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January 2019 Discussion II


Typhoon Tip

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It's out to 144 hours at GG ... 

Same old same old....  too much compression...waves tending to shear/absorb...   Sloped and gradient rich gives faux allusion of favorability but until some of the velocity saturation comes down...it's going to be tooth pulling getting broader organized events to pan out -

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Impressive EPO ridge/noded block formulation in the 00z guidance by D10 ... 

I was mentioning to Scott the other day ... I thought it was possible that the receding back to the data-line of the Alaskan sector might by false .... He was speaking in deference to the D11-15 ... but, sufficed it is to say, this rather abrupt onset of D10 -EPO construct shows that "tendency" lurks ...

I would be taking even the EPS' D11-15's with a grain -

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21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS def looks interesting for Tuesday. Too suppressed for Sunday except maybe some light snow of the C-1" variety (more for the upslope fetish locations)

Interesting?  Maybe for C/NNE verbatim.  Primary pretty far west over the GL.  With another SLP off southerast coast, there is only so far this can diggity dig.

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Just now, SnoSki14 said:

I've entered the acceptance stage of this winter and whatever happens, happens. 

I just can't believe raindancewx's winter forecast is turning out to be true. 

We have a long way to go yet....but if by Mid to late March and nothing has happened in the snow dept.....then I think everybody will have to give Raindancewx Kudo's for an incredible call when all were exactly the opposite.  But there's a lot of Winter season left to go..no spiking Yet.

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3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I've entered the acceptance stage of this winter and whatever happens, happens. 

I just can't believe raindancewx's winter forecast is turning out to be true. 

We are 3 days into the period during which I said that winter would begin in earnest, and most of sne had a decent snowstorm on the first day.

Absurd. He would have to look good at this point for me to verify.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

BOS has been mini BTV lately. I feel like at times it runs a tick or two warm. HFD is +0.4. PVD -0.2, and BOS +1.5.   That's a little too much of a difference for me.

idk about PVD, but that last cold shot was definitely more centered toward WNE/BDL. CON is +1.0 and PWM +0.6. Not a lot of rhyme or reason to the departures so far this month. IF there isn't a gradient, usually we'll see the rad spots with similar departures and the more mixed sites with similar departures.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We are 3 days into the period during which I said that winter would begin in earnest, and most of sne had a decent snowstorm on the first day.

Absurd. He would have to look good at this point for me to verify.

I forget exactly what his forecast was, I think he used the 94/95 and 06/07 analogs.

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8 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Interesting?  Maybe for C/NNE verbatim.  Primary pretty far west over the GL.  With another SLP off southerast coast, there is only so far this can diggity dig.

I guess we differ on what constitutes interesting. I'm not looking for verbatim snow maps that show us jackpotting. But I see a shortwave approaching us from the southwest with a good high in place. GFS doesn't quite squeeze everything under us like the GGEM does but I would still consider that interesting. 

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

idk about PVD, but that last cold shot was definitely more centered toward WNE/BDL. CON is +1.0 and PWM +0.6. Not a lot of rhyme or reason to the departures so far this month. IF there isn't a gradient, usually we'll see the rad spots with similar departures and the more mixed sites with similar departures.

I’ve noticed this for a little while now. I can understand a half degree or a little

more difference, but that’s sort of pushing  it. Just something to watch. 

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5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

We have a long way to go yet....but if by Mid to late March and nothing has happened in the snow dept.....then I think everybody will have to give Raindancewx Kudo's for an incredible call when all were exactly the opposite.  But there's a lot of Winter season left to go..no spiking Yet.

By mid to late March? If by mid FEB we have nothing....then it’s time to take Ray to the woodshed and handcuff him face down.

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Just now, WinterWolf said:

As I said..long way to go here.  I Agree with Ray that he would be looking good at this point, but we are nowhere close to even thinking about spiking the ball on Winter Forecasts on Jan 23rd.  

Very true, the pattern going forward doesn't look too bad. 

Think something could pop in a couple days.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I guess we differ on what constitutes interesting. I'm not looking for verbatim snow maps that show us jackpotting. But I see a shortwave approaching us from the southwest with a good high in place. GFS doesn't quite squeeze everything under us like the GGEM does but I would still consider that interesting. 

I didn't look at a single snow map.  Just looked at the 500mb and SLP maps.  My concern is the PV is way up in Hudson Bay so I don't see much mechanism to get this to dig further S.

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Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

I didn't look at a single snow map.  Just looked at the 500mb and SLP maps.  My concern is the PV is way up in Hudson Bay so I don't see much mechanism to get this to dig further S.

Perhaps the Good High can press it down a bit more, and have it dig a little further south????

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