January 2019 Discussion II

[NorEastermass128]

51 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

I see we are back to suck for next 7 days. Rainer mid-week. EPS mean LP for next weekend event looks like it goes right over outer Cape. But with a retreating high and the storms origination of Miami, have to be concerned warm air wins out.  Plenty of time to figure it out though.

Yeah. You can see it on the 12z GFS. Cutter potential reigns supreme. We need that -NAO and we need it now. 

[DavisStraight]

21 minutes ago, mreaves said:

I’ve got to go out and finish digging out. Been putting it off since 8:00 this morning. 

Me too, snowblower crapped out on me, now I have to chip away at a glacier, the sleet and freezing rain made the pack bullet proof.

[BombsAway1288]

Does anybody know the low maximum temps for the day at various stations in the area? I think a midnight high at Logan ruined any chance at a sub 10 degree high

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 f w light flakes 

#westowe4aday

[40/70 Benchmark]

Only up to 2.5 off a low of 1.6

[wxeyeNH]

I think today will be my coldest maximum in 30 years.   -5.4F at midnight and up to -4.4F at noon.   Should stay below zero for the day.

[TalcottWx]

2 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

I think today will be my coldest maximum in 30 years.   -5.4F at midnight and up to -4.4F at noon.   Should stay below zero for the day.

Imagine if we had a real arctic high

[BombsAway1288]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Your winter forecast is going down in flames and a lot of rain.

First off, winter is not over yet. Second, I've only been following Ray's blog for a few years but his amateur knowledge is a hell of a lot better than anything you can comprehend and he's nailed a lot more storms/patterns than he's missed. And third, it's not our fault you live basically on the coast in NJ in beautiful East Brunswick and you have 5in of snow on the year so you feel the need to come in here and troll. It's not just this, you've been doing it for years. Stick with your sub-forum and maybe you'll get lucky and catch a few inches on the back end of a SNE special, Miller B bombing blizzard.

[weathafella]

9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Your winter forecast is going down in flames and a lot of rain.

NAO gone, Pacific blocking will go to sh**. Your snows will melt in a few days. 

Really?  Pacific looks ok actually.   The Scandinavian block retros to an east nao in the longer range.   And we won’t lose our snow from the warm stab this week.....it’s kind of bulletproof.   I can walk on the glacier without sinking in.   Do you know anything aside from whining?

[CoastalWx]

what a clown 

[Damage In Tolland]

A S NJ poster coming into our forum and having a meltdown .

[dendrite]

20 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Does anybody know the low maximum temps for the day at various stations in the area? I think a midnight high at Logan ruined any chance at a sub 10 degree high

Station | Record | Max temp so far
CON | 2F (1943) | 1F (midnight)
BDL | 8F (1985) | 4F (midnight)
BOS | 12F (1985) | 10F (midnight)
ORH | 8F (1985) | 1F (midnight)
PWM | 7F (1888) | 12F (midnight)
PVD | 7F (1985) | 10F (midnight)

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

No it really doesn't. Where's the big NAO block and PNA ridge that the weeklies had? Many places will warm in the 40s & 50s on Wednesday, that will easily eat through the pack.

I know when it's time to admit the forecast was a flop, that the weeklies were a flop, and that this isn't the pattern that was promised weeks ago. 

I’ll send pics on Friday if the forum lets me upload.

[BombsAway1288]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I could not care less if it doesn't snow anymore, I just want forecasters to own what's been going on. This is not the epic pattern that was promised, plain & simple. 

And the majority of SNE have only a few inches to date, so don't act like you've been nailed by blizzards all year. 

Calm down, I never dismissed the knowledge. 

No we haven't been slammed all year here but the potential is there. And most of SNE has more than a few inches now. SE Mass has struggled though.

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

No it really doesn't. Where's the big NAO block and PNA ridge that the weeklies had? Many places will warm in the 40s & 50s on Wednesday, that will easily eat through the pack. 

I know when it's time to admit the forecast was a flop, that the weeklies were a flop, and that this isn't the pattern that was promised weeks ago. 

As of this date in 2015,we had about the same snow to date.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Isotherm said:

Re: concerns pertaining to the lack of robust negative NAO initiation thus far:

 

1) Recall my last update, I noted that we would be entering a period of destructive interference post the Mid-Atlantic snowstorm, due largely to poor tropical forcing. I expected this to yield a rainstorm for the Northeast coast for the most recent event, which did occur.

 

2) The development of constructive interference, whereby the troposphere and stratosphere act harmoniously, was said to return after the 25th, in the last week of January.

