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January 2019 Discussion II


Typhoon Tip

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2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Breath taking model run with those -30 C, 850 mb temperatures/plume wrapping around the cyclone in a 70 mph maelstrom ...right over Lake Michigan.  When that relaxes on the next panel folks better hope it doesn't do it all at once cause that would trigger one hell of a seiche wave event in Chi Town for one... But the open water under that kind of cold - that's ludicrous

Ha, seiche!  There's a term I haven't heard in a long time!  Here's a fun fact...when New England had the February 1978 blizzard, the combination of the storm and massive James Bay high kicked Chicago's winds into the NE, and they had 9" of LES.

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Wow. Polar vortex moves into the US on the op runs. Hype it up.

Lots of terrible articles out there already.

https://www.sootoday.com/local-news/weekend-outlook-the-polar-vortex-is-upon-us-1201524

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The much dreaded and sensationalized Polar Vortex will drop over Ontario this weekend for the first time since 2015.

No PV in Ontario since 2015? :lol:

In honor of naming things, I’m going to name this PV “Polar Vortex James.”

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I'd be more impressed if that high temperature of -15 F at 240 hours (1pm) occurs at ORD!!!  

high temperature.  after a morning low of -25

This... from the consummate warm-biased boundary layer model, too.

Something is up in the time range.... Too much ensemble support of super-synoptic scale driven planetary wave event of some kind and seeing these operational runs tap into it ... may want to keep an eye on that time range.

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10 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Ha, seiche!  There's a term I haven't heard in a long time!  Here's a fun fact...when New England had the February 1978 blizzard, the combination of the storm and massive James Bay high kicked Chicago's winds into the NE, and they had 9" of LES.

I think a seiche might have happened there during Sandy too, there were reports of storm surge on Lake Michigan!

 

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2 hours ago, weathafella said:

On the gfs, there is s 468 thickness contour just north of Lake Superior on d6-7.   I’m not sure I’ve seen that before in modeling.

Coldest I've seen was Jan 1985, the Reagan second inauguration, got to -2 here and stayed in the single digits for highs (7).  The lows were about as cold in Jan 1994 but the high reached 10 so the daytime high was a bit higher.

Jan 1977 might have been as cold as Jan 1985 but I was too young to remember.

 

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51 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Deep winter continues with flooding rains next week.

Scott, might I suggest going into the futility thread for an epic cathartic melt? Come back refreshed and regrouped and then you'll be ready welcome the rains like Andy Dufraine. My personal magma chamber is building ominously. I'm just waiting for the Cleveland super bomb part deux to materialize.

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