Paleocene Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 84 hour GFS panel has us a bit too warm for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 18z gfs very slightly colder than 12z with about the same result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Yea 540 line little more sag to it. About the same result. We trend?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 It’s becoming clear that we probably can’t “win” with both this small event and the weekend storm as this storm sets the boundary position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 This event should be good for us up north. Likely to warm south of 70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 6 minutes ago, Beachin said: This event should be good for us up north. Likely to warm south of 70 Wrong. I70 isnt some magical dividing line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DSF Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 40 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: It’s becoming clear that we probably can’t “win” with both this small event and the weekend storm as this storm sets the boundary position. Can you explain that a little more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 1 hour ago, clskinsfan said: 4 inches from the Thursday/Friday wave? You are in trouble. Weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 30 minutes ago, DSF said: Can you explain that a little more? storm 1 boundary/path will "sets the table" for where storm 2 has cold air to work with. You want #1 further south, so that you have more wiggle room when #2 gets here or you stand to taint/changeover to sleet/freezing rain, or plain rain when you lose the cold in the lower/mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 14, 2019 Share Posted January 14, 2019 Consensus seems to be 1 to 3 inches for the northern and western tiers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 1 hour ago, clskinsfan said: Wrong. I70 isnt some magical dividing line. How am I wrong when majority of guidance says no snow south of frederick or baltimore lol. This is definitely a north event unlike the past Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 I'd take the 06z NAM... 2 to 4 inches across N VA/DC/MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 hours ago, yoda said: I'd take the 06z NAM... 2 to 4 inches across N VA/DC/MD EZF is the newest snowtown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 3 hours ago, yoda said: I'd take the 06z NAM... 2 to 4 inches across N VA/DC/MD LOL NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 6z Euro is 1-2 from Montgomery county north and 2-4 along the M/D line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 4 hours ago, yoda said: I'd take the 06z NAM... 2 to 4 inches across N VA/DC/MD Are we in NAM range already? Seems too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 What does the GEFS/EPS look like for this event? Any higher end solutions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, MD Snow said: What does the GEFS/EPS look like for this event? Any higher end solutions? 6Z EPS mean improved from 0Z, mean snowfall is 1-2 for DC and 2-4 for the most of Maryland, I can't see the individual members though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: 6Z EPS mean improved from 0Z, mean snowfall is 1-2 for DC and 2-4 for the most of Maryland, I can't see the individual members though. That’s good. Could be a decent little event. HP is not in an ideal position but it’s also not terrible. Majority of precip comes at night. Amazing how if this event was coming last week at this point, this thread would be like 30 pages... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 from LWX and their morning AFD Low pressure will approach from the west on Thursday and pass to the northwest Thursday night. Light precipitation will accompany this system, focused on the afternoon and evening hours. Cold air from the transient high will remain in place, so it appears at least some of the precipitation will be wintry in nature. As the low nears, warmer air will advect in aloft, so snow will become less likely, with sleet, freezing rain, and rain all possible depending on thermal profiles. Surface temperatures are most likely to remain above freezing south/east of I-95. Regardless of what type of precipitation falls, amounts would most likely fall into the winter weather advisory category given the light nature of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Ill take my 2-4" up here and be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 06z NAM/Euro look okay. Would be snow-on-snow for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 12z Nam coming in much flatter and south. Congrats EZF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 2 minutes ago, LP08 said: 12z Nam coming in much flatter and south. Congrats EZF? 6z was congrats ezf... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 3 minutes ago, LP08 said: 12z Nam coming in much flatter and south. Congrats EZF? I think we want a further south track to set up for the weekend storm. Right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 Just now, lpaschall said: I think we want a further south track to set up for the weekend storm. Right? I think we want it stronger to help compress the flow some. It's weaker than 6z for sure but I'm not smart enough to know exactly how one effects the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 12z keeps everyone snow down to just south of EZF. Looks like a general 1-3 with higher totals south of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 7 minutes ago, LP08 said: I think we want it stronger to help compress the flow some. It's weaker than 6z for sure but I'm not smart enough to know exactly how one effects the other. Would love someone to explain exactly what we want from this storm in regards to Sunday. I keep seeing conflicting statements on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 15, 2019 Share Posted January 15, 2019 9 minutes ago, LP08 said: I think we want it stronger to help compress the flow some. It's weaker than 6z for sure but I'm not smart enough to know exactly how one effects the other. pasnownut explains it well 15 hours ago, pasnownut said: storm 1 boundary/path will "sets the table" for where storm 2 has cold air to work with. You want #1 further south, so that you have more wiggle room when #2 gets here or you stand to taint/changeover to sleet/freezing rain, or plain rain when you lose the cold in the lower/mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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