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January 2019 Discussion II


Typhoon Tip

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13 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Yes and now let’s not nudge much more

Deep inside, a part of you feels/fears the specter of a pressing arctic high actually taking this in the other direction and saying "congrats James!"  lol

That is the remotest of possibilities but... still many model runs to go.

It's tracking just E of CC and most of us get a good dump of snow and sleet.

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not to be hypocritical....we are still 4 days out, so another amp shift would not surprise me, and QPF still may be overdone....but yea, super moped was never happening.

Given that the amped solutions are driven by northern stream phasing, and that's a historically poorly sampled region, a few more swings in the next 48 hours would not shock me.

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4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Given that the amped solutions are driven by northern stream phasing, and that's a historically poorly sampled region, a few more swings in the next 48 hours would not shock me.

Yes.

Really puts things into perspective how silly a few were for locking in the super amped crap. Always unlikely with no blocking and a PV breathing down its neck. I've said it a million times....resolve the $ht yourself, develop a valid postulation, and utilize the models as guidance....too many folks forecast backwards, and are thus prone to wildly swinging along with guidance like a weenie in the wind.

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10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes.

Really puts things into perspective how silly a few were for locking in the super amped crap. Always unlikely with no blocking and a PV breathing down its neck. I've said it a million times....resolve the $ht yourself, develop a valid postulation, and utilize the models as guidance....too many folks forecast backwards, and are thus prone to wildly swinging along with guidance like a weenie in the wind.

Two of your posts disappeared.  Does that mean you're not getting 20"?   :lol:

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