January 2019 Discussion II

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

It's very rare to have such a disconnect if the forecast bears out- the AO tanking and the NAO still staying positive?  That's extremely rare.

 

The AO domain encompasses a large area so you need to delve into the details of where those negative anomalies have occurred.  My guess is that the anomalies have been centered further north and west.

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Top 5 for CAR so Far in JAN, And #1 overall so far as of 01/22 exceeding 07/08.

720
NOUS41 KCAR 230054
PNSCAR
MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-231300-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Caribou ME
754 PM EST Tue Jan 22 2019

...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The recent heavy snowfall across northern Maine has produced snow
depths that range from 29 to 42 inches across far northern Maine.
There is 6.4 to 8.4 inches of water contained within that heavy
snowpack. This will be one of many important factors that we will
be continuing to closely monitor this winter and as we approach
the spring break-up.

The recent heavy snowfall has caused a lot of snow to accumulate
on many roofs, and this may pose a concern where the snow has
drifted, and in some spots can be several feet deep. If the snow
accumulation on a roof is in excess of building design it can pose
a hazard and buildings can become vulnerable to structural
failure and possible collapse.

To give some more perspective, a total of 47.4 inches of snow has
been observed at Caribou so far this January, which is the most
ever observed during the month of January since weather records
began in 1939. The old January record of 44.5 inches was
established in January 1994.

This January now ranks as the 5th snowiest month ever at Caribou.
Here are the top 5:

1. 59.9 inches, December 1972
2. 54.5 inches, December 2007
3. 49.4 inches, December 1954
4. 47.7 inches February 2008
5. 47.4 inches, January 2019*

* Through January 22, 2019.

Through January 22, 2019, a seasonal total of 99.2 inches of snow
has been observed this winter. This surpasses the previous record
of 96.2 inches during the winter of 2007-2008 (through January
22, 2008). The winter of 2007-2008 ended up being the snowiest on
record at Caribou with a total of 197.8 inches, and the heavy snow
that winter was one factor that combined with heavy rains and warm
up in April that caused severe flooding in parts of Aroostook and
Piscataquis Counties. While it is still too soon to say that the
snowfall will necessarily lead to flooding in the spring, we will
continue to closely monitor the situation.

$$

CB

There's 2007-08 again, except 2007-08 actually had a very nice front end with frequent SWFE

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Lol..caribou can’t hold a candle to Boston’s snowiest month.

That's actually kind of funny.

[LibertyBell]

33 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Hopefully it works out. 

I would HATE to have to say FIVE below average snowfall winters this century!

The problem being in our all or nothing climate it's either one extreme or the other.  The rarest of winters has become that which is within +/- 5 inches of average snowfall, likewise moderate sized events have also become rare.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

The AO domain encompasses a large area so you need to delve into the details of where those negative anomalies have occurred.  My guess is that the anomalies have been centered further north and west.

and if we do get neg NAO it could be east-based which can also be a hit and miss type of pattern.

[moneypitmike]

Looking at the here and now, we're getting decimated here.  The pack will still be there, but it's taking beating.  RN+ and 47*.  I'm hopeful it melts off the deck though since I hadn't shoveled that.

[OSUmetstud]

In DJFM, there's been 25 positive monthly NAOs and 3 negative monthly  NAOs from 2011-2012 onward. Its an impressive streak. 

[LibertyBell]

26 minutes ago, tamarack said:

IIRC, global temps were depressed a bit for almost 2 years after the eruption.  Jan. 1994 remains the coldest month on record at CAR and Ft. Kent.

the Summer of 1992, if we ever had the winter equivalent of that, people would think the next ice age had arrived.

 

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Obnoxiously maddening....its sucked. But the fact that its been so frustrating, ironically enough, is a sign that there is hope. This isn't one of those awful el nino events....we just haven't had any sensible fruit yet.

And again....we are 4 days into the favored period, have had one decent storm, and another possible early next week.

Perspective-

Our winter thus far is like +1 on temps with obscenely above average precip....definitely some bad breaks happening. This isn't a dry winter or a torch winter at all....you really cannot blame the majority of the result on a bad longwave pattern. We did have periods where it sucked, but overall it hasn't been that bad...prob about middle of the pack. But just like we warned peeps that we could easily get some bad fortune (ala 1980s patterns) when it was snowing....we could easily see the pendulum swing back the other way and get buried...esp since the pattern is mostly favorable looking.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, OSUmetstud said:

In DJFM, there's been 25 positive monthly NAOs and 3 negative monthly  NAOs from 2011-2012 onward. Its an impressive streak. 

