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January 2019 Discussion II


Typhoon Tip

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22 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

The last storm in this timeframe had 6/6/1 for snow #s.  Lob off the 1st 2 6s and that's what I saw.

You live in a SWFE banana belt for snow in winters where these occur.  But of we turn to coastals you’ll clean up in a hurry.

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9 minutes ago, weathafella said:

You live in a SWFE banana belt for snow in winters where these occur.  But of we turn to coastals you’ll clean up in a hurry.

I've had quite a few SWFE that dropped 6-12" going back to those mid 2000s.  Goes back to my original point of the overall tenor for the season.  It's been a C/NNE winter for the most part and until the Atlantic gives some help, I feel this new pattern will continue to favor there. 

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6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I've had quite a few SWFE that dropped 6-12" going back to those mid 2000s.  Goes back to my original point of the overall tenor for the season.  It's been a C/NNE winter for the most part and until the Atlantic gives some help, I feel this new pattern will continue to favor there. 

two things are needed, a favorable MJO and a neg NAO.  That would cut down on the fast Pac flow and result in better timing with cold air and storms, and as a result a better storm track.

You said this new pattern- so you dont think there will be another pattern change, one that gives us a favorable MJO and a neg NAO?

Or do you think that the lackluster pattern has lasted so long that average to slightly above can be the best that can be hoped for even if it changes to a better pattern?

 

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9 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I've had quite a few SWFE that dropped 6-12" going back to those mid 2000s.  Goes back to my original point of the overall tenor for the season.  It's been a C/NNE winter for the most part and until the Atlantic gives some help, I feel this new pattern will continue to favor there. 

6-12 for you requires exquisite timing or NAO.  If we can buy NAO things change in a hurry.

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1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

two things are needed, a favorable MJO and a neg NAO.  That would cut down on the fast Pac flow and result in better timing with cold air and storms, and as a result a better storm track.

You said this new pattern- so you dont think there will be another pattern change, one that gives us a favorable MJO and a neg NAO?

Or do you think that the lackluster pattern has lasted so long that average to slightly above can be the best that can be hoped for even if it changes to a better pattern?

 

NAO yes. MJO assertion isn’t born out from Will’s stats on KU and MJO position.  Also, the fast pacific flow is a misnomer.  Just look at the buckling for today’s system albeit with New England on the wrong side.

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I figure it this way. I live in Southern New England in an area that sometimes tries to play central New England. Which means I got winter is like these fairly often. Sometimes they're much worse 2011/2012. Sometimes something fantastic happens February 2015, December 1970, and other occasions. I would much rather live further North with very snowy Winters and much cooler Summers. Thinking maybe Pittsburg New Hampshire or Caribou Maine. That's if I stay in the states. LOL. It doesn't look like the end of the world right now. That's probably the best we can say and maybe even a little better than that. Great thing about weather is you've just wait and see.

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1 minute ago, weathafella said:

NAO yes. MJO assertion isn’t born out from Will’s stats on KU and MJO position.  Also, the fast pacific flow is a misnomer.  Just look at the buckling for today’s system albeit with New England on the wrong side.

Yeah we actually have a huge ridge out west right now....this system is a great example of finally paying the price for no NAO blocking. We have gotten away with no NAO for a lot of winters recently, but this year is costing us on some systems. Today would have been a great system with an NAO given the cold that just preceded. Probably a powder blizzard type.

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2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

two things are needed, a favorable MJO and a neg NAO.  That would cut down on the fast Pac flow and result in better timing with cold air and storms, and as a result a better storm track.

You said this new pattern- so you dont think there will be another pattern change, one that gives us a favorable MJO and a neg NAO?

Or do you think that the lackluster pattern has lasted so long that average to slightly above can be the best that can be hoped for even if it changes to a better pattern?

 

Right now I do not see a favorable ATL into the 1st week of February,  so we are left to rely on the PAC. 

Snowfall is not something one can easily predict with any level of confidence, especially in areas like ours where 1-2 major storms can skew the numbers relative to an overall season.

I guess for the southern portion of SNE, our hope is we can make a run towards 75% of our seasonal norms.

