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January 2019 Discussion II


Typhoon Tip

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6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

10’th 

show me what is “epic” about upcoming pattern please. Couple maps, maybe even post a couple milf pics to distract. 

I’m not sure who said this winter would be epic. I’ve felt all along it would be normal to slightly above in regards to snowfall. As the winter went along it became obvious the  Pacific was going to screw SNE. You can’t have a great winter when you completely lose Dec and most of Jan.Feb will be a relatively snowy month , but Morch should flip warm after first week or so . 

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15 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Didn’t Will say just a day or two ago that the pattern going forward looked Excellent??

 

Been Doing some sledding this weekend so haven’t been following too closely lately...the good look is now gone???  

My guess is that was before we “lost the good pacific look” and now the so so Atlantic might not be that serviceable for us w crap pacific. Still an active pattern where we can score in February. Certainly not an epic look currently 

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1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Average range is 30 to 35 for our area.

Actually, that's not true.  Sikorsky averages 29" per year, and they are on a peninsula in the Sound.  But here is the real problem...I did a some research a number of years ago, and discovered that the NWS at Sikorsky, at least into the 1980s, measured snow by taking the liquid equivalent, and multiplying by 10....no matter what.  The best example was February 1983.  They recorded 13" of snow, when we all had to shovel 20".  However, a check of the records shows they also recorded 1.3" of liquid equivalent, even though the temps were in the teens throughout the storm.

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Mm..

Don't like the compact nature of the heights ...

I mean this for "determinism"

It's hard to count on any guidance to "maintain" a system structure at this sort of time lead prior to the onset of natural perturbation and so forth to begin with; expecting even the Euro to do so when the flow is fast is even less likely.  That much flow compression brings into question the amount of N-S amplitude, also - as an immediately correctable assumption.

Bottom like... very low deterministic value there.

I dunno ...things are weird.  This is like fifth winter in a row where there's been a spate of this insane planetary wave gradient/saturation ... I have some eye-roller ideas on why but... part of the reason today's system resulted the way it did was related to that...

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22 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm..

Don't like the compact nature of the heights ...

I mean this for "determinism"

It's hard to count on any guidance to "maintain" a system structure at this sort of time lead prior to the onset of natural perturbation and so forth to begin with; expecting even the Euro to do so when the flow is fast is even less likely.  That much flow compression brings into question the amount of N-S amplitude, also - as an immediately correctable assumption.

Bottom like... very low deterministic value there.

I dunno ...things are weird.  This is like fifth winter in a row where there's been a spate of this insane planetary wave gradient/saturation ... I have some eye-roller ideas on why but... part of the reason today's system resulted the way it did was related to that...

Thank you for making me look up what planetary/rossby waves were. What a world we live in where I can instantly learn about the weather while verifying the grocery list with the wife on a small device that lives in your pocket!

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3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

The idea that the pacific went bad is absurdly wrong.  Yes the PNA goes down but eps shows a honking EPO for sure!   If we can get some nao we’ll get some cutter insurance.

It's probably not even real in the first place, Jerry ...

I can't count how many times in a pattern the ridge out there went away ...only to just end up being there anyway

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

It's probably not even real in the first place, Jerry ...

I can't count how many times in a pattern the ridge out there went away ...only to just end up being there anyway

I’m just missing what everyone is fretting over today.   The guidance looks stormy with ample cold.  Some Atlantic blocking can bring us snow vs rain.  And that’s being modeled.

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59 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Actually, that's not true.  Sikorsky averages 29" per year, and they are on a peninsula in the Sound.  But here is the real problem...I did a some research a number of years ago, and discovered that the NWS at Sikorsky, at least into the 1980s, measured snow by taking the liquid equivalent, and multiplying by 10....no matter what.  The best example was February 1983.  They recorded 13" of snow, when we all had to shovel 20".  However, a check of the records shows they also recorded 1.3" of liquid equivalent, even though the temps were in the teens throughout the storm.

Trust me I agree that it SHOULD be much higher. Unfortunately I can only go by NWS.

snowclimo.PNG.a9f38701d341be953c93bef586a5f8cb.PNG

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9 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I’m just missing what everyone is fretting over today.   The guidance looks stormy with ample cold.  Some Atlantic blocking can bring us snow vs rain.  And that’s being modeled.

Negative energy powers this board sometimes. Lots of folks who see everything as a downer. If I lived on the south coast/CC/southeast Ma I would be less than happy. But here in Worcester we made out as well as could be expected and dodged a bad ice storm (which was my biggest fear). And in the end it is just weather. At my age I have more pressing issues.

All that said, it is a blast to track storms (and failures) and just talk weather and follow the stream of consciousness conversations that sometimes erupt. Things certainly don't look disastrous moving ahead. This is NOT 2011-2012 by any stretch. Lets hope the coastal folks get something decent soon. I'm rooting for James to get a good hit soon even if it means being on the edge here. Better yet, hope we get one of those all NE storms that everyone of us crazy people can enjoy.

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