 

3) The NAM has been negative; however, the weakly negative NAO ineffectual to date; why is that the case?

 

4) There's a misconception that the stratosphere entirely governs the progression of the NAO modality, but that is erroneous...

 

If tropospheric receptivity is such that conditions are unpropitious for -NAO maintenance at the z500 level, it is irrelevant what transpires in the stratosphere

 

If the stratosphere were entirely governing, we wouldn't have years w/ SSW events such as 2011 in which no tropospheric blocking resulted.

 

5) So, the stratosphere plays a significant role, but until the rossby wave train is oriented such that a proper block can retrogress into Greenland, it won't occur.

 

6) The etiology of the destructive interference lies principally in the propensity for upper divergence [convective generation] near the Maritime Continent.

 

7) This has ripple effects. It disrupts the canonical Nino-esque angular momentum cycle, by creating easterly trades in the central Pacific, lowering momentum, and inducing positive deposits in high-latitude regions which activate the polar jet such that the flow becomes too fast

 

8] Extratropical momentum pulsing attempts to countervail, but until the Maritime Continent convection [which has also been obviating proper SOI response] diminishes, a strongly negative NAO will not initiate

 

This is changing.

 

A weakly negative / transient NAO develops later this week, which could play a salutary role in the resolution of the 27-28th winter storm threat; although, it is largely EPO/PNA driven. Usual caveats apply, but it is certainly a threat to monitor, and the most conducive threat to date.

 

The Maritime Continent divergence will finally subside by the end of January. This is evinced quite ostensibly on the chi z200 propagation plots, and the easterly negative trades will subside as well, permitting emergence of more classical walker cell forcing.

 

It's not necessary the MJO itself, but overall divergence has been antithetical to proper +AAM transport through the sub-tropics and consequently negative deposits poleward.

 

Conclusion: The atmospheric pattern has changed and is much colder. The NAM has reversed, but the spasmodic NAO has permitted rainstorms for the East Coast [expected for the last event]. A real negative NAO will finally emerge as tropospheric receptivity increases dramatically by February 1st.

 

Notes and asides: Snowfall timing is the most difficult parameter of a long range forecast. However we get there - we get there. A forecaster should not be penalized for snows not being "evenly spread throughout the winter." If the final tally at the winter's end is close, then it's a good forecast. So, while there's been no snow to date, that will simply have to be dealt with. That doesn't intimate non-emergence prospectively. Key indicators and atmospheric changes were foreseen, and now we will watch the final dominos this week. I have read some comments here and there across the boards that forecasters promised a historic winter, etc., or a historic winter period; I simply want to make clear that those words never emerged from my end. My winter snowfall forecast from November for NYC-area was 37-47". This is still attainable.

 

Tom

 

[weathafella]

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

No it really doesn't. Where's the big NAO block and PNA ridge that the weeklies had? Many places will warm in the 40s & 50s on Wednesday, that will easily eat through the pack. 

I know when it's time to admit the forecast was a flop, that the weeklies were a flop, and that this isn't the pattern that was promised weeks ago. 

Pattern they called is still a week away so I would wait for verification.

[BombsAway1288]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Station | Record | Max temp so far
CON | 2F (1943) | 1F (midnight)
BDL | 8F (1985) | 4F (midnight)
BOS | 12F (1985) | 10F (midnight)
ORH | 8F (1985) | 1F (midnight)
PWM | 7F (1888) | 12F (midnight)
PVD | 7F (1985) | 10F (midnight)

Thanks. Looks like Hartford, Worcester and Boston are going smash those records.

Could you or anybody tell me when the last time Boston had a sub 10 degree high?

[SnoSki14]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

A S NJ poster coming into our forum and having a meltdown .

All I ask is people own that this won't be the pattern that was promised weeks ago that's all. 

This is not a hit against anyone's knowledge. Meltdown over.

Please feel free to delete all these posts. 

[butterfish55]

Must be a Chiefs fan

[powderfreak]

The difference this winter from here to Boston seems to be about as extreme in the opposite as 2015 was from Boston to here.

One thing that stood out to me this morning, is that @40/70 Benchmark has made a lot of mentions of 1968-69 in his seasonal musings and analogs.

The Mount Mansfield stake is now at a very high-end reading for this time of year, in fact only 1 season had a deeper snowpack on this date in the past 60 years.

That one year that was deeper today was 1968-69.  I found that real interesting with Ray making mention of that a bunch and being a better analog than what he originally picked.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I could not care less if it doesn't snow anymore, I just want forecasters to own what's been going on. This is not the epic pattern that was promised, plain & simple. 

