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January 2019 Discussion II


Typhoon Tip

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2 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

My appologies, i phrased that wrong...currently, the PAC is more favorable. My thoughts are for my feelings on a SNE winter moving forward. CNE is still in the game and I feel better about NNE. For SNE, with all the analyzing of the MJO, and AO, and the PNA, and the NAO, and the EPO, SNE needs more than just one to be in a favorable state out of all of them in order to get an acceptable winter...

They honestly haven’t been bad. The Pacific overall has been good last few weeks. I’ll take a good Pacific over any other index. That looks to continue. It hasn’t been perfect and hence why some of these hug or cut just west,  but man it wouldn’t take much to change that. 

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3 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

Yes, the snow still counts. But when we all talk about grading winters, human emotion also plays a part in the final grade. I would be more content for the meat of the winter snows to occur in january/February than be centered around march/april

Yea, for personal grading, it matters...Kev is like you in that regard.

I don't blame you for being frustrated.

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16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

They honestly haven’t been bad. The Pacific overall has been good last few weeks. I’ll take a good Pacific over any other index. That looks to continue. It hasn’t been perfect and hence why some of these hug or cut just west,  but man it wouldn’t take much to change that. 

If you had laid the 12-1 to 1-24 H5 plot in front of me last fall and told me to extrapolate over an entire season, I would have called for like 45-55" in Boston.

I think that effectively communicates my thoughts on the pattern so far.

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Glad we don't live here...

GFSX MOS (MEX)
 KHIB   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   1/24/2019  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      FRI 25| SAT 26| SUN 27| MON 28| TUE 29| WED 30| THU 31|FRI CLIMO
 N/X -23  -4|-27   3|-25  -4|-20   8|-23 -14|-37  -7|-26   0|-20 -4 19
 TMP -20 -10|-21  -4|-22  -8|-14   0|-18 -19|-32 -13|-21  -4|-15      
 DPT -28 -21|-27 -16|-30 -22|-21 -12|-25 -30|-41 -25|-29 -17|-22      
 CLD  PC  PC| PC  OV| PC  PC| OV  OV| OV  PC| OV  PC| PC  PC| PC      
 WND  10   6|  3   8|  7   6|  6   6| 15  15| 16  19| 11   7|  6      
 P12   1   0|  1   0|  2   1| 12  25| 21  16| 18  15|  9   8| 15999999
 P24       1|      1|      3|     28|     32|     26|     19|      999
 Q12   0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   0|       |         
 Q24       0|      0|      0|      0|      0|      0|       |         
 T12   0   0|  0   0|  1   0|  0   0|  1   0|  0   1|  1   0|  0      
 T24        |  0    |  1    |  0    |  1    |  0    |  1    |  0      
 PZP   1   1|  0   1|  1   1|  0   1|  0   1|  0   0|  0   1|  1      
 PSN  98  99|100  99| 99  98|100  99| 98  98|100 100|100  97| 96      
 PRS   1   0|  0   0|  1   0|  0   1|  2   1|  0   0|  0   2|  3      
 TYP   S   S|  S   S|  S   S|  S   S|  S   S|  S   S|  S   S|  S      
 SNW       0|      0|      0|      1|      1|      1|       |         
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I guess this is probably an unpopular opinion here, but if it's not going to snow, I still want it to be cold. Besides actually enjoying the cold, it helps with the insects, and it prevents my apple tree from pulling a March 2012, starting to wake up, then die in April.

There's a pool of warm water around Indonesia. Is that affecting the MJO and its insistence on staying around 4/5?

 

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7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Sunday looking nice and snowy elsewhere 

Looks like a few snow showers north of NH border w maybe an inch in central New England 

monday is going thru shredder 

I beleive Wednesday will be a sloppy dusting that goes to a rainy fropa South of CNE , thou we pray for more 

i believe our legit theat will be when Polar vortex lifts out in ...wait for it ..10 days or so 

 

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2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Looks like a few snow showers north of NH border w maybe an inch in central New England 

monday is going thru shredder 

I beleive Wednesday will be a sloppy dusting that goes to a rainy fropa South of CNE , thou we pray for more 

i believe our legit theat will be when Polar vortex lifts out in ...wait for it ..10 days or so 

 

I think we can still score a few inches via SWFE..

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56 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

They honestly haven’t been bad. The Pacific overall has been good last few weeks. I’ll take a good Pacific over any other index. That looks to continue. It hasn’t been perfect and hence why some of these hug or cut just west,  but man it wouldn’t take much to change that. 

Some? All the storms that have been showing up have been cutting and hugging. Need some Miller B's

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3 hours ago, weathafella said:

Lol..caribou can’t hold a candle to Boston’s snowiest month.

Yup, sort of, as CAR's top month is nearly 5" behind 2/15 in the Hub.  They'd need 17"+ in the next 7 days to challenge.  Noteworthy about 07-08 is that Feb-Mar totaled 93"; would be remarkable if that happened.  And 2/15 was even more impressive Downeast - 73.4" at Machias (74" pack on 2/16, 20 feet asl is pretty impressive) and I think EPO got even more.

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11 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Looks like a few snow showers north of NH border w maybe an inch in central New England 

monday is going thru shredder 

I beleive Wednesday will be a sloppy dusting that goes to a rainy fropa South of CNE , thou we pray for more 

i believe our legit theat will be when Polar vortex lifts out in ...wait for it ..10 days or so 

 

What are you talking about? Have you not seen the Gefs/nam/00z eps? We miss the old Pickles. Not the Pickles that is old and crotchety from banging grandmothers and seniors 

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