Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,608
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Vesuvius
    Newest Member
    Vesuvius
    Joined

January 2019 Discussion II


Typhoon Tip

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 3.6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
14 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

I thought an epic pattern is coming ?

Epicness seems to have been pushed out by same ol same ol.  From GYX:

500 MB pattern now seems to shift to a lower wave number across
NOAM, with border troughs/ridges. Rex block setting up over the
atlantic with braid troughing across Canada and the central
CONUS. Looks like we will see smaller aves moving through this
larger scale trough, and the polar vortex does shift equatorward
toward James Bay during the period, so expect to the roller
coaster ride of temps, and systems every or 2 or 3 days. Earlier
model runs predictions of very cold outbreak not there any more
although we will see some periods of below, and abv normal
temps.
The next chc of precip will be in the WEed-thu range, and looks
like low will develop over the GReat Lakes and cross across the
the CWA, rather than moving to our south. This will bring warmer
in ahead of it, and there p-type, especially in the south could
be mostly rain. I am not convinced of this yet, given the cold
snowpack on the ground, it should at least start as something
freezing or frozen, and may stay snow in the mtns. Still, will
take the wait and see approach here, and keep p-type uncertain
in the forecast for most of the area.

Should see some colder air move in for Friday into next weekend,
but it doesn`t look super cold, but probably a little below
normal.

Nothing epic.  Now we fight for a little fun at some point in the next few weeks.  I won't believe any modeled pattern any longer in the mid or long range.  

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There were actually two systems on the Euro...  Well, three - but who's counting the near term rainer ...save Kevin, who's working the magic eight ball to turn that into an icer.. :)

The D9.5/10 has a potential icing signal/mix to snow look to it... 

That flow is hellabit amped though ...as I was saying earlier.... too amped.   I'd like to see some undulatory behavior with three less isohypsis everywhere...  just sayn'

But the western ridge is in tact at least in the operational run through D10.  

I will say I am personally > 50 % that the -EPO loss is transitory and it will flex again.  The hemisphere is still reeling from last month's SSW and that tends to a solid month of modulation -

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This winter has been one big FU from mother nature. 

Whatever can go wrong will go wrong. Now I'm about 6 weeks away from it being the most disappointing, atrocious winter ever. 

If it wasn't for tonight's cold, November would still lead for the snowiest month with the coldest temps of the season. Just awful.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

39 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

This winter has been one big FU from mother nature. 

Whatever can go wrong will go wrong. Now I'm about 6 weeks away from it being the most disappointing, atrocious winter ever. 

If it wasn't for tonight's cold, November would still lead for the snowiest month with the coldest temps of the season. Just awful.

90% of the forum has snow otg.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

This winter has been one big FU from mother nature. 

Whatever can go wrong will go wrong. Now I'm about 6 weeks away from it being the most disappointing, atrocious winter ever. 

If it wasn't for tonight's cold, November would still lead for the snowiest month with the coldest temps of the season. Just awful.

What a melt.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, jbenedet said:

Potential is definitely there imo. We revisit in 36 hrs. 

Looks like crap to me...maybe a little frozen up here to start, but we’re going to need big changes to make this more wintry. That high is way east and is pumping in the deep southerly flow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Looks like crap to me...maybe a little frozen up here to start, but we’re going to need big changes to make this more wintry. That high is way east and is pumping in the deep southerly flow.

 Based on the popes last couple posts 

My sources say the popes hiatus took him to a troubled young mans house in Harwich to exercise his snow demons . Seems instead of exercising those issues he acquired them. Treat his posts accordingly 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Looks like crap to me...maybe a little frozen up here to start, but we’re going to need big changes to make this more wintry. That high is way east and is pumping in the deep southerly flow.

I think most significant icing events look like crap in terms of the synoptic setup and marginal temps. It’s almost a prerequisite to “look like crap”...

18z GEFS is already pretty cold at the surface and that’s obviously not reflecting any of the mesoscale cold tucks we get this time of yr...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

I’m In Northern Maine...and man what a raging Blizzard we are having currently... full blown blizzard conditions with about a foot already accumulated..and much more to come.  

Not everyday you see blizzard conditions/heavy heavy snow, and temps of -2F!!  Big time storm here.

how much was otg b4 this storm began?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, codfishsnowman said:

how much was otg b4 this storm began?

Well Over 3 feet.  With this bomb coming through now, they’ll be pushing 5 feet. Place is buried.   Yesterday the high was -8F.  Thursday night at 8:30 pm, the truck temp was reading -22f lol.  This place is in its own world...northern Aroostook County is definitely a place to be behold from a winter weather point of view. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Actually, that's not true.  Sikorsky averages 29" per year, and they are on a peninsula in the Sound.  But here is the real problem...I did a some research a number of years ago, and discovered that the NWS at Sikorsky, at least into the 1980s, measured snow by taking the liquid equivalent, and multiplying by 10....no matter what.  The best example was February 1983.  They recorded 13" of snow, when we all had to shovel 20".  However, a check of the records shows they also recorded 1.3" of liquid equivalent, even though the temps were in the teens throughout the storm.

I know someone who was an observer at White Plains in the 80s and 90s and said some guys didn’t want to go out to measure snow so they would estimate the depth from looking at foot prints in it thorough the window  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...