And the majority of SNE have only a few inches to date, so don't act like you've been nailed by blizzards all year. 

Calm down, I never dismissed the knowledge. 

For the love of god, shut up.

Just shut up. Who has not acknowledged how frustrating this winter has been? Who hasn't "owned" that?

 All you do is whine and complain, and dribble on about how miserable the weather is, and how much you hate life....well I'm sorry, go bird box into oncoming traffic, but don't take all of our threads along with you.

As far as I'm concerned, the first half of winter underperformed, and we are having a mildly encouraging beginning to the 1/20-2/20 period that I have touted all along.

This week is going to suck, but I don't think its white flag time just yet.

Take this crap to the banter thread.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

23 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I’ll send pics on Friday if the forum lets me upload.

You can print them out at cvs and mail it to him...include a postcard that reads “melt deeez nuts.” 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The difference this winter from here to Boston seems to be about as extreme in the opposite as 2015 was from Boston to here.

One thing that stood out to me this morning, is that @40/70 Benchmark has made a lot of mentions of 1968-69 in his seasonal musings and analogs.

The Mount Mansfield stake is now at a very high-end reading for this time of year, in fact only 1 season had a deeper snowpack on this date in the past 60 years.

That one year that was deeper today was 1968-69.  I found that real interesting with Ray making mention of that a bunch and being a better analog than what he originally picked.

1969 was very RNA and was a perfect ENSO match.. we have not seen the NAO yet, but I still think that we will.

The aspect of analogs that gets lost on many people is that when you select an analog, its usually not that you expect a replica evolution to the oncoming winter, but rather that there are elements of important value to be elicited from that analog. Thus far, we have seen it with 1969, but I still feel that there is value in 1978 for the balance of the evolution of this season. 1969, as well.

 

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

For the love of god, shut up.

Just shut up. Who has not acknowledged how frustrating this winter has been? Who hasn't "owned" that?

 All you do is whine and complain, and dribble on about how miserable the weather is, and how much you hate life....well I'm sorry, go bird box into oncoming traffic, but don't take all of our threads along with you.

As far as I'm concerned, the first half of winter underperformed, and we are having a mildly encouraging beginning to the 1/20-2/20 period that I have touted all along.

This week is going to suck, but I don't think its white flag time just yet.

Take this crap to the banter thread.

Fair enough, my apologies. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Fair enough, my apologies. 

No one is more frustrated than I am...believe me. And the melts are a source of much needed comic relief, but it just can't be all of the time. I used to do the same thing, and it just gets to be too much. Feel free to go drop more in the banter thread, or flame the crap out of me, if that will  make you feel better.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Fair enough, my apologies. 

You’re fine to voice concerns and melt if you chose to. We have a couple weeks before I start dripping.

[powderfreak]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1969 was very RNA and was a perfect ENSO match.. we have not seen the NAO yet, but I still think that we will.

The aspect of analogs that gets lost on many people is that when you select an analog, its usually not that you expect a replica evolution to the oncoming winter, but rather that there are elements of important value to be elicited from that analog. Thus far, we have seen it with 1969, but I still feel that there is value in 1978 for the balance of the evolution of this season. 1969, as well.

 

Yeah I get it completely.  Just thought it was interesting as that year keeps popping up in snow records up this way... it showed up in November and now it's the only winter that had higher mountain snow depths than right now.

Interesting how that stuff shows up after being discussed as analogs.  Not a replica but parts of it are definitely present. 

[SnoSki14]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No one is more frustrated than I am...believe me. And the melts are a source of much needed comic relief, but it just can't be all of the time. I used to do the same thing, and it just gets to be too much. Feel free to go drop more in the banter thread, or flame the crap out of me, if that will  make you feel better.

I understand, I won't flame you. Your blogs have been excellent, it's a tough year for forecasters. I'll stick to banter for more concerns, less meltdowns.

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You’re fine to voice concerns and melt if you chose to. We have a couple weeks before I start dripping.

This hobby is not the healthiest. Fingers crossed Feb 2015 walks through that door.

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

 

This hobby is not the healthiest. Fingers crossed Feb 2015 walks through that door.

Lol I remember exactly how that walks through the door saying started here. Bobalouie posted to me late Jan 2013 that as we got into Feb, Jan 11 was not walking through the door,then it did. Repeated by Wiz I think in Jan 15 with a Feb 13 isnt walking in the door,  which I bumped end of Feb 15, saying you were right Feb 13 didn't walk in the door Feb 34 did. Things change on a dime man, chillax and hope for the best.