January 2019 Discussion II

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

The cold on the eps is impressive starting January 30th, consecutive days below freezing might be higher than our met winter snowfall...

Lets turn our attention to the Flash Flood Watch for tomorrow first. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

I have faith the bitter cold will arrive , the pattern supports that 

Pretty balmy feeling in Nashua currently 

the pack was impressive but i am completely fine with 100% melting and walking on grass for next few days . Prob won’t melt out completely but we’ll see 

nam had 45 degree plus dews from 6z to 21z 

[NYCweatherNOW]

24 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

gfs with a huge......frontal passage Wed.

Where you getting the gfs 

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Where you getting the gfs 

Pattern is so bad the Tropical Tidbits gave up on loading GFS.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Where you getting the gfs 

Pivotal:

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php

[weathafella]

Weenies!

[Damage In Tolland]

I’d watch Sunday and Tuesday / Wed.. that setup does not scream inland runner. Watch it evolve 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’d watch Sunday and Tuesday / Wed.. that setup does not scream inland runner. Watch it evolve 

This is definitely a more reasonable post than guaranteeing snow out of the event. 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is definitely a more reasonable post than guaranteeing snow out of the event. 

 

I think you agree too 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

gefs are beat, inland runner followed by a front with fanny tickling wind chills. Dress appropriately.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

gefs are beat, inland runner followed by a front with fanny tickling wind chills. Dress appropriately.

Lil' front-end love for the deep interior?

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Lil' front-end love for the deep interior?

They’re loaded with snow actually .

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

32 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Weenies!

I’m giving it until the end of the month. If nothing decent is showing inside D3, I’m signing off. No melt, just closing the weather centre and disappearing off the weenie grid until I spread my first lime application.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Lil' front-end love for the deep interior?

OK look from wma on northeastward. 

[512high]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’m giving it until the end of the month. If nothing decent is showing inside D3, I’m signing off. No melt, just closing the weather centre and disappearing off the weenie grid until I spread my first lime application.

lol. you know you can never leave us.......

[Lava Rock]

Lets turn our attention to the Flash Flood Watch for tomorrow first. 

Pass

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[HIPPYVALLEY]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

They’re loaded with snow actually .

 

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

OK look from wma on northeastward. 

I feel like we are going to slowly step-down the gradient of the systems over the next few weeks to where everybody scores 2-3 nice events.

[Typhoon Tip]

Wouldn't shock me if the GL-OV-NE regions had to wait out the buzz saw before anything important happens...  Flow looks better to me way out there after that useless deep fills/rolls out enough for S/Ws to become the dominate torque providers again.

 

[powderfreak]

35 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’d watch Sunday and Tuesday / Wed.. that setup does not scream inland runner. Watch it evolve 

I don't even think inland runner really describes the situation like it's a normal low coming up the eastern seaboard.  It's a massive ULL over the northern lakes and the primary low is a cutter into Ontario. 

Hard to say looking at that if the set-up screams inland runner or not... if that ULL remains west the southern stream will get absorbed and ripped right up the Hudson River Valley.  If the ULL is further east, then it comes up the coast.  It's all about the positioning of that feature.  No blocking so it's not a "should" type of scenario... seems like it'll be luck as to where exactly that ULL ends up. 

For a bigger event, we'd all want that ULL to trend a bit south and east.

Thread the needle event for sure with marginal temps at this time. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’m giving it until the end of the month. If nothing decent is showing inside D3, I’m signing off. No melt, just closing the weather centre and disappearing off the weenie grid until I spread my first lime application.

And sending a fity

[STILL N OF PIKE]

8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I don't even think inland runner really describes the situation like it's a normal low coming up the eastern seaboard.  It's a massive ULL over the northern lakes and the primary low is a cutter into Ontario. 

Hard to say looking at that if the set-up screams inland runner or not... if that ULL remains west the southern stream will get absorbed and ripped right up the Hudson River Valley.  If the ULL is further east, then it comes up the coast.  It's all about the positioning of that feature.  No blocking so it's not a "should" type of scenario... seems like it'll be luck as to where exactly that ULL ends up. 

Thread the needle event for sure with marginal temps at this time. 

It’s nice to see a post based on reality 

and not the message Obama ran on before his first win 

[kdxken]

43 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’d watch Sunday and Tuesday / Wed.. that setup does not scream inland runner. Watch it evolve 

Uh Huh..

