Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 On 1/15/2019 at 3:58 AM, ORH_wxman said: Low end warning amounts for some on the GFS? Pretty impressive. Expand Thumpity thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 CMC ramped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 GFS snowfall...widespread 2-5" for all of New England it seems at 10:1 ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Not bad really when you think about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 00z EURO looked further southeast with the surface low, like the NAM was, NAM was a little too far southeast for the 6z run, but showed a powerful storm developing with a strong CCB developing offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 NAM looks most intense and coldest solution for the system, the GEFS mean and EURO mean look colder and stronger with the surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 On 1/15/2019 at 12:25 AM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: How does it look for the coastal plain of Cape Cod? Expand The east slope of the dunes should clean up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 6Z euro is bringing the low a bit further south which is an improvement from 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 On 1/15/2019 at 12:19 PM, weathafella said: 6Z euro is bringing the low a bit further south which is an improvement from 0z. Expand 2-4”? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Hopefully we get some clarity on this today and tonight. This could easily be a D-1” deal or maybe if it stays a bit more organized someone pulls 2-3”... not out of the question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 On 1/15/2019 at 12:31 PM, Damage In Tolland said: 2-4”? Expand reasonable. GC and NW CT lollies higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Gyx is saying weak phasing and several inches up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 On 1/15/2019 at 10:35 AM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: NAM looks most intense and coldest solution for the system, the GEFS mean and EURO mean look colder and stronger with the surface low. Expand Nam is crap and way OTS south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Beware the thermals per BOX or ride the weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 On 1/15/2019 at 1:06 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: Beware the thermals per BOX or ride the weenies Expand Gilfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 On 1/15/2019 at 1:06 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: Beware the thermals per BOX or ride the weenies Expand Thermals do not look like an issue away from the coast. Even E coast of MA should be mostly fine north of about GHG for most of it....unless it trends back to more southerly flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 On 1/15/2019 at 1:15 PM, mahk_webstah said: Gilfs? Expand 80/20 milf/gilf compromise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 The BL is iffy ORH and east as we get into Friday afternoon but I think the majority of the precip falls before that's a problem. I could see Friday afternoon being drizzle and quick road melt but I don't think rain is going to cut into most people's snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 On 1/15/2019 at 1:17 PM, ORH_wxman said: Thermals do not look like an issue away from the coast. Even E coast of MA should be mostly fine north of about GHG for most of it....unless it trends back to more southerly flow. Expand Even on a depiction like 6z gfs with that track , Will? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2019 Author Share Posted January 15, 2019 On 1/15/2019 at 1:18 PM, DomNH said: The BL is iffy ORH and east as we get into Friday afternoon but I think the majority of the precip falls before that's a problem. I could see Friday afternoon being drizzle and quick road melt but I don't think rain is going to cut into most people's snow. Expand Agreed with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 On 1/15/2019 at 1:19 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: Even on a depiction like 6z gfs with that track , Will? Expand Yeah GFS looks like it tracks is just south of most peeps in MA anyway...over SE MA. GFS will also always overdue the BL warming. I'd feel fine 128 and outside...and even into BOS will prob at least get a nice little burst early morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Pretty sad to go 1/2 way thru MET winter and just see your 1st single digits low. Hit 9F finally this AM. On to this pesky fella. Antecedent cold looks solid. I'm hoping we don't see the primary tend any stronger as it will lead to warming in the BL along the coastal plain. Sort of hoping for a minor overrunning event here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 3-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 On 1/15/2019 at 2:31 PM, mahk_webstah said: 3-5 Expand .30" qpf, Low 30's, Good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 On 1/15/2019 at 2:34 PM, dryslot said: .30" qpf, Low 30's, Good luck Expand Agreed, just not enough moisture to support much over 3". Maybe a lucky locale will pull 4 if they see good rates and ratios. I have a feeling this is gonna be one of those "radar looks like crap" storms, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 On 1/15/2019 at 2:38 PM, tunafish said: Agreed, just not enough moisture to support much over 3". Maybe a lucky locale will pull 4 if they see good rates and ratios. I have a feeling this is gonna be one of those "radar looks like crap" storms, too. Expand Yea, Right now, The ceiling is in that range, Of course if it starts to come in more robust, And we bump up qpf, Then i could see maybe even to 5" but that's a reach at the moment, Kind of keeping one eye on this but won't deny looking past it at the bigger picture.................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 NAM is weak on moisture but quite cold though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 NAM has consistently been unimpressed with this one for 3-4 cycles...though it's still in clown range for that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Looks like dogshit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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