Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 On 1/20/2019 at 3:47 PM, PivotPoint said: Lol Got all our bases covered on that one Expand Believe it or not, i don't really enjoy talking about d15 or monthly stuff. My favorite thing to discuss by a huge margin is a discrete threat. Unfortunately living in this region isn't very forgiving with the number of discrete threats in a season so by default I'm forced to talk about fantasyland. My instincts are telling me at least one discrete threat will materialize not too far in the future. Can't happen soon enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorm5921 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 On 1/20/2019 at 4:21 PM, Bob Chill said: If it comes back will you promise to leave and never come back? Better yet, no matter what happens you should stop visiting subs you don't live in and never come back. You make me want it to rain meteors in PA and that's not fair to all the good hearted people in your region. Expand Raining meteors would be fantastic given the boredom since November. Appreciate it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 I can't be the only one who is seriously bummed we're going to go rain, bitter cold, and then more rain in a matter of 4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Can someone please build a digital wall to keep out the garbage posts from unwanted visitors. I’ll put in $5.70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorm5921 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 GFS flips the pac to garbage by day 12 just in time for another Rainer. Damn MJO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorm5921 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 It basically ends winter. No -NAO to speak of. Hopefully the ensembles sing a different tune! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inthepines Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 On 1/20/2019 at 4:48 PM, Snowstorm5921 said: It basically ends winter. No -NAO to speak of. Hopefully the ensembles sing a different tune! Expand On 1/20/2019 at 4:47 PM, Snowstorm5921 said: GFS flips the pac to garbage by day 12 just in time for another Rainer. Damn MJO. Expand Lol! Are you sure you’re looking at the right model? I see three potential snow events and wall to wall cold on the 12z GFS. ETA: guess he’s just trolling pretty hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 On 1/20/2019 at 4:41 PM, Steve25 said: I can't be the only one who is seriously bummed we're going to go rain, bitter cold, and then more rain in a matter of 4 days. Expand It is not an unusual winter weather pattern here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 On 1/20/2019 at 2:55 PM, pasnownut said: it definitely earned some street creds from this past event. Expand Yeah...It did really well with 12/9 down here in RVA. I definitely doubted it until Euro jumped on about 12/7 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 On 1/20/2019 at 4:48 PM, Snowstorm5921 said: It basically ends winter. No -NAO to speak of. Hopefully the ensembles sing a different tune! Expand An Op run? Cmon dude you are really getting on everyone’s nerves. You got people looking for the ignore feature like it’s the last beer on earth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 On 1/20/2019 at 4:47 PM, Snowstorm5921 said: GFS flips the pac to garbage by day 12 just in time for another Rainer. Damn MJO. Expand Can we get at least a 5 post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 On 1/20/2019 at 4:29 PM, Bob Chill said: Believe it or not, i don't really enjoy talking about d15 or monthly stuff. My favorite thing to discuss by a huge margin is a discrete threat. Unfortunately living in this region isn't very forgiving with the number of discrete threats in a season so by default I'm forced to talk about fantasyland. My instincts are telling me at least one discrete threat will materialize not too far in the future. Can't happen soon enough Expand I agree. I learned a couple years back that talking long range is like tossing a dart blindfolded... after being spun around 6 times... drunk. You’ll get about the same accuracy as the big boy predictions I don’t think we get shut out next two weeks but the Pac jet gearing back up could spell trouble if the NAO flips neutral to positive Im hoping for some ridging to get back in the right spot out west then we can use a little luck with a decent Atlantic and score something big, small, either is fine by me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 On 1/20/2019 at 4:53 PM, losetoa6 said: Anyone have the Ukie? Meteocentre is delayed Expand Looks better than 00z imo. Maybe someone with better Ukie maps could chime in. Basically the slp travels from upstate SC to VA Beach. Further SE than 00z. Precip maps look pretty good also for this time period. I just dont know for sure about P types. