MountainGeek Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 12 minutes ago, paxpatriot said: Would love someone to explain exactly what we want from this storm in regards to Sunday. I keep seeing conflicting statements on it. See Cranky for a more detailed discussion: http://www.stormhamster.com/entry2/e011419.htm "Where the 1/17 system tracks the 1/20 will follow but perhaps at a slightly more southern course along the way. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 12Z 3K gets snow into my area mid afternoon on Thursday. Very light stuff though. I think an inch through the area would be realistic. I wish the 3K went past 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: 12Z 3K gets snow into my area mid afternoon on Thursday. Very light stuff though. I think an inch through the area would be realistic. I wish the 3K went past 60. Extrapolate my man..... 12k does look good for you guys. Will be interesting to see if the GFS "caves" to the meso. If it does, I'd keep an eye open for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 11 minutes ago, MountainGeek said: See Cranky for a more detailed discussion: http://www.stormhamster.com/entry2/e011419.htm "Where the 1/17 system tracks the 1/20 will follow but perhaps at a slightly more southern course along the way. " He basically says it won't. I agree, and so do most models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 hours ago, DCTeacherman said: 6z Euro is 1-2 from Montgomery county north and 2-4 along the M/D line. Your snow algorithm must be more liberal. I see a coating down to DC, about an inch extreme northern Montgomery County, and 2" right along the PA line up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 12z icon looks a little better with stronger heights out in front of the low as it passes through on Thursday. Keeps cold in place a little longer. Not a huge net gain on the snowfall totals but an improvement none the less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Your snow algorithm must be more liberal. I see a coating down to DC, about an inch extreme northern Montgomery County, and 2" right along the PA line up here. Yeah, I need to stop using the stormvista snow algorithm, seems like it's some trash. I really like stormvista in general though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 pretty decent odds for at least an inch in places Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 12z ICON has 0.5-1" for north of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Nam at 66 lol.....we forgot last week already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 minute ago, snjókoma said: 12z ICON has 0.5-1" for north of DC. Awesome...snow on snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 22 minutes ago, Amped said: He basically says it won't. I agree, and so do most models. Yes. Our problem for the weekend storm is the relaxing/weakening PNA ridge over the inter-mountain west. In turn, the eastern trof doesn't dig, which at our latitude allows the storm to go over or just west of us. The Thursday PM storm will have no effect on the weekend storm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 GFS has light snow through the entire area Thursday afternoon. Basically from route 64 north. Nice little burst south of town hour 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 14 minutes ago, Ji said: Nam at 66 lol.....we forgot last week already? In NAM we trust. Whatcha got!? eta: said nobody ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, Scraff said: In NAM we trust. Whatcha got!? If you look at its last 3 runs in a row it actually hasn’t jumped around a lot. Additionally, when the setup isn’t a complex low pressure evolution it does ok (imo) at mid 60hrs range. Albeit not as good as the globals. I still think it looks good and might be picking up on a colder trend with .5-1.5” for dc metro. I need my snow fix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 22 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: If you look at its last 3 runs in a row it actually hasn’t jumped around a lot. Additionally, when the setup isn’t a complex low pressure evolution it does ok (imo) at mid 60hrs range. Albeit not as good as the globals. I still think it looks good and might be picking up on a colder trend with .5-1.5” for dc metro. I need my snow fix Works for me! Just enough for a new whitening of all that dirty snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 12z cmc gets snow almost down to the nc/va border. Positive trends at 12z for keeping most of the forum snow. If we can just get a solid precip shield to move through I think you could get a 2-4” surprise snowfall region wide with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 15 minutes ago, MD Snow said: 12z cmc gets snow almost down to the nc/va border. Positive trends at 12z for keeping most of the forum snow. If we can just get a solid precip shield to move through I think you could get a 2-4” surprise snowfall region wide with this one. Not sure it’s wet enough for .4, or even .3” qpf. I think .2 is probably max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 All I’ll say is this. Every storm for the last 8 months seems to juice up as we close in on game time. So we have that going for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 FV3 looks pretty good man edit: I only care about my backyard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Don't overlook the rule of thumb with slp passing to our NW. It won't be pretty dendrites and will create challenges with surface temps. I do think some will see accum snow out of the deal. My yard will probably be too far south/warm for much accums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 26 minutes ago, T. August said: Not sure it’s wet enough for .4, or even .3” qpf. I think .2 is probably max. Agreed as it stands now. However, a slightly stronger system and areas north and west could pile up and get that 3-4” easy with central Maryland in a solid 1-3”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Don't overlook the rule of thumb with slp passing to our NW. It won't be pretty dendrites and will create challenges with surface temps. I do think some will see accum snow out of the deal. My yard will probably be too far south/warm for much accums So would you say the NAM’s and CMC are wrong with areas south of DC getting 2”? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Hopefully psu-mappy zone does well. Their totals were downright disgusting this last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 what does the UKMET have for this ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Half inch is my bar...gets me to 15" on the year and only halfway home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 RGEM ensemble thinks there's a reasonably good chance many of us see at least 2.5 mm precip as snow. That's about 1" of snow at 10:1 ratios. Most ensemble members say that unless you're living in the mountains, you're probably not going to see 5 mm. ETA: This is only through 72 hours though, so there might be a little more to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 38 minutes ago, MD Snow said: So would you say the NAM’s and CMC are wrong with areas south of DC getting 2”? Yes. .20 qpf may fall as snow but that /= 2" of snow with very marginal temps. Weak low tracks to the NW do don't have good lift/snowgrowth. It's all warm air advection/overrunning/isentropic upglide. Flakes will be clumpy and mangled. Not always but it's a good rule of thumb with tracks like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Here is EURO Kuchera, for those who care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 17 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Here is EURO Kuchera, for those who care. Snow TV, but we might have to break out some old school rabbit ear antennas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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