NorthArlington101 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 This looks like a great chance for everyone to score. While I'm obviously happy with this run, it's not hard to see where the run could've gone slightly differently and you have a real long mauling from North Carolina up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 4:30 PM, psuhoffman said: lol thanks...but check this out. The GFS just misses the boat here...the NS and SS vorts don't phase and instead the NS acts as a kicker...but look what could have been...and the flow on top is not that suppressive this can definitely be a monster that runs the coast if there is just a little bit more coordination here. Somewhere between the GFS and the GGEM is a monster snowstorm for us. Either way this look on the GFS would almost certainly correct more amplified and west. I am more worried about rain then OTS att. Expand I believe the 00z EURO was the "monster snowstorm". I believe we got a phase just a tad too early and it ran the i95 corridor... a few hours later for the phase and we all enjoy lots of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 4:24 PM, stormtracker said: It's going to get better. I think it's a pretty decent bet that we get this follow up wave now. Expand agree, gfs seems to be up to its old habit of stringing out energy along the east coast. The flow is not very suppressive, no reason this doesn't amplify a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 4:30 PM, psuhoffman said: lol thanks...but check this out. The GFS just misses the boat here...the NS and SS vorts don't phase and instead the NS acts as a kicker...but look what could have been...and the flow on top is not that suppressive this can definitely be a monster that runs the coast if there is just a little bit more coordination here. Somewhere between the GFS and the GGEM is a monster snowstorm for us. Either way this look on the GFS would almost certainly correct more amplified and west. I am more worried about rain then OTS att. Expand You're talking about that wave coming down out of Utah and the 4-corners region, correct? I was looking at that too, it's close there to phasing with the SS near the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 FV3 is has the wave but the boundary hasn't cleared and it's strung out. Still a good sign that the idea isn't a phantom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 4:30 PM, psuhoffman said: lol thanks...but check this out. The GFS just misses the boat here...the NS and SS vorts don't phase and instead the NS acts as a kicker...but look what could have been...and the flow on top is not that suppressive this can definitely be a monster that runs the coast if there is just a little bit more coordination here. Somewhere between the GFS and the GGEM is a monster snowstorm for us. Either way this look on the GFS would almost certainly correct more amplified and west. I am more worried about rain than OTS att. Expand Yeah, look at all this hanging moisture. It could be a bomb. (all the way up to Alaska) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 12z UKIE at 144 has a 999mb SLP in AL... though I am not sure that is good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Ole uncle Ukie looks really good for the follow up, 999 low in Alabama. Edit: Ninja'ed by @yoda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 4:44 PM, DCTeacherman said: Ole uncle Ukie looks really good for the follow up, 999 low in Alabama. Expand where does it go once it leaves Alabama? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 4:44 PM, DCTeacherman said: Ole uncle Ukie looks really good for the follow up, 999 low in Alabama. Expand good if it goes to ORF/OBX I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 4:45 PM, ryanconway63 said: where does it go once it leaves Alabama? Expand UKMET only goes out to 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 4:46 PM, yoda said: UKMET only goes out to 144 Expand Based on the pressure, looks like the boundary is still NW of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Like to see the Low offshore of Hatteras and Bomb Out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 4:48 PM, ryanconway63 said: Like to see the Low offshore of Hatteras and Bomb Out Expand Yeah I suppose this may be a little too amped for us but at least it has the idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 4:31 PM, Bob Chill said: It's about as good a setup as you can get for a followup. Reminds me of some of the events in JFM 14&15. If anyone remembers the specifics of those... we really didn't have a clear picture on what's going to happen until 72 hours out or so and even then it was fraught with wobbles and such. We were in and out multiple times in the med range. I don't see this being any different and I have no confidence one way or the other right now. Expand On 1/18/2019 at 4:33 PM, psuhoffman said: agree, gfs seems to be up to its old habit of stringing out energy along the east coast. The flow is not very suppressive, no reason this doesn't amplify a bit more. Expand I really like this one tbh. There's just so much potential. I won't be discouraged by the run to run wobbles for now. If we're still