#NoPoles Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 5 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: It might be silly to say SNE is done...but if someone put a gun to my head id have to say done...obviously i cant predict the future...could we go balls to the wall? Possibly...but, the Pac is unfriendly, there is no blocking, and the gradient winter we have been experiencing so far hasnt changed, even though we had a SSW event. If we get a -NAO im guessing it will establish itself around the same time it did last year...and by that point, im looking to head into spring... And I could be horribly wrong about everything... But going with the pattern and what has transpired, SNE is fighting an uphill battle... I mean, basically the SSW wasnt enough to get the job done? We would need a total "Beast" to reshuffle the deck...like maybe Day After Tomorrow, or Dawn Awakening, style Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 There is a psuedo -NAO block showing up in the 12z GFS out to hour 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 13 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: It might be silly to say SNE is done...but if someone put a gun to my head id have to say done...obviously i cant predict the future...could we go balls to the wall? Possibly...but, the Pac is unfriendly, there is no blocking, and the gradient winter we have been experiencing so far hasnt changed, even though we had a SSW event. If we get a -NAO im guessing it will establish itself around the same time it did last year...and by that point, im looking to head into spring... And I could be horribly wrong about everything... But going with the pattern and what has transpired, SNE is fighting an uphill battle... What is so bad about the PAC pattern? We have a huge ridge out in the EPO region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: What is so bad about the PAC pattern? We have a huge ridge out in the EPO region. Snowman19 is in a different universe lol, check out some his posts. on the last page he said: The Pacific has refused to cooperate since late November yes. We were spoiled and compensated for the NAO and AO not being favorable the last several winters. Just based on what I’m seeing now, like I said before, the Pacific is looking to become hostile again come week 2 of February. Question is, is it a week of being unfavorable or something more lengthy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: Snowman19 is in a different universe lol, check out some his posts. on the last page he said: The Pacific has refused to cooperate since late November yes. We were spoiled and compensated for the NAO and AO not being favorable the last several winters. Just based on what I’m seeing now, like I said before, the Pacific is looking to become hostile again come week 2 of February. Question is, is it a week of being unfavorable or something more lengthy? Yeah I don't really see it...2015 obviously had this amazing PNA ridge that was almost stagnant for a month in a perfect spot.,..but the EPO ridge out west right now is totally fine...look at how cold it is getting recently in Canada (and even here in New England aside from the cutter today)....we could really use some Atlantic blocking which we don't have. We get some transient ridging at times, but nothing solid. Is the PAC perfect? Nope...we'd love a PNA ridge centered over about Idaho....but it is definitely on the good side of the spectrum. It is pouring arctic cold all into Canada and the CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 1 hour ago, kdxken said: Bob has been dead on this winter. We follow... Dead on with the dead ratter of a winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 24, 2019 Author Share Posted January 24, 2019 I'm not sure what's driving that MJO change in the GEFs derivative but that's demonstratively strong through Phase 7 as of the overnight publication. Last week I commented that the MJO was prognosticating at the time ... quite similarly to the December era Phases 4-6 ... in terms of daily intervals and magnitude of the wave in the WH. This GEFs explosion in Phase 7 is also a behavior that took place as those December phase spaces matured. Now here we are in late Phase 5 and the present prognostication is showing the same surge. Also, similarly in that total behavior ...the ECMWF-based products are not nearly as robust - these latter model types also conflicted with the previous phase 7 and on and so on... Basically, it seems the total theme is repeating in the hemisphere. It is as though it is really locked as far as source and sink and these wave spaces appear to be migrating through at relative strength/biases to each models. I suspect this passage isn't going to make sense to some reader in here,... but I thought I mentioned that the MJO is definitely repeating a pattern across subsequent propagation events, just the same. ----- Until that intense and pervasive SPC fills and pulls out that is situated over southern /SE Canada, I don't believe the regions from the GL-OV-NE are favored for bigger more organized episodic cyclones. You can see the models agreeing with that philosophy too, where they show the compression alleviates beyond D8 or 9 and then suddenly there more in the way of wave spaces kinking the isohypsis near middle latitudes of the extended. That's the relaxation of the intense compression we suffer over the next week or so... allowing those waves to conserve their own mechanical presence in the flow circulation. This is a partial mitigation ...not an absolute one. It's possible to overcome compression ... 