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January 2019 Discussion II


Typhoon Tip

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Just now, NYCweatherNOW said:

It’s digging by the gulf literally. No model has the low pressure that south than the NAM. And that high pressure is moving in from the Alberta at a faster rate than let’s say GFS. Hopefully that PV pressing down shows up more on the future runs.

It's not digging though. Way more flat than most guidance. Not pumping heights and cutting to Rochester. 

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4 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

nam’s digging by the gulf literally at the of its run.. No model has the low pressure that south than the NAM. And that high pressure is moving in from the Alberta at a faster rate than let’s say GFS. Hopefully that PV pressing down shows up more on the future runs.

You can see on the two panels that the GFS has the thrust of the leading edge of the PV pushing down more in the upper plains, while the NAM is pushing down more toward us and less out west.

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5 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

why?

The orientation of the PV is not favorable.  Look at the lobes and see how the Low reacts in the overall flow.  You want the high pressure to come in stronger and faster when the Low is at its lowest point in the southwest.  The high pressure should not weaken that much but apparently is, which in turn alows the low to meet less resistance to move north not to mention a little slow exiting, weak southeast ridge to help

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1 minute ago, Greg said:

The orientation of the PV is not favorable.  Look at the lobes and see how the Low reacts and the overall flow.  You want the high pressure to comme in stronger and faster when the Low is at its lowest point in the southwest.  The high pressure should not weaken that much but apparently is which in turn alows the low to meet less resistance to move north not to mention a little slow exiting, weak southeast ridge to help

The nam is showing that and also ukmet but that’s not enough yet

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3 minutes ago, Greg said:

The orientation of the PV is not favorable.  Look at the lobes and see how the Low reacts in the overall flow.  You want the high pressure to come in stronger and faster when the Low is at its lowest point in the southwest.  The high pressure should not weaken that much but apparently is, which in turn alows the low to meet less resistance to move north not to mention a little slow exiting, weak southeast ridge to help

are you talking about the current GFS? or past runs?

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4 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

are you talking about the current GFS? or past runs?

I'm talking about the Euro, GFS, ICON, and CMC. The trends show it but in varing degrees. Watch the Euro tonight and see. Trust me, I would love to be wrong on this but too much evidence supports otherwise.

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