super amp'd or out to sea by say Monday/Tuesday then it might be time to bail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 4:30 PM, BornAgain13 said: From the SE Forum Here... but just to show u the difference in a few miles if the GFS is taken verbatim... I'm where the blue dot is. Expand Couldn't you have made it a little bigger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 4:47 PM, WxUSAF said: Based on the pressure, looks like the boundary is still NW of us. Expand Agreed, but not super amped like the CMC rainer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Looks like many winter storm chances late January into early Feb. We should get several hits with any luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 4:52 PM, Wonderdog said: Couldn't you have made it a little bigger? Expand Sure... Good Question! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 this looks manageable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 lol- check this out. Full continental block and mid latitude wave train running nearly due W-E. Heh. I can extrapolate multiple big hits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 4:52 PM, Wonderdog said: Couldn't you have made it a little bigger? Expand I wish it was a striped red ball, because I felt like I was finding Waldo!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 If we can get to next weekend and everything stays on schedule we could be looking at some fantasy storms becoming mid range threats! I feel like it might be happening! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 5:07 PM, SnowGolfBro said: If we can get to next weekend and everything stays on schedule we could be looking at some fantasy storms becoming mid range threats! I feel like it might be happening! Expand Phase changes with the NAO like what's progged happen pretty violently and are rarely modeled or forecast well. We're going to see all kinds of different versions until the block is established (assuming it does... looks good now). Once the blocking is in place then mid/long range will be more trustworthy. We're really close to victory with the AO/NAO. Ens haven't slipped back at all and ops are spitting out big blocking looks left and right but it's right on the cusp of too far out in time to discuss details. Another 4-5 days and it should be game on in the tracking dept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Through day 6 on the GEFS, majority have the front through the region. Edit: About half actually. Got a bit ahead of myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 5:11 PM, Bob Chill said: Phase changes with the NAO like what's progged happen pretty violently and are rarely modeled or forecast well. We're going to see all kinds of different versions until the block is established (assuming it does... looks good now). Once the blocking is in place then mid/long range will be more trustworthy. We're really close to victory with the AO/NAO. Ens haven't slipped back at all and ops are spitting out big blocking looks left and right but it's right on the cusp of too far out in time to discuss details. Another 4-5 days and it should be game on in the tracking dept. Expand It would be really something to have -NAO.. it seems like it's been so long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 5:11 PM, Bob Chill said: Phase changes with the NAO like what's progged happen pretty violently and are rarely modeled or forecast well. We're going to see all kinds of different versions until the block is established (assuming it does... looks good now). Once the blocking is in place then mid/long range will be more trustworthy. We're really close to victory with the AO/NAO. Ens haven't slipped back at all and ops are spitting out big blocking looks left and right but it's right on the cusp of too far out in time to discuss details. Another 4-5 days and it should be game on in the tracking dept. Expand It’s not like we haven’t had stuff to track over the last week. We haven’t really had a break even though this weekend didn’t pan out. We’re already tracking another threat for mid next week already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 5:15 PM, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: It would be really something to have -NAO.. it seems like it's been so long. Expand No kidding...it's been so dang elusive the last 8-9 years!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 On 1/18/2019 at 5:17 PM, Maestrobjwa said: No kidding...it's been so dang elusive the last 8-9 years!!! Expand There's some sort of multi-decadal cycle with the NAO. I don't have a theory or any knowledge as to why but if you look at the historical NAO data, phases happen in bunches. 10 years ago and goose could fart flying over the Davis Straight and a block would form. Then the big blue ball took over. It's possible that this year marks the beginning of another cycle of -NAO winters. Not every winter but more often than not. We'll see how it goes over the next 3-5 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 18, 2019 Share Posted January 18, 2019 Interesting look at the 12z UKIE at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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