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January 2019 Discussion II


Typhoon Tip

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That's probably pushing the limit in SD for that particular lat/lon in the mid levels... 

And here you were saying the PV can't totally go in under at our latitude.....all kidding aside, that's pretty funny to see that.

 

 

Jan18_12zEuro228.png

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

And here you were saying the PV can't totally go in under at our latitude.....all kidding aside, that's pretty funny to see that.

 

 

Jan18_12zEuro228.png

Ha ha... I've been doing that a lot lately ... saying one thing than the models deliberately challenge... Although, in my defense... I did say "... wonder if that is physically possible" - not really that it can't. 

I just don'te recall ever seeing sub -486 dm atmospheric abyss S of LI.... . OH, do I WANT to see that?  f' yes!  but I think something like that would be the very first time that has happened. - if that is not the very first time that image above ever happened either.  

wow - 

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21 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Tip, I think we are the only two New England board members who experienced the Cleveland Super Bomb.  This looks similar IMO.  -30c reaching Kentucky???  WTF is that?

 

Yeah ...it came to mind... but it's actually an analog that's weakened by the fact that the gradient is so strong... 

That's not saying anything to cyclogenic parameterizaton of this run's look ... I'm talking specifically about the evolution aloft.  

This run does subsume... at 144 hours, you can see a 'dent' in the isohypsic layout up there in NW Canada... shortly after that trips over the flow and races SE (like a roller coaster toppling the big arc) ...the arc amplifies N and that induces the western end of the SPV to crash S over the boarder... But, the ally-'oop S/W is by then down in TX (or so...) and the two end up dangerously collocated in by the time it all mashes up in the western OV... 

That total behavior is very similar ...if not eerily so ... buuut, doing so with 8 close isotachs that's a hugely unusual circumstance, one that even beats out the CSB by multiple SD when also considering the scale of total involvement in that integrated storm energy - ... that's really not believable.. .but that's another discussion.

As is... the hyper gradient limits the total comparative value - I think... curious what other Mets think.  Isn't there also an analog tool but oh wait... probably not available with gov shut down. 

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9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ha ha... I've been doing that a lot lately ... saying one thing than the models deliberately challenge... Although, in my defense... I did say "... wonder if that is physically possible" - not really that it can't. 

I just don'te recall ever seeing sub -486 dm atmospheric abyss S of LI.... . OH, do I WANT to see that?  f' yes!  but I think something like that would be the very first time that has happened. - if that is not the very first time that image above ever happened either.  

wow - 

Nearing peak winter climo. If there was ever a time for this to be physically possible it would be the end of January/early February...

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Breath taking model run with those -30 C, 850 mb temperatures/plume wrapping around the cyclone in a 70 mph maelstrom ...right over Lake Michigan.  When that relaxes on the next panel folks better hope it doesn't do it all at once cause that would trigger one hell of a seiche wave event in Chi Town for one... But the open water under that kind of cold - that's ludicrous

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

if perhaps for muse only ...you know, there is a 1978 ness about all this... 

like, this 20-21st thing is some how a dirty analog for that year... then, (D10) Euro with a dirty analog for the Cleavage Super Boob ... then, what happens after ?  heh

'78 has been one of Ray's analogs in his seasonal outlook. I might substitute another word for that LR Euro map. "Inconceivable!"

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

if perhaps for muse only ...you know, there is a 1978 ness about all this... 

like, this 20-21st thing is some how a dirty analog for that year... then, (D10) Euro with a dirty analog for the Cleavage Super Boob ... then, what happens after ?  heh

My main analog this season.

HM and I were pimping that analog on twitter last week.

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2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Thank you. So -40s is a totally different league. Wow.

Yes it would be...but the 2016 cold shot was actually centered a bit below 850mb once you take into account lapse rates....we had colder 850 temps in 2004 and yet 2016 crushed those numbers. ORH recorded their coldest temp since 1957 in the 2016 outbreak. The anomalies were greater down in the 925mb range.

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