2015 February did so because the SPV got so intense it pressed the entire compressed part of the field S of the 40th parallel in the means for three weeks, inside of which we spun up coastals... That's rarer though. The other way are these "SWFE" deals ... if a high pressure out ahead is timed well and a system goes west, you triple point with snow to ice to cold drizzle then ends.... temp pops for 12 hours in lagged CAA then you bone chill D2 ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Clipper further south on the gfs with a few inches from the anafront Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I don't really see it...2015 obviously had this amazing PNA ridge that was almost stagnant for a month in a perfect spot.,..but the EPO ridge out west right now is totally fine...look at how cold it is getting recently in Canada (and even here in New England aside from the cutter today)....we could really use some Atlantic blocking which we don't have. We get some transient ridging at times, but nothing solid. Is the PAC perfect? Nope...we'd love a PNA ridge centered over about Idaho....but it is definitely on the good side of the spectrum. It is pouring arctic cold all into Canada and the CONUS. If you did a statistical analysis of winters that featured a similar EPO ridge and other teleconnections, you'd say that February should at least be average to even slightly above average snowfall wise right? Thats why I still have hope for this winter. Meanwhile there are torrents of rain falling outside and I hear pingers, which can only be small hail lol. The wind sounds like a werewolf too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Snowy Sunday upcoming it appears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Gfs looked better fwiw next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'm not sure what's driving that MJO change in the GEFs derivative but that's demonstratively strong through Phase 7 as of the overnight publication. Last week I commented that the MJO was prognosticating at the time was behave quite similarly to the December Phase 4-6 ...in terms of daily intervals and magnitude of the wave in the WH. This GEFs explosion in Phase 7 is also a behavior that took place as those December phase spaces matured. Now here we are in late Phase 5 and the present prognostication is showing the same surge. Also, similarly in that total behavior ...the ECMWF-based products are not nearly as robust - these latter model types also conflicted with the previous phase 7 and on and so on... Basically, it seem the hemisphere is really locked as far as source and sink and these wave spaces appear to be migrating through at relative strength/biases to each models. I suspect this passage isn't going to make sense to some reader in here,... but I thought I mentioned that the MJO is definitely repeating a pattern across subsequent propagation events, just the same. ----- Until that intense and pervasive SPC fills and pulls out that is situated over southern /SE Canada, I don't believe the regions from the GL-OV-NE are favored for bigger more organized episodic cyclones. You can see the models agreeing with that philosophy too, where they show the compression alleviates beyond D8 or 9 and then suddenly there wave spaces kinking the isohypsis near middle latitudes in the extended. That's the relaxation of the intense compression we suffer over the next week or so... This is a partial mitigation ...not an absolute one. It's possible to overcome compression ... 2015 February did so because the SPV got so intense it pressed the entire compressed part of the field S of the 40th parallel in the means for three weeks, inside of which we spun up coastals... That's rarer though. The other way are these "SWFE" deals ... if a high pressure out ahead is timed well and a system goes west, you triple point with snow to ice to cold drizzle then ends.... temp pops for 12 hours in lagged CAA then you bone chill D2 ... That happened quite often in 07-08 we managed a nice 8 incher in February with an SWFE that did just as you described. It was supposed to change to rain but only changed to drizzle right at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Gfs looked better fwiw next week. Yeah little bit of a trend closer to a SWFE. Still has that weird anafront snow band too....but I'm not buying that right now. How about -40C 850s near Chicago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 24, 2019 Author Share Posted January 24, 2019 Today strikes me as a roll-out in the mass fields prior to that buzz-saw amplitude in the mid and early extended ranges across southern/SE Canada... it's like a "slosher" event ... The flow is trying buckle initially to set that buzz-saw up and in doing so,... it concomitantly needed to tip the flow more S/meridian in nature back east. I'm envisioning a better storm potential out around D8-12 because ... this buzz-saw does not appear slated for very protracted domination in the circulation media over this side of the hemisphere... and besides ...there is an apparent robust +PNA signal in coming next week and that should send a disruptive pattern signal through the Canadian Shield...effectively dislodging whatever is raging there. So...flow relaxes some... Pacific sends an important wave through the flow, and there is still ample vestigial continental cold/enhance baroclinicity, and then said S/W is in a better petridish for cyclogenesis. Basically...this is a short physical concept that describes an Archembaultian thing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah little bit of a trend closer to a SWFE. Still has that weird anafront snow band too....but I'm not buying that right now. How about -40C 850s near Chicago? Get ready for