on the the pre arctic shot i really won't mind. My illegal skating pond nearby might have perfect ice conditions. 3 days of sub freezing conditions with single digit lows is all that's necessary for 3.5" of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 This is a pretty good h5 mean. Starting to see some consistency with building a west based block and not d15+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 On 1/24/2019 at 11:40 PM, Bob Chill said: This is a pretty good h5 mean. Starting to see some consistency with building a west based block and not d15+. Expand Nice NA look on that panel. Indication of a trough near 50-50 with the +heights displaced off of the maritimes, and a ridge pushing into Baffin Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 25, 2019 Author Share Posted January 25, 2019 I find the weeklies’ snowfall maps useless but at 10”, it would put DC 25% over climo for the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 On 1/24/2019 at 11:58 PM, C.A.P.E. said: Nice NA look on that panel. Indication of a trough near 50-50 with the +heights displaced off of the maritimes, and a ridge pushing into Baffin Bay. Expand It has to work out sometime!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 On 1/24/2019 at 10:00 PM, Ji said: If it goes to phase 8 with that much amplitude in feb....wowzers Expand Really encouraging. Thanks, Ji. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 I was right about the -PNA during El Nino. 18z GFS ensembles now have it only developing as a loading pattern for -WPO, versus being a primary factor. I wonder if the +subsurface ENSO wave will continue stronger now that models have changed, having implications for next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 On 1/24/2019 at 11:40 PM, Bob Chill said: This is a pretty good h5 mean. Starting to see some consistency with building a west based block and not d15+. Expand I don't know Bob Canada looks a little too far north on that map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Posted 35 minutes ago Courtesy 33andrain Retrograding NAO block on the Euro weeklies, originating in the Kara Sea/Scandinavia and ending up in Canada. This fits perfectly with the progression of subseasonal tropical pacific forcing and in the wake of the SSW. It’s not just a fantasy, folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 It's taking every bit of rationality I can muster up to keep from making pointless Debbie downer posts like "we know it's not going to happen". If I was an actual MA guy, I think I would be close to the reaping stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 Still waiting on the SOI to turn negative and it appears that the overnight Euro was not as robust about the cold later in the run. What implications this has on any storms to early to tell. Daily contribution to SOI calculation 4.43 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 25, 2019 Share Posted January 25, 2019 This should spark something if correct. A very robust signal there ( and only a few days away ) I believe the AO would react to going severely negative. If this were to occur I imagine a lag and this is pegged tp happen near Feb 1 st. ( and continue beyond this date ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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