It is, I wonder if anyone has pinned down how long these predominant streaks of whether it's one phase or another typically last and when we'd be due for a flip lol.

It seems so variable that there's no regular interval to when the predominant phase changes or what causes it to change.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Our winter thus far is like +1 on temps with obscenely above average precip....definitely some bad breaks happening. This isn't a dry winter or a torch winter at all....you really cannot blame the majority of the result on a bad longwave pattern. We did have periods where it sucked, but overall it hasn't been that bad...prob about middle of the pack. But just like we warned peeps that we could easily get some bad fortune (ala 1980s patterns) when it was snowing....we could easily see the pendulum swing back the other way and get buried...esp since the pattern is mostly favorable looking.

But beyond bad luck Will, it seems to be a very stable pattern of storms hugging or cutting we haven't had a single benchmark track at all.  That should be much more than bad luck- the nao not being favorable probably.

No matter how cold it is, those kinds of tracks almost never result in all snow scenarios on the coast south of central NE.

 

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

But beyond bad luck Will, it seems to be a very stable pattern of storms hugging or cutting we haven't had a single benchmark track at all.  That should be much more than bad luck- the nao not being favorable probably.

 

You have to take in account our climo has plenty of winter rainers anyway , it’s rarely ever epic for more than 10 days 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

You have to take in account our climo has plenty of winter rainers anyway , it’s rarely ever epic for more than 10 days 

Yeah I would assume that on average a benchmark track happens once or twice a month.

[NorEastermass128]

The pack was already down to patches when I left at 6am...fully expecting it to be gone by the time I return.  Good riddance too...can finally get a few runs in before the snow returns Sun-Thu.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

But beyond bad luck Will, it seems to be a very stable pattern of storms hugging or cutting we haven't had a single benchmark track at all.  That should be much more than bad luck- the nao not being favorable probably.

No matter how cold it is, those kinds of tracks almost never result in all snow scenarios on the coast south of central NE.

 

 

Since the pattern is not optimal, we are at the mercy of timing nucances..IE n stream streaks blocking storms, and SWs amplifying behind departing arctic air masses.

Bad luck. Now, if this continues much longer, then that is a missed forecast because I thought it would start to become very favorable around now.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

But beyond bad luck Will, it seems to be a very stable pattern of storms hugging or cutting we haven't had a single benchmark track at all.  That should be much more than bad luck- the nao not being favorable probably.

No matter how cold it is, those kinds of tracks almost never result in all snow scenarios on the coast south of central NE.

 

 

The NAO is part of it....but remember how many benchmark tracks we had without a -NAO in the past few years? So that doesn't explain it if we are talking about the longwave pattern. Most of our misfortune seems to be on a scale lower than the longwave pattern.

Sometimes you just can't get things to line up....a scooter streak here, a bad phase there and you get storms that don't work out...a north carolina blizzard, a Washington DC 12 inch sowstorm....or you happen to get a benchmark track on 12/16 this past year and it is mostly rain because you lost your cold at the perfect time. That happens sometimes and givne a long enough sample of winter, you are going to have some streaks where heads comes up 9 times out of 10 just like you will have streaks where tails comes up 9 times out of 10.

 

I don't think people like to hear that very much though because they want a more ironclad explanation for things. They don't like random variance...they want it explained by something physical they can see and understand.

 

I think the easiest way for me to explain the winter is that the longwave pattern hasn't been favorable for a big winter so far, but it does not explain the magnitude of the futility either.

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

it's too bad, especially since we were supposed to go towards more NAO - winters starting with this season.

 

I don’t think so.  We are headed into the cold AMO so it’s likely -NAOs will be rare over the next 25 years.  It’s unlikely we will see as long a stretch of +NAO winters as we’ve seen but it’ll probably be positive more often than not as it was in the 70s and 80s  

[OSUmetstud]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I don’t think so.  We are headed into the cold AMO so it’s likely -NAOs will be rare over the next 25 years.  It’s unlikely we will see as long a stretch of +NAO winters as we’ve seen but it’ll probably be positive more often than not as it was in the 70s and 80s  

Theres conflicting data on this generally. It may be true...but we are now going into an 8th straight winter of generally positive nao conditions. This would tend to keep the far north atlantic cooler and weaken a sst tripole. Theres a fairly strong correlation between the amo and the nao. 