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 On 1/20/2019 at 5:07 PM, PivotPoint said: I agree. I learned a couple years back that talking long range is like tossing a dart blindfolded... after being spun around 6 times... drunk. You’ll get about the same accuracy as the big boy predictions I don’t think we get shut out next two weeks but the Pac jet gearing back up could spell trouble if the NAO flips neutral to positive Im hoping for some riding to get back in the right spot out west then we can use a little luck with a decent Atlantic and score something big, small, either is fine by me Expand If the last couple weeks and the 2 weeks in front of us have taught us anything... No pattern has legs. Good or bad. So even if the trough digs west, are we really that sure it's going to stay that way for weeks on end? I'll take the way under if the neg pna develops in the first place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 On 1/20/2019 at 5:07 PM, PivotPoint said: I agree. I learned a couple years back that talking long range is like tossing a dart blindfolded... after being spun around 6 times... drunk. You’ll get about the same accuracy as the big boy predictions I don’t think we get shut out next two weeks but the Pac jet gearing back up could spell trouble if the NAO flips neutral to positive Im hoping for some ridging to get back in the right spot out west then we can use a little luck with a decent Atlantic and score something big, small, either is fine by me Expand Models doing the Bird Box Challenge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 I just want a hecs...one simple slow moving Miller A. Basically a cold version of every storm we have had this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 On 1/20/2019 at 5:12 PM, Ji said: I just want a hecs...one simple slow moving Miller A. Basically a cold version of every storm we have had this winter Expand We have 6 weeks before the calendar starts doing the dirtywork. Right now i only care about the rest of Jan. Getting totally blanked seems unlikely to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Gefs looks pretty good Sun/Mon. Member solutions are encouraging as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 On 1/20/2019 at 5:20 PM, Bob Chill said: We have 6 weeks before the calendar starts doing the dirtywork. Right now i only care about the rest of Jan. Getting totally blanked seems unlikely to me. Expand Seriously...I think Ji ends January over 20" on the year with 15 of that coming in January. Solid to above solid winter. And I bet march delivers his slow mover... 4" of qpf at 4:1 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 On 1/20/2019 at 5:23 PM, Bob Chill said: Gefs looks pretty good Sun/Mon. Member solutions are encouraging as well. Expand But that loser from PA already said winter is cancelled, so it’s impossible. In all seriousness this looks like our next window and it should be more than cold enough. Nice to see the GEFS develops a low much further south than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Very hard to capture timing spread with a single panel but this shows a good snapshot of overhead and upstream. If you're looking at d15 pna problems you're missing what's right under our noses inside of d10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 Would people prefer two threads? One for only storms and one for pattern? Other options? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorm5921 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 GEFS unfortunately breaking down the pacific as well. Hopefully can salvage something before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 On 1/20/2019 at 5:12 PM, Ji said: I just want a hecs...one simple slow moving Miller A. Basically a cold version of every storm we have had this winter Expand Give us a cold pattern.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 How about a thread for just one poster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 On 1/20/2019 at 5:27 PM, WxUSAF said: Would people prefer two threads? One for only storms and one for pattern? Other options? Expand One thread should be more than enough but it requires critical thinking and modest levels of maturity. So what I'm really saying is we need 15 garbage threads and one intelligent one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 On 1/20/2019 at 5:29 PM, Bob Chill said: One thread should be more than enough but it requires critical thinking and modest levels of maturity. So what I'm really saying is we need 15 garbage threads and one intelligent one. Expand We could go back to removing lots of crap posts that upsets people just as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 On 1/20/2019 at 5:27 PM, WxUSAF said: Would people prefer two threads? One for only storms and one for pattern? Other options? Expand I'd recommend a specific thread for members in need to asseverate the psychological impact of not getting enough of the type of weather that they perseverate about endlessly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 On 1/20/2019 at 5:27 PM, WxUSAF said: Would people prefer two threads? One for only storms and one for pattern? Other options? Expand That would be fantastic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 20, 2019 Share Posted January 20, 2019 The look of the GEFS after day 10 look icy to me. A ton of low level cold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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