Tuesday through Wednesday ...

Another potent storm. Onset wintry weather prior to erosion per S
winds. Not ruling out lead cold air drainage, however loosening with
interior surface to low-level low center over the N Great Lakes if
the 23.12z EC is correct. Another soaking for S New England possible
with another 1-2 inches of rain, strong S winds. Perhaps a repeat of
the coming storm? Wait and see. Low confidence forecast as forecast
models wobble, shift, adjust

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

12 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I don't even think inland runner really describes the situation like it's a normal low coming up the eastern seaboard.  It's a massive ULL over the northern lakes and the primary low is a cutter into Ontario. 

Hard to say looking at that if the set-up screams inland runner or not... if that ULL remains west the southern stream will get absorbed and ripped right up the Hudson River Valley.  If the ULL is further east, then it comes up the coast.  It's all about the positioning of that feature.  No blocking so it's not a "should" type of scenario... seems like it'll be luck as to where exactly that ULL ends up. 

For a bigger event, we'd all want that ULL to trend a bit south and east.

Thread the needle event for sure with marginal temps at this time. 

Right. And the ULL has trended more westward shifting the axis unfavorably for sne. NNE eill score either way so again... congrats.

[kdxken]

13 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I don't even think inland runner really describes the situation like it's a normal low coming up the eastern seaboard.  It's a massive ULL over the northern lakes and the primary low is a cutter into Ontario.  

Hard to say looking at that if the set-up screams inland runner or not... if that ULL remains west the southern stream will get absorbed and ripped right up the Hudson River Valley.  If the ULL is further east, then it comes up the coast.  It's all about the positioning of that feature.  No blocking so it's not a "should" type of scenario... seems like it'll be luck as to where exactly that ULL ends up. 

For a bigger event, we'd all want that ULL to trend a bit south and east.

Thread the needle event for sure with marginal temps at this time. 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Uh Huh..

Tuesday through Wednesday ...

Another potent storm. Onset wintry weather prior to erosion per S
winds. Not ruling out lead cold air drainage, however loosening with
interior surface to low-level low center over the N Great Lakes if
the 23.12z EC is correct. Another soaking for S New England possible
with another 1-2 inches of rain, strong S winds. Perhaps a repeat of
the coming storm? Wait and see. Low confidence forecast as forecast
models wobble, shift, adjust

You do know Sipprell wrote that right? Lol. Enough said 

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

It’s nice to see a post based on reality 

But if that whole thing moves slightly southeast from the recent EURO guidance, it's right in SNE's wheelhouse for Miller B fun.

Day 5 stuff, so anything is possible.  Even more likely there's no storm at all and it's a FROPA or something.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

But if that whole thing moves slightly southeast from the recent EURO guidance, it's right in SNE's wheelhouse for Miller B fun.

Day 5 stuff, so anything is possible.  Even more likely there's no storm at all and it's a FROPA or something.

I feel like a SWFE is most likely if it trends snowier. 

That's kind of what the mean looks like with the primary near CLE/ERI and some CAD showing up ahead of it with a high over Quebec extending southeastward into N Maine...classic setup to get a redeveloping triple point. 

But yeah...144 hours out:

 

 

 

 

[dendrite]

33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

They’re loaded with snow actually .

You seem really on edge in your posting today. Like thisclose to a mega melt. We had a few Mt St Helens melts today, but I feel like yours is building up pressure for a Yellowstone supervolcano melt in a week or so if none of these “threats” pan out.

If you ever need to talk, I’m here.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, dendrite said:

You seem really on edge in your posting today. Like thisclose to a mega melt. We had a few Mt St Helens melts today, but I feel like yours is building up pressure for a Yellowstone supervolcano melt in a week or so if none of these “threats” pan out.

If you ever need to talk, I’m here.

I’m as cool as the other side of the pillow . I made peace with a N winter after we lost Dec and then most of this month. When we get another storm threat and the server slows and collapses like last week.. will you get angry like you did last week?

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m as cool as the other side of the pillow . I made peace with a N winter after we lost Dec and then most of this month. When we get another storm threat and the server slows and collapses like last week.. will you get angry like you did last week?

The server could blow into a million pieces and it wouldn’t affect my blood pressure one number. The only thing putting me on full tilt is trying to get my snowblower fixed. I’ll probably get the parts and get it running 100% in time for spring. That’s how my life works.