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January 2019 Discussion II


Typhoon Tip

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Just now, dendrite said:

The server could blow into a million pieces and it wouldn’t affect my blood pressure one number. The only thing putting me on full tilt is trying to get my snowblower fixed. I’ll probably get the parts and get it running 100% in time for spring. That’s how my life works.

Do the cocks peck at your carpenters crack you while you’re working on it ? 

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22 hours ago, weathafella said:

Well let’s just say every report nearest Logan was 4+.  We didn’t really have a marine taint issue for the last storm...it was entirely latitude.

I'll do my best to report to you guys what I'm getting at my place less than a mile from BOS.

Last storm was absolute BS as I had a lot more (about 4in including compaction and sleet) than 1.8"

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You do know Sipprell wrote that right? Lol. Enough said 

Odds are it’s a Rainer dude. Wake up and smell the no -nao , less than optimum ridging . We can wish and wish and hope and pray but a mostly snow event is not favored in SNE. Maybe we get lucky w ULL placement shifting .

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2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’m giving it until the end of the month. If nothing decent is showing inside D3, I’m signing off. No melt, just closing the weather centre and disappearing off the weenie grid until I spread my first lime application.

Bring the family up here. I’ll take you out to dinner and give you rides around the yard on the snowmobile to cheer you up. :sled:

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1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Golf season is rapidly approaching. Exchange the snowmobile for a golf cart and I’m there. 

Lol, rapidly is not how I would describe it. I’m president of my course. I can guarantee we won’t open before the last week of April at the earliest. 

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

468dm thickness and -44C 850s into International Falls on the 18z GFS. Part of me would like to experience that. That 1996 PV brought 6 days of -50s at Embarrass and the state record of -60F at Tower.

 Spent a week in the boundary waters and quetico provincial park canoeing in August 1998.  Driving by Embarrass I bowed down...

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On 1/22/2019 at 6:32 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

If we can’t cash in next 6 weeks it’s purely being on the wrong side of variance. We would take the look 100 times over and do very well on 75 of them.

I'm not sure that's true- this same kind of pattern happened during the entire decade of the 80s.  It's probably MJO related as well as the NAO not being as negative as expected and close to neutral or slightly positive.

This is what you get with a roaring Pacific jet and according to some, a la nina transitioning to an el nino.

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On 1/22/2019 at 8:21 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Well if 8 of 9 systems screw us odds are it’s something we’re not seeing that is unfavorable, not “bad luck” 

I beleive if you  compare what the models do when we are at present compared to what they did look like for today (10 days ago @ day 10) there is a greater process that the models are not compensating for that constantly makes things less favorable as we get closer to a really good period 

we will see in 7-10 days 

bad luck is always used as an excuse for many things lol, its not his fault, I see it used in statistics quite often and its the wrong approach, it evades oneself from a deeper understanding of whats going on

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On 1/22/2019 at 10:28 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

Right ...and I'm telling you ... there has been a change. 

The gradient is steeper ...there is more cold air loading in Canada... because there are higher latitude ridge arcs in the means over western Canada...  those represent fundamental "change"  ... and fairly profound ones at that. 

The storm "track" this and that is one small facet amid a pallet of quantifiable differences.  If the track remains the same but the other identities morph, that doesn't negate the pattern as having changed. 

There's a tendency to conflate what folks want with "change" but that's not sound logic frankly...   By your saying "I feel like everything is the same" ...that is missing the change in lieu of not getting what you want. 

It may not last the rest of winter.. .but... the December patterned changed into what we are seeing. It changed into a more aggressive version, which unfortunately ... counts ;) 

Hence the joke/muse (btw) ... making a deal with the Devil.   But that's for muse...

 

Yep, the pattern has definitely changed.  We actually had six different changes in the pattern during the cold season.  The first one gave us our November event, the second one gave us a cold Thanksgiving and cold/dry start to December with suppression, the third one gave us the mild pattern after that to early January, then number four was back to cold/dry and suppressed again and then number five was back to mild again and the sixth one is the one we just started on Jan 19th- cold and dry interspersed with temp spikes during storms.

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50 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yep, the pattern has definitely changed.  We actually had six different changes in the pattern during the cold season.  The first one gave us our November event, the second one gave us a cold Thanksgiving and cold/dry start to December with suppression, the third one gave us the mild pattern after that to early January, then number four was back to cold/dry and suppressed again and then number five was back to mild again and the sixth one is the one we just started on Jan 19th- cold and dry interspersed with temp spikes during storms.

What?   The 19-20 featured a major winter storm event in 90% of our geography in New England.  That was followed by the coldest stab in years followed by today’s cutter with heavy rain.

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6 hours ago, mreaves said:

Lol, rapidly is not how I would describe it. I’m president of my course. I can guarantee we won’t open before the last week of April at the earliest. 

For you up there, I know. Down here though, we have 4 weeks of true winter left now then on to March where it’s always a toss up.

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