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January 2019 Discussion II


Typhoon Tip

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9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah but this is when it's wicked fun to poke the hornets nest ...  So readable... transparent really, and endless tormented fun. 

Seriously the EPS looking suspiciously Miller B -ish for D7/8...

It's interesting because there's been operational contention for more of a Miller A... yet the EPS ops for more N-stream.    And by the way, this is the closer manifestation of that whopper amplitude the models were putting up in their extended from 3 or 4 days ago.  I think there's a still an important signal in that time frame but we don't really know what is going to come of it.  

I favor Miller B from here on out.

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3 hours ago, mahk_webstah said:

 I have to say Mr. iceberg, you have slowly but surely subtly yet relentlessly become one of the top five funniest people on this board. Zeus is still number one,  and his standard is above most mortal human beings,  but you’re definitely top five.  Your ultimate melt will be very fun!

top 5:

Zeus

Brian

Ruanaway

Scott?  (It’s dry and subtle)

who am I missing?  Forky when he’s not being a biatch 

Forky still has my favorite post of all time, It was several years ago during a dull winter and he posted "Enjoy your clipper" with a picture of dim sun through a high gray overcast.

I laughed so hard I nearly wet myself. Thread was crazy long for a brush from a weak sauce clipper that a very long shot at best....

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11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

eps looks ok, for now. But when a system has NNE as their strike zone this season, even from the warning track at like D10, it fires a bullet right down Broadway. Pretty remarkable. 

Look at snow climo for BTV/CAR/AUG/LEW/CON/PEM.

Then compare to BOS/ORH/PYM/PVD/BDL/HVN

 

Case closed.

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17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's 8-9 days out. I wouldn't sweat it right now.

Yeah definitely not on an OP run.  Just using it as the gradient pattern has been incredibly stable.  Every run has a ton of snow in southern Canada and sometimes it spills down into NNE.  I feel like I haven't seen a model run show less than 12-24" across Quebec in a very long time. 

It's almost like a Nina gradient winter so far.  Southern Canada has been absolutely buried, and we've snuck into that a few times now in November and again in January. 

For SNE, with the upper level trough early next week and spokes rotating around it, I wouldn't sleep on an Advisory event popping up somewhere in there.

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Just now, weathafella said:

Look at snow climo for BTV/CAR/AUG/LEW/CON/PEM.

Then compare to BOS/ORH/PYM/PVD/BDL/HVN

Case closed.

To be honest, ORH isn't that far from a bunch of those stations like BTV/CON/PWM climo wise but the gradient has been extreme.

We were probably sort of due for something like this though given the past decade.

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9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

To be honest, ORH isn't that far from a bunch of those stations like BTV/CON/PWM climo wise but the gradient has been extreme.

We were probably sort of due for something like this though given the past decade.

ORH actually averages more than CON....basically a wash with PWM...PWM is technically like an inch or two more I think on the long term average.

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Strong sw there on Sunday. Might help set the stage for next week?

We def want Sunday's shortwave stronger and to push heights south behind it. That would make Tuesday better. That's what the happy hour GFS does. 

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

You can't make this stuff up anymore. 

This is like the winter that seemingly wants to say "Thanks for putting up with 2012-2016 when Vermonters smoked more cirrus than herb". 

Glad that's mostly out in la-la land, otherwise I'd be getting more inches of rain than snow.

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

ORH actually averages more than CON....basically a wash with PWM...PWM is technically like an inch or two more I think on the long term average.

What's the ORH 81-10 norm using your 90s numbers? I think CON will make up a couple inches on their norms after ditching the obs from the airport.

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