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January 2019 Discussion II


Typhoon Tip

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I thought it was too troughy in the GOA but I defer to the experts.

GEFS were a little east with the low so the low heights spill into GOA a bit but you can still see the ridge popping east of it. That would be fine...esp in early February. I'd expect the final position will retrograde more though. 

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7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The PV being near HB is exactly where we want it. Why would you want it parked over Burlington, VT?

I don't want it over BVT.  I see one lobe of the PV pushing thru on Monday.  It's the follow-up lobe that's my one focus.  Heights are beginning to recover after the Monday lobe moves thru and there is a southern stream s/w that is also mucking up the flow.  I'd prefer to the follow up PV lobe just N of say Lake Superior by about 12z Mon/ 00z Tues at the latest to make this more interesting then currently modeled.  Just how I see it right now.

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1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I don't want it over BVT.  I see one lobe of the PV pushing thru on Monday.  It's the follow-up lobe that's my one focus.  Heights are beginning to recover after the Monday lobe moves thru and there is a southern stream s/w that is also mucking up the flow.  I'd prefer to the follow up PV lobe just N of say Lake Superior by about 12z Mon/ 00z Tues at the latest to make this more interesting then currently modeled.  Just how I see it right now.

Oh, you are referring to the timing of specific n stream waves....I though you meant the main PV.

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8 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I don't want it over BVT.  I see one lobe of the PV pushing thru on Monday.  It's the follow-up lobe that's my one focus.  Heights are beginning to recover after the Monday lobe moves thru and there is a southern stream s/w that is also mucking up the flow.  I'd prefer to the follow up PV lobe just N of say Lake Superior by about 12z Mon/ 00z Tues at the latest to make this more interesting then currently modeled.  Just how I see it right now.

To try and illustrate my thoughts.

500h_anom_na.thumb.png.de1d5cf2f9c1f790514d814104e17876.png

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Core of PV over BTV is like "congrats DC"... now it makes more sense what Bob was saying ha.

I would never want the center of a PV over your ass.  I'm referring to the lobes that are rotating around it.  That's going to be a critical piece to next week without any help from downstream blocking.  Timing is everything.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My hedge is that it works out....just a guess.

Well you def need it for your outlook. Lol. 

Theres def potential with that one. The northern stream shortwave gets broken in half crossing over western Canada near the Rockies on this euro run.  We either want that to stay intact (if it did, I think we get a Miller B rather than the second broken piece becoming a storm too far west) or the initial PV lobe to settle further southeast giving us a Miller B anyway. 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Well you def need it for your outlook. Lol. 

Theres def potential with that one. The northern stream shortwave gets broken in half crossing over western Canada near the Rockies on this euro run.  We either want that to stay intact (if it did, I think we get a Miller B rather than the second broken piece becoming a storm too far west) or the initial PV lobe to settle further southeast giving us a Miller B anyway. 

What time range does that fracture occur? Guessing the Euro does not have that right.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What time range does that fracture occur? Guessing the Euro does not have that right.

Around 96-102 hours. The GFS does it too though it buries the lagging energy so that the focus is on the main northern stream wave. 

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