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January 2019 Discussion II


Typhoon Tip

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19 minutes ago, MJOatleast7 said:

Judah hanging on for dear life:

"However the MJO is expected to trnasition to five and six over the next two weeks.  MJO phases 4-6 favors ridging over eastern North America with mild temperatures and troughing over western North America with cold temperatures.  It is not obvious to me that the MJO is influencing North American weather. "

ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

While I don't speak to his exact motivation for making that statement - assuming he really did ...  - my own impressions of the MJO significance arrives me to a similar conclusion. 

The MJO is just another index in a myriad of them ...Each can be dominate at any given time ...masking the influence of the others because its magnitude/forcing is much bigger...

Then, the given index fades ...and some other gets its turn; it then masks influence, and it seems like it's the whole game.   

All the while, some of these indexes are even effected by the other ...given time dependencies... 

If the surrounding hemispheric medium is in phase with the MJO ... it will "seem" like the MJO is driving the whole thing... when what it may (most likely...) be doing is only enhancing.  Folks should read up on "destructive" vs "constructive" wave interference in physics - it'll help elucidate what this is all about... and perhaps open a door to a deeper understanding of why say ... Phase 8 did A but this time it did X ...and that goes to other Phases ... as well, why NAOs and PNAs and WPOs and all of them are at times more than less seemingly correlated to resulting patterns.  

All that, which represents the maelstrom of the atmosphere, creates a reality where there are no absolutes.  Because a Phase 8 this did that, but didn't do that the next time... and on and so on, the correlations are never 1::1.  And in fact, there are no indexes that correlated perfectly with either adjacent indexes, or patterns.  ...  But some can and do correlated very highly...  

As far as the MJO in the here-and-now:  I see that as almost identical to that which preceded the recent Phase 8... I recall several weeks ago this wave was in Phase 5 and was segmented with similar timing intervals, as well... similar magnitude separated from the COD/inner region.  The wave painfully unfurled through Phase 6....then 7... finally 8...   I wonder if we're just going to repeat that whole cycling ... regardless of whether it seems to(or not) correlate with patterns. 

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24 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I like those too... those moments when your in a kind of "nook" that's cozy.  It's an autumn and spring phenomenon.    

Sometimes on that rare April day when April isn't being the more typical asshole,  I like those faux mild moments like that. 

Those moments that actually cause Keven pain ...  thank god!

But uh, we get that in October sometimes going the other way. An early chilly air mass in a calm wind over saffron leaf fall with still relative sun warmth has its splendor.  

Sounds like one of those days you’re playing disc golf with the fellas in the woods 

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Know what's gonna be awesome ... 

...  I was just noticing that it is January 22.   22!  I can't believe it's been 22 days since New Year's eve...  Then I got to thinking, that kind of zoomed time experience is going to happen (of course...) moving forward, and it'll be almost the ides of February. 

And thank god ... it'll almost be over -

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

No what's gonna be awesome ... 

...  I was just noticing that it is January 22.   22!  I can't believe it's been 22 days since New Year's eve...  Then I got to thinking, that kind of zoomed time experience is going to happen (of course...) moving forward, and it'll be almost the ides of February. 

Thank god ... it's almost over -

We just passed the climo coldest day of the year up here. Everything is uphill from here.

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10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

AWT.

Him and Scoots stepped away for this next rainer to Mainer.

Not much to talk about amidst the whining. The D8-9 threat could look totally different in a couple days.

 

I'd say we shouldn't sleep on Sunday either. There's a chance with that shortwave,

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not much to talk about amidst the whining. The D8-9 threat could look totally different in a couple days.

 

I'd say we shouldn't sleep on Sunday either. There's a chance with that shortwave,

Thought that too. Has a tasty look if we can amplify things just a bit more. 

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not much to talk about amidst the whining. The D8-9 threat could look totally different in a couple days.

 

I'd say we shouldn't sleep on Sunday either. There's a chance with that shortwave,

Yeah but this is when it's wicked fun to poke the hornets nest ...  So readable... transparent really, and endless tormented fun. 

Seriously the EPS looking suspiciously Miller B -ish for D7/8...

It's interesting because there's been operational contention for more of a Miller A... yet the EPS ops for more N-stream.    And by the way, this is the closer manifestation of that whopper amplitude the models were putting up in their extended from 3 or 4 days ago.  I think there's a still an important signal in that time frame but we don't really know what is going to come of it.  

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