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January 2019 Discussion II


Typhoon Tip

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11 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Interestingly enough...GFS MEX gives BOS an 8 for Friday, 1 Saturday, 8 Sunday.  8 Friday?  What gives?

Not ready to dismiss that ...  

whether 8, per se, or just 4-6" of over-production notwithstanding, that's a flat wave air on the side of "little critter that bites" if there's ever a trap-game weather event at all. 

It's a S/W ejecta/forced egress out of that L/W situated just west of San Francisco ... i.,e. a soup con of uncertainty as to total potency. Then enters a medium that has some Rockies lee-side return flow of theta-e already on-going. Notice the misty QPF around Galvaston/Bend region of Texas at 60 hours?  ...could make for some surprising rich banded material on rad..., which then rides up into a region with lingering lateral d(thickness)/gradient ...This latter factor imposes a subtle steepening of the frontal slopes aloft, which causes more upright moving parcel lift tapping into that streak momentum... Frontogenic ... I bet if you found a product that illustrates that we'd see some indication of that... or should if don't. 

That's a little critter that's pretty classically a candidate to ignore but has some potential.  I think bust vector is pointed upper advisory scale and despite all consternation ...that little guy may be the most consistently modeled thing we've elided up to this point.  

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Not sure whether this is a good thread for bringing this up or whether the banter thread might be better, or even if it might deserve a thread of its own...

There is a total lunar eclipse that will be visible across all of North America this coming Sunday night Jan 20 into early Monday morning Jan 21, reaching totality starting just after midnight EST. But the first 'bite' out of the full Moon taken by the Earth's shadow will start several hours before that.

Not only will this be a total eclipse of the Moon, but the Moon will be a 'super Moon' because it is closer than 'normal' to the Earth, 

It's also the only total lunar eclipse this year. So there will be a lot of interest in it.

Not sure of the forecast for that time IMBY, maybe the useful models won't be in hand for another day or two - it looks like earlier in the day on Sunday the 20th we can expect clouds and precip, while on Monday the 21st things may clear up - but it's the 'when' of the clearing up that will interest many folks. (The NAVGEM 00Z Jan 21 model output above shows precip ended for SNE - that would be ahead of the start of the eclipse by a few hours - but that does not indicate whether skies will be clear or not)

See, for example: https://www.slooh.com/shows/event-details/604

(full disclosure, that's where I work - our telescope views of the eclipse will be coming from elsewhere, such as from our observatory in the Canary Islands, but I'd still enjoy watching it live from MBY)

and: https://www.timeanddate.com/eclipse/map/2019-january-21

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