[#NoPoles]

53 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

 Congrats on 8" this month.

Currently at 5.65inches, the rain hasnt started yet...be interesting to see where im at once this storm is done...super blustery in Plymouth...gusting at least into the 30s

[OSUmetstud]

The flip to the negative amo in the mid to late 60s was during a very negative nao period. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Seems like there has been an absence of decent /normal lake effect snows off Erie / Ontario as well ?

[OSUmetstud]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Seems like there has been an absence of decent /normal lake effect snows off Erie / Ontario as well ?

Yeah...there havent been too many winners in the ne this winter...only northern new england, i think. The lakes should do well in the next couple weeks.

[SnoSki14]

31 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Lol..caribou can’t hold a candle to Boston’s snowiest month.

Is your snowpack still holding? 

[weathafella]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Is your snowpack still holding? 

It was when I left 3 hours ago.  

[LibertyBell]

29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The NAO is part of it....but remember how many benchmark tracks we had without a -NAO in the past few years? So that doesn't explain it if we are talking about the longwave pattern. Most of our misfortune seems to be on a scale lower than the longwave pattern.

Sometimes you just can't get things to line up....a scooter streak here, a bad phase there and you get storms that don't work out...a north carolina blizzard, a Washington DC 12 inch sowstorm....or you happen to get a benchmark track on 12/16 this past year and it is mostly rain because you lost your cold at the perfect time. That happens sometimes and givne a long enough sample of winter, you are going to have some streaks where heads comes up 9 times out of 10 just like you will have streaks where tails comes up 9 times out of 10.

 

I don't think people like to hear that very much though because they want a more ironclad explanation for things. They don't like random variance...they want it explained by something physical they can see and understand.

 

I think the easiest way for me to explain the winter is that the longwave pattern hasn't been favorable for a big winter so far, but it does not explain the magnitude of the futility either.

so if SG is right in what he said about getting into a longterm + NAO pattern, our winters may become more like the 80s?

It's interesting when you need thread the needle scenarios to work out and there are significant snowstorms going both south and north of you lol

 

I wonder if this variability has some sort of long term patterns to it.  If you look at NYC winters starting from the 1870s to the 1910s or so, they always averaged 30 inches or more of snow every winter.  It was after that that our winters became much more variable and the snowfall averages started to decrease.

[weathafella]

Sometimes positive NAO is recoded but there is blocking.  It’s the calculation algorithm that’s used and position of anomalies that has a big influence.  

[LibertyBell]

23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Since the pattern is not optimal, we are at the mercy of timing nucances..IE n stream streaks blocking storms, and SWs amplifying behind departing arctic air masses.

Bad luck. Now, if this continues much longer, then that is a missed forecast because I thought it would start to become very favorable around now.

I still have faith in your forecast because even in el nino winters that didn't turn out so great, February had at least one big storm.  If there's one widespread 20"+ event and another significant event around a foot or so you're in business.  You can easily get that in February and on top of that you have March.  One thing I do like about persistence, is once the pattern flips, it should flip for a prolonged time.  You just need that rubber band to snap.

 

[Lava Rock]

47F. Nice SW breeze

[#NoPoles]

It might be silly to say SNE is done...but if someone put a gun to my head id have to say done...obviously i cant predict the future...could we go balls to the wall? Possibly...but, the Pac is unfriendly, there is no blocking, and the gradient winter we have been experiencing so far hasnt changed, even though we had a SSW event. If we get a -NAO im guessing it will establish itself around the same time it did last year...and by that point, im looking to head into spring...

And I could be horribly wrong about everything...

But going with the pattern and what has transpired, SNE is fighting an uphill battle...

[LibertyBell]

18 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

The flip to the negative amo in the mid to late 60s was during a very negative nao period. 

I saw Don mention some similarities between this winter and 1965-66, if thats the case we can always hope the next one is like 1966-67 lol, that would be backend poetic justice if that were to happen.