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45 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Wow it's already gone there? Ours is still about 4" of dense softened ice/sleet. But it has to last another 10 hours which might be too much. 

When I left this a.m. it was very sparse with a few areas of just ice.  Here at work in Manchester there was a bit more.

Bullet proof no more. Too bad because it would have been pretty awesome to have that concrete snow stick around right into another snow event.

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Just now, J Paul Gordon said:

I figure it this way. I live in Southern New England in an area that sometimes tries to play central New England. Which means I got winter is like these fairly often. Sometimes they're much worse 2011/2012. Sometimes something fantastic happens February 2015, December 1970, and other occasions. I would much rather live further North with very snowy Winters and much cooler Summers. Thinking maybe Pittsburg New Hampshire or Caribou Maine. That's if I stay in the states. LOL. It doesn't look like the end of the world right now. That's probably the best we can say and maybe even a little better than that. Great thing about weather is he just wait and see.

I'd love Pittsburg in the winter for 5-6 months but I'm not sure I could handle it in April/May/June/October....brutal there. July/August are usually amazing up there though.

 

ORH has a lot of snow cover days to make up this year. The average is around 75 I think and we have about 11 or 12 so far this year, lol.

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1 minute ago, Cold Miser said:

When I left this a.m. it was very sparse with a few areas of just ice.  Here at work in Manchester there was a bit more.

Bullet proof no more. Too bad because it would have been pretty awesome to have that concrete snow stick around right into another snow event.

Same here. Just patches when I left. 

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13 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Nice 1 day rebound for the PNA forecast!

Huge AO drop!

Finally starting to catch up to the better MJO forecast of the ECMWF.

Even the 25% of average snowfall of the south coast can score.

NAO is still crappy.

386336926_pna.sprd2(6).thumb.gif.20d1f55b99176263f7b89fabedc58b40.gif1155068107_ao.sprd2(6).thumb.gif.6cc9cbe248ce974844f076ede003b705.gif281389237_ensplume_small(7).gif.c608a46001fa112721333f791b605c65.gif1649276449_nao.sprd2(8).thumb.gif.c5b0eda175c470121cdc4717d22a87a4.gif

Nice to see the PNA get better, Pacific pattern is improving.  If the NAO stays like that we might have something like a 93-94 pattern.  2002-03 was also snowy with a pos NAO, but I wouldn't go there that el nino was far stronger than this one.

With the brutally cold arctic air, this does remind me of 1993-94 somewhat, but milder than that.

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51 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Now I haven't said this.  From where I sit, next weeks setup is garbage for me.  Ridge axis out west needs to push east another 100-150 miles.  What transpires after next week, is anyone's guess.  Looks like we go into the freezer for a few.  Perhaps we score a clipper in there and then maybe we get a coastal as the PV lifts out.

Bob has been dead on this winter. We follow...

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15 minutes ago, weathafella said:

NAO yes. MJO assertion isn’t born out from Will’s stats on KU and MJO position.  Also, the fast pacific flow is a misnomer.  Just look at the buckling for today’s system albeit with New England on the wrong side.

Yeah, I don't buy into the MJO having a huge factor on us in New England.  

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6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Right now I do not see a favorable ATL into the 1st week of February,  so we are left to rely on the PAC. 

Snowfall is not something one can easily predict with any level of confidence, especially in areas like ours where 1-2 major storms can skew the numbers relative to an overall season.

I guess for the southern portion of SNE, our hope is we can make a run towards 75% of our seasonal norms.

Wasn't 1993-94 somewhat like this- a favorable Pac but the Atlantic side never really got good?

I think Will believes the severe Arctic chill that winter was at least partially the result of Pinatubo lol.

 

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13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah we actually have a huge ridge out west right now....this system is a great example of finally paying the price for no NAO blocking. We have gotten away with no NAO for a lot of winters recently, but this year is costing us on some systems. Today would have been a great system with an NAO given the cold that just preceded. Probably a powder blizzard type.

it's too bad, especially since we were supposed to go towards more NAO - winters starting with this season.

 

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