40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Euro looks very nice for new england Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Euro looks very nice for new england Snow maps are likely running heavy over SNE due to sleet, and the QPF is being over modeled. Bottom line: I still like 5-10"/6-12" followed by sleet and fez drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Snow maps are likely running heavy over SNE due to sleet, and the QPF is being over modeled. Bottom line: I still like 5-10"/6-12" followed by sleet and fez drizzle. I think sleet and ice will be a major problem for alot of people. Alot of premature spiking yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: I think sleet and ice will be a major problem for alot of people. Alot of premature spiking yesterday. I think the ice is being overplayed...especially with the colder trend. Sleet, sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think the ice is being overplayed...especially with the colder trend. Sleet, sure... I wouldn't mind a feb 2007 sleet redux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geo1 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Snow maps are likely running heavy over SNE due to sleet, and the QPF is being over modeled. Bottom line: I still like 5-10"/6-12" followed by sleet and fez drizzle. I hate these set ups. Good thing I cut all those pine trees down. Not gonna help though with the current depiction. Some place is going to lose power and if past history says any thing it will be close# sell! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think the ice is being overplayed...especially with the colder trend. Sleet, sure... If the high remains in that position, you take the under on modeled temps right now. Your area of cold in the sounding would definitely outweigh the area of warmth = sleet. But a threat of a period of freezing rain would definitely be on the leading edge of the cold tuck as it undercuts the warm air aloft. Near the coast from like NE MA northward could also see a period of freezing rain (verbatim) because we shouldn't see temps warm above freezing (for reason stated above) but have a little warmth aloft near 925. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geo1 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Not looking forward to that. Ouch! but if the D&D wants in tolland let’s keep it there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Looks like immediate east coast has a good shot to finally see some snow. was following Harvey and he’s honkin ...he also has been posting how this has been Boston’s worst winter to date ...on record! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Eps also came further south compared to 12z and 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Alot of eps members came south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 21 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Looks like immediate east coast has a good shot to finally see some snow. was following Harvey and he’s honkin ...he also has been posting how this has been Boston’s worst winter to date ...on record! Told you man! This one is coming for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes. Really puts things into perspective how silly a few were for locking in the super amped crap. Always unlikely with no blocking and a PV breathing down its neck. I've said it a million times....resolve the $ht yourself, develop a valid postulation, and utilize the models as guidance....too many folks forecast backwards, and are thus prone to wildly swinging along with guidance like a weenie in the wind. We knew all along. I think a bunch of us postulated it pretty well. Not driving into that cold air... more SE shifts are coming too. Far enough away that this easily can go all snow for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 13 minutes ago, powderfreak said: We knew all along. I think a bunch of us postulated it pretty well. Not driving into that cold air... more SE shifts are coming too. Far enough away that this easily can go all snow for SNE. I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 This is a tough forecast. It's still pretty far out there, but it was a pretty significant shift colder by the 00z guidance. With the tools at my disposal that creates a whiplash forecast to significant snow, at the risk that things trend back slightly warmer with future runs. So I had to artificially blend in the 18z GFS to warm things up and provide a step down but more gradual that solely blending the previous forecast with 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 13 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: This is a tough forecast. It's still pretty far out there, but it was a pretty significant shift colder by the 00z guidance. With the tools at my disposal that creates a whiplash forecast to significant snow, at the risk that things trend back slightly warmer with future runs. So I had to artificially blend in the 18z GFS to warm things up and provide a step down but more gradual that solely blending the previous forecast with 00z. So, you're saying you are having fun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, #NoPoles said: So, you're saying you are having fun? I mean it actually is kind of fun to run and re-run the grids to see what falls out. A lot of times the first run on snowfall is because snow ratio is almost always modeled too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Big shift in the EPS individual members last night. I think SNE stays all snow when this is done. That cold won't be denied. Biggest shifts will come tomorrow, too. Watch James go all snow . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Big shift in the EPS individual members last night. I think SNE stays all snow when this is done. That cold won't be denied. Biggest shifts will come tomorrow, too. Watch James go all snow . I feel more confident now that powderfreak is on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes. Really puts things into perspective how silly a few were for locking in the super amped crap. Always unlikely with no blocking and a PV breathing down its neck. I've said it a million times....resolve the $ht yourself, develop a valid postulation, and utilize the models as guidance....too many folks forecast backwards, and are thus prone to wildly swinging along with guidance like a weenie in the wind. You’d be shocked at who bit yesterday morning on the amped, warm, wet solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I feel more confident now that powderfreak is on board. Ha, that was tongue in cheek. But less phasing and it's going the way of the UKMET. That might have been mean though, I doubt you really have a shot. I just want to see tomorrow's runs when everything comes ashore and energy sampled. Day 5-6 forecasts are rarely correct without some adjustments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You’d be shocked at who bit yesterday morning on the amped, warm, wet solutions You get the paint peeled off your house after 6-8" of snow on the Euro. You should call to schedule a re-painting lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, powderfreak said: You get the paint peeled off your house after 6-8" of snow on the Euro. You should call to schedule a re-painting lol. I’d welcome 6-12” of snow and and another 6-12” sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Well let’s hope some of these trends continue today. I’m always afraid of that correction back in the final two days. Even the DC storm came north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 hours ago, powderfreak said: Told you man! This one is coming for you guys. We spike @ day 3.5 its not guaranteed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 You knew though that you were not going to barrel that low into that airmass without resistance, The changes happened as mentioned, Now over the next day or two settle in on a track, I’m leaning inside the BM to ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well let’s hope some of these trends continue today. I’m always afraid of that correction back in the final two days. Even the DC storm came north. There is like no spread from the North Americans SE of the low track, but a 15 mb spread NW. The 16.00z suite basically was the perfect solution, with the range of outcomes being this mean track or NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think the ice is being overplayed...especially with the colder trend. Sleet, sure... this looks like one of those 93-94 or 06-07 storms lol The other storm that I was thinking of was the Christmas Day 2002 storm that went from heavy rain to heavy snow here and we ended up getting 8 inches of snow on the backside Christmas night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 At least snow totals for this one over a broad area should be fairly uniform in this setup to the ones that remain mostly all snow, The variances will be greater once the sleet/ice factors are in place over the areas that are in line for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.