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January 2019 Discussion II


Typhoon Tip

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I just went out and measure the depth in the same area as I did last night.  Looks like we lost about 4 inches from 21 to 17".  Driveway is in great shape.  I had gotten enough off of that on Tuesday night that it is mostly down to pavement now!

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2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

 

I was totally joking. It was an extension of my posts earlier this week about the bad look is going to fade and be replaced with a much improved look. Guessed right I suppose...

Weeklies are already R rated so Monday's weeklies will need to be watched in the back of a grimey movie theater while wearing a london fog overcoat with only a pair of panties on. Panties are optional though.

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4 minutes ago, Albert A Clipper said:

only 3-4 weeks away too! That's like tomorrow in dog years.

The pattern looks good before that. It's just the weeklies develop a real -NAO for week 3-4...in the Davis strait. I'm skeptical of the NAO though until I see it on ensembles inside of D10. We've been hoodwinked before. 

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2 hours ago, wxmanmitch said:

Not bad at all actually. This pack really is absorbing it like a sponge and I don't think I lost more than 6". Last year's thaw on 1/12 was far worse in terms of flooding around here for whatever reason. We had about a 2 foot pack prior to that event, but it nearly got wiped out unlike this event where it's held up comparatively well.

Pretty much over to all snow now, albeit wet. 

That's what I saw up here.  Honestly I can barely tell a difference looking at my yard except it's not fresh looking.  

Temps held in the 30s and the snowpack absorbed it.  At most we lost 6" and still have 18" left.  It looks more like it just settled a bit.

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Not to mock you Will but I'm so f sick of hearin about the g-damn NAO ...

I bet you 900 of 1000 of the snow we've had in the last 20 years did not have a -NAO when that occurred..

Which that's probably bullshit but just sayn'

Actually.... that might be interesting study.  Huh... Just like what was the NAO in every even that result >= 1"

tedious tho

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not to mock you Will but I'm so f sick of hearin about the g-damn NAO ...

I bet you 900 of 1000 of the snow we've had in the last 20 years did not have a -NAO when that occurred..

Which that's probably bullshit but just sayn'

Actually.... that might be interesting study.  Huh... Just like what was the NAO in every even that result >= 1"

tedious tho

I don't think we had any blocking in 2015. Maybe I'm wrong.

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31 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not to mock you Will but I'm so f sick of hearin about the g-damn NAO ...

I bet you 900 of 1000 of the snow we've had in the last 20 years did not have a -NAO when that occurred..

Which that's probably bullshit but just sayn'

Actually.... that might be interesting study.  Huh... Just like what was the NAO in every even that result >= 1"

tedious tho

 

28 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I don't think we had any blocking in 2015. Maybe I'm wrong.

His point is lost on both of you.

Its not necessary to get nailed, as 2015 illustrated, but it provides more margin for error in the event that the balance of the hemispheric regime is less than stellar....as this season illustrates. We wouldn't have to worry about the timing of all of these SW's, which has been awful. The mother load of arctic air would not have been allowed evacuate in advance of the ongoing soaker. In 2015, the ridge out west was positioned perfectly for several weeks, this season it is less stout and displaced west....so we cut.

This season would be perceived entirely different right now had we an NAO...today is a perfect example. This season is a good counter to the "we don't need an NAO" rebellion.

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10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

So I ran through the 12z eps members like pickles runs through granny panties....so hold onto your undies. If you drew a line from DXR to BOS, 10% of the members give that line and points SE, away from the cape, warning level snows. The remaining 90% are a big FU.

I'm so sick of blogging about terds, and waisting bandwidth trying to polish them.

"Could be 3-4" of slop if everything breaks right"....ugh.

 

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5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

His point is lost on both of you.

Its not necessary to get nailed, as 2015 illustrated, but it provides more margin for error in the event that the balance of the hemispheric regime is less than stellar....as this season illustrates. We wouldn't have to worry about the timing of all of these SW's, which has been awful. The mother load of arctic air would not have been allowed evacuate in advance of the ongoing soaker.

This season would be perceived entirely different right now had we an NAO...today is a perfect example. This season is a good counter to the "we don't need an NAO" rebellion.

Yup. I had mentioned months ago without a big epo/pna, we would need help from the nao....otherwise we travel back in time to the 80s. 

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yup. I had mentioned months ago without a big epo/pna, we would need help from the nao....otherwise we travel back in time to the 80s. 

It can work, but has to break just right....like it did in 2015. This year, the ridge isn't as amplified and its placed more to the west....so without the NAO, we need the right timing, and we haven't gotten it.

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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The models were in fairly good agreement in the extended so a blend was used. High pres on Sat produces fair wx with temps a few degrees blw avg. Return flow off the water overnight however will limit lows. In this light waa off the water, there could be some black ice development, along with patchy fog, particularly on LI and cstl CT. Outside of the llvl moisture, a weak wave coming in from the midwest will act as a weak warm front late Sat ngt into Sun, producing chances for pcpn. The sys is progged to be moisture starved, so only low chcs per the model blend data have been included in the fcst. A weak cold front follows for Mon. This sys again has limited moisture to work with so low chcs in the fcst.

The next storm for Tue looks a bit more intense attm, with the associated sfc low progged to deepen extensively somewhere invof New England by Tue ngt as a monster upr low digs into the Great Lakes. All of the data suggests for now an inside track, with a snow to rain/ice scenario then back to shsn as the sys exits. The GEM and ECMWF are remarkably similar wrt track with the 12z runs. The GFS is a bit further e. Aft the midweek storm, arctic air flows in with temps well blw climo for the end of the week. &&

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