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January 2019 Discussion II


Typhoon Tip

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Yeah... Will... Though I'm getting yo-yo'ed back and forth on the 'ice' per se...  I'm inclined in this circumstance to believe the lower tropospheric thickness/correction vector has to be pointed cold. 

I don't ever, 100% of the time, ever underestimate cold when +PP is north of SNE.  That just fluid-dynamically is physically impossible, period.  

The only way it ends warmer, is if the models were wrong with the +PP in the first place.  

Anyway, my point is...  I almost wonder if this is like that thing we had late last March...where it was cold and a middling coastal pounded sleet up to 1.5" deep or so...  Not so much as an analog, but to show we can generate a pan-wide pellet carpet bomber storm when there is very proficient surface wedging under an IB/WAA..

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1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

So did the scooter streak save us , a vortex lobe (from cutting)

It's not even that...the southern stream is just getting pinched as it moves east...like Tip said, it makes it hard to completely turn the flow around negative on that. If the PV becomes more malleable then it makes the cutter risk more realistic. 

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1 minute ago, Greg said:

We won't get that kind of ice as modeled.  That will either be heavy sleet and grauple or heavy wet snow with that track.  Mid levels will hold.

There's going to be no wet snow with this storm. Low levels are absolutely frigid. 

I agree on leaning more toward sleet than ZR though. Typically an airmass this cold will want to sleet. We will really need to torch the midlevels really high. Prob like +6-8 at minimum to get ZR because the arctic layer is so cold and pretty thick near the ground. 

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Not too shabby.  Widespread winter precip.

What an ice storm for the Pike region down into CT/NRI.

IMG_1888.thumb.PNG.d432f2713191ddc75c45308eb181c821.PNG

 

I see 7" here, which means the rest of the 1.3" of precip that falls is sleet and or freezing rain....I will pass, send that snow line south please...

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