Ji Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 On 1/19/2019 at 5:48 PM, Bob Chill said: I don't understand why there's any bickering or panic. I can't find anything other than 10-15 day ops that show anything worth getting mad at. Expand if there is any rain after next weekend...it will be considered on of the most epic long range forecasts in my tracking history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 On 1/19/2019 at 6:14 PM, Ji said: if there is any rain after next weekend...it will be considered on of the most epic long range forecasts in my tracking history Expand There is a 100% chance we get multiple rain events after next weekend through the end of Feb. Sorry dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 On 1/19/2019 at 6:20 PM, Bob Chill said: There is a 100% chance we get multiple rain events after next weekend through the end of Feb. Sorry dude. Expand if this pattern lives up to its billing..it should be snow or no...otherwise the pattern never really changed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 On 1/19/2019 at 6:22 PM, Ji said: if this pattern lives up to its billing..it should be snow or no...otherwise the pattern never really changed Expand There's no such thing as a long term snow or no pattern in this region. The only way that can happen is a long duration -10 temp regime. The only way that is possible is an extreme stable block and you know what that means.... drier than Phoenix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 On 1/19/2019 at 5:01 PM, Bob Chill said: A significant change is coming no matter what. Of course if it doesnt immediately flipping to cold/snow the acknowledgement of a pattern change will be subjective.... lol. Model skill decreases greatly on the front side of changes and the upcoming period through the end of the month will be no different. Not sure about your area but the mid atlantic generally doesnt do well on the front side of changes towards a colder and blockier regime. The longer it lasts the chances for winter precip keep going up. Will we flip to a classic big snow pattern before Feb? You can never be sure until it's happening. I'm forecasting and steep increase in lack of patience and steep decrease in post quality and critical thinking. Expand Everyone knows this I know, but this forum needs more “Chills” n “PSU’s”. Great stuff here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 The end is near, I think. This type of pattern at this time of year rolled forward to February when LR models are starting to show a western Canada/GOA trough is a blast +EPO. 10mb is cooling to, which has a +0 day-best correlation with 500mb. This has been a trend the last few Winter's, colder than usual 10mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 On 1/19/2019 at 6:22 PM, Ji said: if this pattern lives up to its billing..it should be snow or no...otherwise the pattern never really changed Expand Could just be that models are better but have a long way to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 I can't be the only one lurking until someone with the Euro precip panels chimes in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 On 1/19/2019 at 6:55 PM, eurojosh said: I can't be the only one lurking until someone with the Euro precip panels chimes in? Expand Euro ends with a miller b that crushes nyc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 On 1/19/2019 at 6:55 PM, eurojosh said: I can't be the only one lurking until someone with the Euro precip panels chimes in? Expand Congrats NYC. It's a jacked up evolution with a weird miller b'ish transfer with a negative trough. Slp in the atlantic moves SE-NW. Basically no chance the euro just nailed that evolution a week out. To me it looks like a half decent overrunning setup even though verbatim there is no love for our area this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 On 1/19/2019 at 6:22 PM, Ji said: if this pattern lives up to its billing..it should be snow or no...otherwise the pattern never really changed Expand You certainly didn’t change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Better model agreement in the medium and long range then I've seen over the past few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 On 1/19/2019 at 6:59 PM, Bob Chill said: Congrats NYC. It's a jacked up evolution with a weird miller b'ish transfer with a negative trough. Slp in the atlantic moves SE-NW. Basically no chance the euro just nailed that evolution a week out. To me it looks like a half decent overrunning setup even though verbatim there is no love for our area this run. Expand Both GFS, fv3 and GGEM have coastals somewhere on the east coast during the same time period. Definitely something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 12z Euro is an 1888 redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 On 1/19/2019 at 7:16 PM, JakkelWx said: 12z Euro is an 1888 redux. Expand I would prefer 1899 redux, fun for the whole family. