jaydreb Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 My bar is .5”. Anything more is gravy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 WWA posted for the n/w zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 from LWX morning discussion The low center will track up the Ohio Valley this afternoon and into the lower Great Lakes tonight. Increasing isentropic ascent may lead to some light snow over western areas during the midday hours, but the bulk of the precipitation will fall during the late afternoon and evening. There is still a bit of spread amongst model guidance in terms of onset time, and thus uncertainty on if the evening rush hour in the metro areas will be impacted. At the moment, higher confidence lies in the western suburbs, where surface temperatures will also be colder. Have therefore issued a Winter Weather Advisory for this area. Have also included portions of north central Maryland and the far eastern panhandle of West Virginia, where there is some guidance agreement on an area of 2 inch totals. Amounts generally around an inch or less will be found across much of the CWA in this modest QPF event. Higher totals will be found along the Allegheny Front from a combination of synoptic and upslope snow, so a Winter Weather Advisory is also in effect for this area. Future adjustments to the advisories may be needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
astarck Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 If this storm were two weeks earlier it would have 100 pages by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 12z NAM Shows snow breaking out at 0z tonight. Looks a little more juiced than 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 If the 12z guidance looks good across the board, I could see LWX nudging the advisory another tier of counties south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 12 minutes ago, LP08 said: 12z NAM Shows snow breaking out at 0z tonight. Looks a little more juiced than 06z. Still only are 0.5-1.5" for most. Should freshen everything up though for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I thought for sure the NAMs looked better given the duration of snow but it must be really light given the totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Sim radar looks pretty weak in all honesty. I still think if you score an inch with this one you have done well. Nice to have some fresh snow on top of the snow pack though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 12 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Sim radar looks pretty weak in all honesty. I still think if you score an inch with this one you have done well. Nice to have some fresh snow on top of the snow pack though. Yeah I think NWS forecast is perfect for this one...coating at best for I95 and metro. crew..temps should stay around 33-34. Best chance for 1” is just NW it’s pretty much just 1” at that. Minor nuisance event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 A snowflake on the roads at rush hour can mangle traffic, none the less an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: If the 12z guidance looks good across the board, I could see LWX nudging the advisory another tier of counties south. Winter Weather Advisory expanded South, includes DC and Baltimore down to PWC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Advisory expanded to I-95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 yay DC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 This thing doesn't start until 0z right? Why would that affect rush hour isn't it over by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 12 minutes ago, wxtrix said: the SWS says this: If you plan on commuting this evening, be aware of the potential for travel disruptions. Plan ahead by allowing for extra travel time, and consider using public transportation and telework options. an inch of snow on cold roads during rush hour can completely fork up traffic for hours. because I got caught in this: http://voices.washingtonpost.com/dr-gridlock/2011/01/rush_hour_storms_are_always_tr.html 6 minutes ago, smokeybandit said: A snowflake on the roads at rush hour can mangle traffic, none the less an inch Pretty much agree with both of your posts. Around here... just seeing snow falling causes 30 mile backups on all the major roadways lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1014 AM EST Thu Jan 17 2019 DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-504-506-508-VAZ052>054-180000- /O.EXA.KLWX.WW.Y.0006.190117T2300Z-190118T0900Z/ District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges- Anne Arundel-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Central and Southeast Howard-Southeast Harford- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- 1014 AM EST Thu Jan 17 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of around one inch expected. * WHERE...The District of Columbia, central and northern Maryland and northern Virginia. * WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Friday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions and sidewalks. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute after sunset as temperatures fall below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Jandurin said: This thing doesn't start until 0z right? Why would that affect rush hour isn't it over by then. i mean... rush hour doesn't just magically stop at 7pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Rush hour also isn't magically localized to downtown DC. They're expecting flakes in Frederick/Loudoun/etc. by 4-6 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, feloniousq said: Rush hour also isn't magically localized to downtown DC. They're expecting flakes in Frederick/Loudoun/etc. by 4-6 PM. oh that's true I was reacting to the posts about DC proper, but I guess Frederick folks should pay attention to timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Won't temps be too warm with all those cars out? Asking for a friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, Jandurin said: oh that's true I was reacting to the posts about DC proper, but I guess Frederick folks should pay attention to timing. its not always about DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 40 minutes ago, wxtrix said: the SWS says this: If you plan on commuting this evening, be aware of the potential for travel disruptions. Plan ahead by allowing for extra travel time, and consider using public transportation and telework options. an inch of snow on cold roads during rush hour can completely fork up traffic for hours. because I got caught in this: http://voices.washingtonpost.com/dr-gridlock/2011/01/rush_hour_storms_are_always_tr.html Preach. I was caught in a much more localized version of the Feb 12, 2008 debacle, commuting from Fort Belvoir to my home a mere six miles away -- a normally 20-min trip that turned into a four-hour slog that afternoon. It was only a light snow dropping 1-2" (that I recall), but which created a thin scrum of roadway ice, with cars spinning/bailing out in every direction every few minutes, causing most roads on or around post to randomly close down every 10-20 min on a temp/perm basis. It was a continual battle of wits, to constantly re-think and re-route the escape strategy from Belvoir that afternoon. Hands-down worst commute ever...and reason enough to consider leaving earlier today if indeed flakes arrive earlier, and especially now that we're under a WWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 13 hours ago, BristowWx said: Well this is an unexpected miracle. EDIT: my guess is that potential lead won’t last long. Feb looks solid for at least another warning event. Dec gave me confidence in my prediction. You're eliminated from winning the contest unless somehow no other airport but BWI gets accumulating snow the rest of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: You're eliminated from winning the contest unless somehow no other airport but BWI gets accumulating snow the rest of the winter. thanks for the update. Now I am wishing just for that. EDIT: no I am not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 shouldn't take too long for flakes to fly given the dews and we currently have an easterly wind. nam 3k has some better lift moving through right before rush hour, so that could be our start time. edit: probably close to the end of rush hour, but sometimes these systems move in a little quicker than advertised. kind of a weak sauce event, but maybe we can get enough steady/moderate to coat things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 8 minutes ago, Jandurin said: Camp David jack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdsofprey02 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Camp David jack That map added Anne Arundel county, northern PG county, and southern Harford County from < 1" to the 1" - 2" zones. Realistically speaking, I'm interested in the impact. The timing will be everything. Flakes fly during commute and its havoc despite being lite. If it doesn't start til 0z, then we're probably in the clear and most will barely notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 We doing obs in here for today's thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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