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January 2019 Discussion II


Typhoon Tip

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What's the point of moaning about another rainer on Wednesday and Thursday. Will help with getting roads clear for the next one. Would prefer snow of course but the winter of 018-19 is hardly over. Not time to be whining about sun angle and terrible patterns. Like we can do anything about it anyway.

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8 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I know someone who was an observer at White Plains in the 80s and 90s and said some guys didn’t want to go out to measure snow so they would estimate the depth from looking at foot prints in it thorough the window  

laziness has been around forever...that's hilarious though

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17 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Thinking about walking the doggie on this holiday....but steeling myself....I’m at 1/-8.

Same 6 degrees here - pixie dust in the air

 

17 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Thinking about walking the doggie on this holiday....but steeling myself....I’m at 1/-8.

 

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So the 00z operational Euro was a little better with the latter event (over next weekend), in that prior to the southern impulse moving through the lower Miss. Valley longitude, the flow over Miami (general rule of thumb) was lower than 582 dm, and the balanced geostrophic wind velocities were lower than 35 kts (estimated..). 

That means that as the S/W in questions bottoms out over the SE ... it's not getting its mechanics completely absorbed ... This fast flow/compression with over-abundant gradient year after year and year is alarming - as an aside.  But, it's doing it during this (perhaps) seasonal nadir pattern ... I wouldn't say outright we are bottoming out, but... Jan 20th could be. 

Anyway, backing off some of the compression in the deep S/SE is allowing more conserved S/W-centric momentum to organize cyclogenesis in that area.  Miller-A baby! 

The GGEM attempts a subsume phase ...which I find harder to believe it would succeed, given that it's flow evolution still sports a lot of gradient and fast flow ... It may be why it only partially phases and the deep layer ends up wobbling vorticity nodes as it trundles en mass up into the Maritimes the way it does... But, not before it does a rain/mix to blizzard (probably) for eastern NE..

The EPS is colder than the operational Euro, and as far as I can tell ...for D7 that is a pretty potent signal there with 1000 mb multi-contour surface pressure pattern and trough identity. ... The GEFs mean ..not so much.

As far as the nearer term thing... it's quite the rub that we have a single digit high temp and rollout the cold into a 50 F air mass - heh, let's ignore it.

 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I just noticed that. All the attn was to the storm, but when I saw the 925 temps I was like holy crap that’s  cold. 

Yeah I noticed it a couple days ago (it was well modeled) that the 850 temps were meh but 925 was nuts. I was trying to figure out why 2m temps were so balls cold. 

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6 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

I see we are back to suck for next 7 days. Rainer mid-week. EPS mean LP for next weekend event looks like it goes right over outer Cape. But with a retreating high and the storms origination of Miami, have to be concerned warm air wins out.  Plenty of time to figure it out though.

eps_snow_m_neng_29.png

Scooter feels like weekend is interesting and wintry with caveats 

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Hopefully euro comes in a bit less amped. Some of the other guidance tries to keep midweek a little more suppressed so we could at least not get a few hours of 50s. I'll take some cold rain to clear the ice pack on the driveway but don't want to erase the bulletproof 5" pack in the yard. 

I can stand on it without falling through. We had just enough brief ZR mix into it with the sleet that it turned into a glacier. 

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29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Hopefully euro comes in a bit less amped. Some of the other guidance tries to keep midweek a little more suppressed so we could at least not get a few hours of 50s. I'll take some cold rain to clear the ice pack on the driveway but don't want to erase the bulletproof 5" pack in the yard. 

I can stand on it without falling through. We had just enough brief ZR mix into it with the sleet that it turned into a glacier. 

I had zero frz rain...all snow/sleet. I never understood why some had my area in the max icing zone.

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