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January 2019 Discussion II


Typhoon Tip

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Fwiw - 

"WPC -

Meanwhile, downstream surges of frigid Canadian air into the central U.S. become more significant Thursday through the weekend as the northern stream amplifies around a wobbling Hudson Bay upper vortex. Leading lows Thu-Fri spread some modest snows over the northeast quarter of the nation. Upstream, a more robust system ejecting from the West organizes over the southern Plains with increased Gulf of Mexico moisture and lift through Arkansas Saturday as an arctic front to the north pushes through the Northeast. As precipitation overruns the cold airmass to the north, heavy snow will spread out of the Central Plains through the Midwest/Ohio Valley and then Mid-Atlantic/Northeast as potentially heavy warm-sector rains/convection move through the South. The transition zone between the snow and rain will likely include sleet and freezing rain with this overrunning signal. There is an increasing signal in guidance/improved model and ensemble clustering for a significant and widespread heavy snow/ice event to the north of a subsequent main low track through the East then up off the coast. Please consult WPC Day 4-7 QPF and Winter Weather Outlook for a probabilistic assessment of the coast to coast winter weather threat."

Thing is ... yesterday I dropped the ice idea .. kinda wondering if that was mistake. After hitting it hard for a couple of days ... I started thinking that this system's fields would be narrowed ...perhaps limiting that contention but that may have been a mistake to back down yesterday.  hm

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