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Split the difference between the euro and fv3 and we get shellacked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 On 1/19/2019 at 7:28 PM, paulythegun said: Euro Expand Lol man that's a classic Miller b screw job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 On 1/19/2019 at 7:30 PM, Bob Chill said: Split the difference between the euro and fv3 and we get shellacked Expand Taken literally, it's snowing in Florida while it's raining in northern Connecticut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 On 1/19/2019 at 7:33 PM, Fozz said: Taken literally, it's snowing in Florida while it's raining in northern Connecticut. Expand The crazy thing is it fits the longwave pattern. Ops and ens pretty much agree on a relatively narrow full latitude trough/ridge configuration. I personally don't like that setup because it creates narrow W-E wiggle room. Quite the clash of airmasses embedded in that setup with true acrtic air bumping right into warm subtropical air. Who wins (if anyone) surely won't be figured out in the med/long range. There are some general similarities with the beach blizzard bomb. Not saying I think it's a coast jackpot again. Just that a very strong storm is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 On 1/19/2019 at 7:43 PM, Bob Chill said: The crazy thing is it fits the longwave pattern. Ops and ens pretty much agree on a relatively narrow full latitude trough/ridge configuration. I personally don't like that setup because it creates narrow W-E wiggle room. Quite the clash of airmasses embedded in that setup with true acrtic air bumping right into warm subtropical air. Who wins (if anyone) surely won't be figured out in the med/long range. There are some general similarities with the beach blizzard bomb. Not saying I think it's a coast jackpot again. Just that a very strong storm is possible. Expand What’s the spread on the ens for next weekends potential coastal? Is there agreement of at least a coastal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 On 1/19/2019 at 7:43 PM, Bob Chill said: The crazy thing is it fits the longwave pattern. Ops and ens pretty much agree on a relatively narrow full latitude trough/ridge configuration. I personally don't like that setup because it creates narrow W-E wiggle room. Quite the clash of airmasses embedded in that setup with true acrtic air bumping right into warm subtropical air. Who wins (if anyone) surely won't be figured out in the med/long range. There are some general similarities with the beach blizzard bomb. Not saying I think it's a coast jackpot again. Just that a very strong storm is possible. Expand Is it also the kind of setup that would favor an Ash Wednesday 1962 type of storm if it took the right track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 On 1/19/2019 at 7:46 PM, MD Snow said: What’s the spread on the ens for next weekends potential coastal? Not a lot of agreement? Expand Eps has a lot of spread with timing/placement but clearly favors too far east. Not much support if any for the euro ops idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 On 1/19/2019 at 7:48 PM, Fozz said: Is it also the kind of setup that would favor an Ash Wednesday 1962 type of storm if it took the right track? Expand I'd have to look at the charts for that storm. Not sure the setup would generate an historic storm. If the streams were to phase it would be pretty far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorm5921 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 On 1/19/2019 at 7:48 PM, Bob Chill said: Eps has a lot of spread with timing/placement but clearly favors too far east. Not much support if any for the euro ops idea. Expand Yeah. Not much to get excited about per the EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 On 1/19/2019 at 8:01 PM, Snowstorm5921 said: Yeah. Not much to get excited about per the EPS Expand Lol. Eps looks very good. Far better than anything we've seen this winter. Even colder than 0z from next weekend through the end of the run. Very nice trough axis in the east, -epo, +pna, and -ao/nao. Not sure what EPS you're looking at but if you don't think it looks good then you should consider a new hobby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 On 1/19/2019 at 8:14 PM, Bob Chill said: Lol. Eps looks very good. Far better than anything we've seen this winter. Even colder than 0z from next weekend through the end of the run. Very nice trough axis in the east, -epo, +pna, and -ao/nao. Not sure what EPS you're looking at but if you don't think it looks good then you should consider a new hobby. Expand Setting up your own bowling pins Bob? You should really take it easy on 5921. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 On 1/19/2019 at 8:14 PM, Bob Chill said: Lol. Eps looks very good. Far better than anything we've seen this winter. Even colder than 0z from next weekend through the end of the run. Very nice trough axis in the east, -epo, +pna, and -ao/nao. Not sure what EPS you're looking at but if you don't think it looks good then you should consider a new hobby. Expand I love the looks of it and I like hour 288. There is potential , thats all you really want to see. Good run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Cold is here by Saturday and continues through the end of the run. Here's the 5 day mean 850s and 500mb charts for the long range. Nothing to get excited about. Looks terrible if you can't read charts or are wishing for early spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 History lesson ladies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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