the polar vortex on the national news and Trump's twitter feed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 This is what I texted my Chicago relatives: “Heads up guys-EXTREME cold heading your way next week. Like -20 without the wind chill at noon kind of cold” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Meanwhile back to the present for a sec. RN+ right now almost never see it rain this hard in winter. Im a balmy 48F up on my hill while its still 33-34F down below. Roads were super icy this morning.. Okay back to next week and beyond.... liking the 12Z GFS trend for the next storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 this train of rn is not moving fast enough. When is the expected fp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 I wonder if eastern areas especially east of 495 get muted on qpf with the huge totals just to the west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 44 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: It might be silly to say SNE is done...but if someone put a gun to my head id have to say done...obviously i cant predict the future...could we go balls to the wall? Possibly...but, the Pac is unfriendly, there is no blocking, and the gradient winter we have been experiencing so far hasnt changed, even though we had a SSW event. If we get a -NAO im guessing it will establish itself around the same time it did last year...and by that point, im looking to head into spring... And I could be horribly wrong about everything... But going with the pattern and what has transpired, SNE is fighting an uphill battle... You maybe ready for spring by March, but the snowfall still counts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 I would still have some concerns that given this isn’t a true SWFE since it originates in Canada that the GFS might perform better than the Euro on this one. It sure did trend better though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 27 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Snowman19 is in a different universe lol, check out some his posts. on the last page he said: The Pacific has refused to cooperate since late November yes. We were spoiled and compensated for the NAO and AO not being favorable the last several winters. Just based on what I’m seeing now, like I said before, the Pacific is looking to become hostile again come week 2 of February. Question is, is it a week of being unfavorable or something more lengthy? Sounds like he is quoting https://twitter.com/crankywxguy verbatim. Not sure if he posts on here but is located on the EC. His recent blog post which is a good read - http://www.stormhamster.com/entry2/e012219.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I don't really see it...2015 obviously had this amazing PNA ridge that was almost stagnant for a month in a perfect spot.,..but the EPO ridge out west right now is totally fine...look at how cold it is getting recently in Canada (and even here in New England aside from the cutter today)....we could really use some Atlantic blocking which we don't have. We get some transient ridging at times, but nothing solid. Is the PAC perfect? Nope...we'd love a PNA ridge centered over about Idaho....but it is definitely on the good side of the spectrum. It is pouring arctic cold all into Canada and the CONUS. He’s correct if your solely using the GFS and GEFS. At least until 24 hours ago. The majority of the GFS Op runs and a good number of the ensembles for the last 5 days have shown a semi ugly pattern after 200-240 hours. Even today’s 12Z Op tries to sort of do it again. The GFS though might be out to lunch because it’s having MJO problems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Who gives a **** about what cranky thinks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 25 minutes ago, dendrite said: Get ready for the polar vortex on the national news and Trump's twitter feed. Yeah that's always funny....they pretend the PV is a new phenomenon or something. Like Day After Tomorrow type crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBudMan Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 23 minutes ago, weathafella said: This is what I texted my Chicago relatives: “Heads up guys-EXTREME cold heading your way next week. Like -20 without the wind chill at noon kind of cold” I'm in Chicago now Fella....getting outta town tomorrow just in the nick of time. Next week is going to be BRUTAL here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 If only this were snow. Storm's raging out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 54 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: What is so bad about the PAC pattern? We have a huge ridge out in the EPO region. My appologies, i phrased that wrong...currently, the PAC is more favorable. My thoughts are for my feelings on a SNE winter moving forward. CNE is still in the game and I feel better about NNE. For SNE, with all the analyzing of the MJO, and AO, and the PNA, and the NAO, and the EPO, SNE needs more than just one to be in a favorable state out of all of them in order to get an acceptable winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Gefs looked like a few inches too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You maybe ready for spring by March, but the snowfall still counts. Yes, the snow still counts. But when we all talk about grading winters, human emotion also plays a part in the final grade. I would be more content for the meat of the winter snows to occur in january/February than be centered around march/april Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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