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January 2019 Discussion II


Typhoon Tip

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No snow mid week?

It has some...but not ideal...a couple inches on the front end of a "trying to form SWFE" but then it gets absorbed by the main trough and gives us that weird anafront look...rain then maybe ending as snow. It's pretty disjointed and ugly. It probably won't look like that at verification....but I'd like to see the front wave be more dominant because that would give us legit snow if it was.

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It has some...but not ideal...a couple inches on the front end of a "trying to form SWFE" but then it gets absorbed by the main trough and gives us that weird anafront look...rain then maybe ending as snow. It's pretty disjointed and ugly. It probably won't look like that at verification....but I'd like to see the front wave be more dominant because that would give us legit snow if it was.

Yes, I'd rather just see a SWFE because the anafront crap is a first ballot fraud five HOF inductee.

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This Euro run is really just the nearer termed manifestation of that big weird looking hyper anomalous vortex it tried to plunk down deep into the OV several days ago... 

It's probably all still just a reflection of numerical potential in the runs at this range anyway...  Anothe run or two for the details to start emerging but that period may just be a Lakes destiny.  

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36 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What are you talking about? Have you not seen the Gefs/nam/00z eps? We miss the old Pickles. Not the Pickles that is old and crotchety from banging grandmothers and seniors 

Half true lol...just not crotchety or seniors

If I sent you photos of two of the grandmothers you would not beleive it . 47 and 52 . No seniors 

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4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

In a moment that symbolizes the winter thus far, I just looked out my window to find my formerly pristine and bulletproof pack wiped out by heavy rain and 56/55 conditions. The wind blew over both my trash can and recycling bin, throwing the contents all over the backyard. 

In the warmth and pouring rain, which arrived just 3 days after the coldest high temp I've ever experienced, I waded through ankle deep standing water to pick up the garbage thrown into my backyard by another cutter, wondering what the hell happened.

You brought DC winters with you....we know who to blame for all this now.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

You brought DC winters with you....we know who to blame for all this now.

And they had a 12” storm. The winter NYC and BOS have had would be awul even by DC standerds. Having lived in the region for 4 years I actually saw my single greatest storm while there, 33” in PD2.

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Just now, weathafella said:

I expect my pack to be gone when I go home tonight.  Snoski ftw.

Getting decimated here...still have mostly full cove,r but holes are appearing so it won't last the next 3-4 hours. Will prob have like 30-40$ cover when it's done.

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so... looks like 2" of pack equivalence has ceded to the warm air despite some consideration for it's density and retention...  That may be case with snow piles/berms and protected valleys and wooded areas but open regions are down to dead grass and mud ... at last here in Shrewsbury. 

3" + 2" is 5" over a basin wide area with frozen ground must make for interesting hydro concerns 

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not to poke the hornets nest with a hope stick or nothin' but that is more committal to secondary compared to the prior couple of cycles... 

Yeah it is...but the key is not having that PV drop so sharply south like on the OP run....so that it sort of cedes the best mechanics back to the southwest and invites a storm to ride almost due north up the frontal boundary to our west. If we can moderate that southward dive a bit on future runs then this would probably provide a pretty good outcome for us.

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Dews are the biggest pack killer. A dry 60F gives you wetbulbing on the surface via evaporation and sublimation. Pump some 50-55F dews over it and it's pack cryin' for its mama.

54 F is cold water tap temperature I believe ... Put an ice-cube in the sink and run 54 F water over and see how long it lasts ...heh

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

54 F is cold water tap temperature I believe ... Put an ice-cube in the sink and run 54 F water over and see how long it lasts ...heh

Yup. I'm enjoying watching the before and after of my pack melt today. Hopefully I'll be able to see my driveway again.

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it is...but the key is not having that PV drop so sharply south like on the OP run....so that it sort of cedes the best mechanics back to the southwest and invites a storm to ride almost due north up the frontal boundary to our west. If we can moderate that southward dive a bit on future runs then this would probably provide a pretty good outcome for us.

pretty much concur ... yup.   That's what I've been also intimating the last couple of days ..I'm not liking the compression from the N exertion so much in this ... The EPS means seems to try and partially commit to a secondary/Milly Vanilly regardless ... gotta be pretty precise though.  eesh.   But ... notice also how far west the western ridge component of the full L/W is ?  This is proooobably about as far as that is going to go/stretch without the flow breaking ... but it's also achieving the 'stretched' look because the winds are so fast, too.  

so a lot to consider ... Simplifying for brevity the oper.. has some front side overrunning ...  I suggest the ANA that folks are seeing is really incarnate of the model being (for lack of better word...) confused physically what to do and is 'smearing' - I've seen that before in that time range with Miller Bs...   

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it is...but the key is not having that PV drop so sharply south like on the OP run....so that it sort of cedes the best mechanics back to the southwest and invites a storm to ride almost due north up the frontal boundary to our west. If we can moderate that southward dive a bit on future runs then this would probably provide a pretty good outcome for us.

I'd love to see that lobe more elongated W-E then N-S as currently shown.  As you've stated we need a stronger s/w to keep it from phasing with that lobe.  Agee that the EPS looks better then it dis 12-24hrs ago.

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1 minute ago, codfishsnowman said:

This is a bad ass cutter! I agree with everything the fella from DC in East Hartford said. If I had one wish it would be for a few days of dry mild weather to just get rid of some of this water

better get used to it ... the new climate paradigm is that is both theoretically and modeled to be rich in moisture 

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